32 replies to this topic

[Vibhu batra]

This is how the ATP rankings of Top-30 looked like just before the start of Australian Open, 2013 on 14th January, 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you know, Grand Slams are the most yielding in terms of not only the prize money but also of Ranking Points, so in these 7 days, I have been virtually flooded with queries & every one seems to be asking :

 

 

 

 

 

 

(i) Will Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer be ranked No. 1 after Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

(ii) How many points will Rafael Nadal lose for withdrawing from Australian Open, 2013? Will Rafa Nadal drop out from Top-4 for the first time in almost 8 years? What will be his ranking post Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

For every one's information, ever since, 6th June, 2005, there hasn't been a single week when Rafa Nadal has been ranked outside Top-4.

 

 

(iii) How much the points difference will be between Novak Djokovic & Roger Federer after Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

(iv) Will Novak Djokovic still be No. 1 if Roger Federer wins the Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

 

(v)  What would be the ATP points of Top 4 be in the ATP Ranking points to be declared on 28th January, 2013 (after Aus Open, 2013)?

 

 

(vi) Will Andy Murray reach No. 2 if he wins Aus Open, 2013 or if he reaches the final of Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

(vii) How many ranking points are at stake during Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

(viii) As Juan Martin Del potro has lost in the 3rd Round of Australian Open, 2013, will we see a fall in rankings for him?

 

 

 

(ix) How far can David Ferrer go in the rankings if he reaches the Quarter Finals or semi-finals or finals of Australian Open, 2013 or wins it?

 

 

 

(x) What are the ranking scenarios for Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tipsarevic, Richard Gasquet and Nicolas Almargo at Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

 xi) The surprise package of Australian Open, 2013 has been the 36th Ranked Jeremy Chardy who has surprised every one by reaching the Quarter Finals of Australian Open, 2013. Read on this detailed explanation to know how much improvement will we see in his rankings post Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

So, for getting the answers to all these questions, please read on ---

 

 

 

 

 

 

 A picture of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic shaking hands during a practice session at Australian Open, 2013 (also you can see Paul Annacone and Severin Luthi).

 

 

Will Djokovic or Federer be No. 1 after Australian Open, 2013? For getting the answer, please read on -----

[Vibhu batra]

Before we go any further, let me firstly remind you how many ATP ranking points are at stake in the Grand slams including Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

1. The winner gets 2000 points.

2. The losing finalist gets 1200 points.

3. The losing Semi-finalist gets 720 points each.

4. The losing Quarter-Finalist gets 360 points each.

5. The loser of Round of 16 (Round-4) gets 180 points each.

6. The loser of Round of 32 (Round-3) takes 90 points each.

 

7. The loser of Round of 64 (Round-2) gets 45 points each.

 

8. The loser of Round of 128 (Round-1) gets 10 points each.

[Vibhu batra]

How many points the Top 10  have to defend at the Australian Open, 2013?

 

 

Roger Federer had lost in the Semi-finals at Aus Open, 2012, so he has to defend 720 points at Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Novak Djokovic is the defending champion as he had won the Aus Open 2012 , so, Djokovic will be defending 2000 points at Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Rafael Nadal had lost in the Finals of Aus Open, 2012, so he had to defend 1200 points at Aus Open, 2013. Thus, Nadal will lose out whole of these 1200 points as he has skipped Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Andy Murray had lost in the Semi-finals at Aus Open, 2012 to Djokovic, so he has to defend 720 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

David Ferrer lost in the Quarter Finals of Aus Open, 2012, so Ferrer is defending 360 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Tomas Berdych lost in the Quarter Finals of Aus Open, 2012, so Berdych is defending 360 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Del Potro had lost in the Quarter Finals of Aus Open, 2012, so Delpo had to defend 360 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Tsonga lost in the 4th Round of Aus Open, 2012, so Tsonga is defending only 180 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Tipsarevic had lost in the 3rd round of Aus Open, 2012, so Tipsarevic had to defend only 90 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Richard Gasquet lost in the 4th Round of Aus Open, 2012, so Gasquet is defending only 180 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

 

 

Nicolas Almargo lost in the 4th Round of Aus Open, 2012, so Almargo is defending only 180 points at the Aus Open, 2013.

[Vibhu batra]

The maximum points that :::

 

 

 

 

Roger Federer can gain by winning Aus Open, 2013 is 1280 points (2000 points - 720 points deduction for 2012 S.F.) i.e. he can reach a maximum of 11545 points (10265+1280) on 28th January, 2013.

