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ATP Ranking scenarios post BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013

BNP Paribas Masters Indian Wells ATP ATP 1000 Novak Djokovic roger federer andy murray rafael nadal david ferrer atp ranking possibilities atp ranking scenarios

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 01:26 AM

As you all will be aware that BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells, 2013 main draw starts from 7th March, 2013. In case, you are yet to see the draw & seedings, you can see it here.

 

 

 

As, BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells, 2013 is an ATP-1000 tournament & as we have seen in the past, ATP-1000 tournaments usually play a crucial role in the rankings. Also, BNP Paribas OPen, Indian Wells, 2013 promises to be a cracker from an ATP ranking point of view.

 

 

top4.jpg

 

(After 9 months, we are seeing the Big 4 of Mens Tennis back in action in a tournament)

 

 


Before, we go any further, let us firstly look at the last announced ATP points of the Top 30. These are the points that ATP last announced on 4th March, 2013.

 

 

 

screenshot_from_2013-03-05_023506.png

 

 

 

So, every one seems to be asking :



(i) Will there be a change in the rankings of Top-4 after BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013?


(ii) Will Roger Federer be still ranked #2 if he fails to defends his title at BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013?


(iii) How much the points difference will be between Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal after BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013?


(iv) Can Andy Murray snatch No. 2 ranking from Roger Federer after BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013?


(v) What will be the ATP points of Top 4 be in the ATP Ranking points to be declared on 17th March, 2013 (after BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013)?


(vi) Also, as John Isner is the losing finalist of 2012 BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells, so he is defending 600 points, so, will he be able to remain in Top-20? Also, will this be the first time ever in the ATP ranking history that an American player won't be in Top 20 or can Sam Querrey reach Top-20?

 

 

 

(vii) Also, as Rafael Nadal is making comeback on hard court events (after playing 3 clay court events in 2013), will we see Rafa Nadal regaining the #4 ranking after BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013 from David Ferrer?

 

 

For getting the answers to all these questions about ranking scenario and possibilities during & immediately after BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells, 2013, please read on.


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 03:07 AM

Before we go any further, let me firstly remind you how many ATP points are at stake at BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells, 2013?


1