 

 

Novak Djokovic can gain by winning Aus Open, 2013 is 0 points (2000 points - 2000 points deduction for Winning 2012 Aus Open),

 

Andy Murray can gain by winning Aus Open, 2013 is 1280 points (2000 points - 720 points deduction for 2012 S.F.) i.e. Murray can reach a maximum of 9280 points (8000+1280) on 28th January, 2013.

[Vibhu batra]

Now, here is the discussion on the ATP ranking scenario post Australian Open, 2013 of each of these Top 10 players

 

 

 

 

Novak Djokovic :::

 

 

 

As you read above that Novak Djokovic is defending 2000 Points, so, just in case, if Djokovic loses in Quarter Finals, he will have a net loss of 1640 (2000-360 points for reaching Q.F.'s). In that case, his points on 28th January, 2013 (after Aus Open) will be 12920-1640 = 11280.

 

 

 

& in that case, if Federer manages to win Australian Open, 2013, will be on 10265+1280 = 11545 points & thus, Federer will regain #1 ranking on 28th January, 2013.

 

 

 So, for Djokovic to ensure that his No. 1 ranking is 100% safe after Australian Open, 2013 has to ensure that he wins his Quarter-final match vs Tomas Berdych.

 

 

   If Djokovic manages to win his Quarter-Final Match at Australian Open, then, Djokovic will be on 11,640 points (even if he loses the semi-final match) & thus, his #1 ranking will be 100% safe on 28th January, 2013. (after Aus Open, 2013).

[Vibhu batra]

Roger Federer

 

 

 

As explained above, maximum points that Roger Federer can gain by winning Australian Open will take him to 11,545 points on 28th January, 2013.

 

 

 

In very simple words, for Federer to reach No. 1 on 28th January, 2013 immediately after Australian Open, 2013, the following two results are needed:

 

 

 

Novak Djokovic needs to lose on or before the Quarter-Finals of Australian Open, 2013

 

 

& Roger Federer needs to win Australian Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Federer's No. 2 ranking is 100% safe under all scenarios.

[Vibhu batra]

Andy Murray :::

 

 

 

The maximum points that Murray can reach if he wins Aus Open, 2013 is 9280 points.

 

 

As explained above, even if Roger Federer loses in the 4th Round of Aus Open, 2013 will be on 9725 points and even, if Murray wins Australian Open, 2013 will be on 9280 points.

 

 

Thus, Murray will not be able to snatch No. 2 ranking from Federer after Australian Open, 2013.

 

 

 

But, there is a remote possibility that David Ferrer might just snatch No. 3 ranking from Andy Murray if David Ferrer manages to win Australian Open, 2013 & Murray loses in the Q.F. or S.F. stage of Australian Open, 2013. As, in that scenario, Ferrer will be on 8145 points and Murray will be on 7640 (if Murray loses in the Q.F.) or 8000 points (if Murray loses in the S.F.) of Australian Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Thus, for Murray to be 100% sure of keeping his #3 ranking needs to reach the finals of Australian Open, 2013 or hope, David Ferrer doesn't win Australian Open, 2013.

[Vibhu batra]

David Ferrer :::

 

 

 

It is 100% sure that David Ferrer will be the new No. 4 on 28th January, 2013 replacing Rafael Nadal who as I explained above will drop out from Top 4 ATP Rankings for the first time in 8 years. His last ranking outside Top- 4 was No. 5 ranking that was recorded on 23rd May, 2005 (immediately before the start of French Open, 2005).

 

 

 

 

Also, David Ferrer might just snatch No. 3 ranking from Andy Murray if David Ferrer manages to win Australian Open, 2013 & Murray loses in the Q.F. or S.F. stage of Australian Open, 2013. As, in that scenario, Ferrer will be on 8145 points and Murray will be on 7640 (if Murray loses in the Q.F.) or 8000 points (if Murray loses in the S.F.) of Australian Open, 2013

[Vibhu batra]

Rafael Nadal :::::

 

 

 

Rafael Nadal who as I explained above will drop out from Top 4 ATP Rankings for the first time in 8 years. His last ranking outside Top- 4 was No. 5 ranking that was recorded on 23rd May, 2005 (immediately before the start of French Open, 2005).

 

 

Rafael Nadal points as on 28th January, 2013 will be 5400. Tomas Berdych can snatch No. 5 ranking from Rafael Nadal post Australian Open, 2013, if Berdych manages to reach final of Australian Open, 2013 (as Berdych will be on 5520 points if he manages to reach Finals of Aus Open, 2012).

 

 

 

Else, it is almost sure that Rafael Nadal will be ranked No. 5 on 28th January, 2013 (post Aus Open, 2013).

 

 

 

 

 

 

PS: Did you know, Rafael Nadal is making a comeback in February, 2013 after almost 215 days & his 1st match is scheduled at Chilean Open on 6th February, 2013, read more about it here.

[Vibhu batra]

Tomas Berdych ::

 

 

 

 

If Berdych loses in the Q.F., he will be on 4680 points

 

 

If Berdych loses in the Semi-finals, he will be on 5520 points.

 

 

If Berdych loses in the finals, he will be on 6320 points

 

 

& if Berdych wins the Aus Open, 2013, he will be on 7120 points.

 

 

 

 Thus, if Berdych manages to win Aus Open, 2013, he will be the new No. 4, David Ferrer will be No. 5 & Rafa Nadal will be No. 6 on 28th January, 2013 (post Aus Open, 2013).

[Vibhu batra]

Del Potro:

 

 

 

Del Potro lost out in the 3rd round of Aus Open, 2013, so, he will lose out 270 points (360 points deductions for 2012 & 90 points for 2013's 3rd round) & thus, Del Potro will be on 4120 points on 28th January, 2013 (after Aus Open, 2013).

[Vibhu batra]

Tsonga ::

 

 

 

As, Tsonga had lost in R4 of 2012 A.O., so Tsonga is defending only 180 points.

 

 

So, if Tsonga loses in the Q.F. of 2013 A.O., Tsonga will be on 3555 points.

 

 

 If Tsonga loses in the Semis of 2013 A.O., Tsonga will be on 3915 points.

 

 

  If Tsonga loses in the finals of 2013 A.O., he will be on 4395 pts.

 

 

  If Tsonga wins 2013 A.O., he will be on 5195 pts.

 

 

 

  At best, Tsonga can reach #5 even if he wins Australian Open, 2013.

[Poorna]

All my confusions clarified now!! thanks a ton Vibhu!!

 

and i wanna see roger again in top of the world!!! me no liking djoker at top!

 

and missing rafa!! hope he come back fit in feb!!

[Vibhu batra]

Tipsarevic ::

 

 

 

was defending 90 points from Australian Open, 2012 & by virtue of losing out/retiring out from Round-4 @ Aus Open, 2013 will get 180 points, thus a net gain of 90 points. Thus, on 28th January, 2013,  Tipsy will on 3180 points.

 

 

 

 

 

Nicolas Almargo will snatch No. 9 ranking from Tipsarevic if Almargo manages to reach the Finals of Australian Open, 2013.

[Vibhu batra]

Jeremy Chardy ::

 

 

 

 

 

The surprise package has been the 36th ranked Jeremy Chardy who has managed to reach Quarter Finals of Australian Open, 2013. Even if Chardy loses the Quarter-final to Andy Murray, then also is assured of 26th Rank post Australian Open, 2013 as he will have 1420 points on 28th January, 2013.

 

 

If by chance, Chardy manages to beat Andy Murray and reach the semi-finals, then Chardy will assure himself an ATP ranking of 20 post Australian Open, 2013.

 

 

& if by chance, Chardy reaches the final, he will be ranked No. 12 post Australian Open, 2013.

 

 

 

& if Chardy, wins Australian Open, 2013, his ATP Ranking will be #9 post Australian Open, 2013. 

 

 

 

This is how fast rankings change if you do well at Grand Slams.

 

 

 

 

For any query, drop in a comment or follow me on any of the social networking sites.

[DenizYildiz]

Thanks a lot for infos im hoping for roger to win, berdych to beat djoker

[Yami]

Thanx 4 the post Vibhu The 1st name coming to my mind after reading this post was Deniz and am glad he has already read it.

And I feel really bad 4 Nadal

[sausan]

Thanks a lot for infos im hoping for roger to win, berdych to beat djoker

 

Yeah, i hope that so.

 

Thanks Vibuh.

[DenizYildiz]

Hey yami thanks a lot for you still remember about our old posts

[Yami]

Haha yes how could hav I forgotten,I had made a mistake there afterall .

 

 

 

 

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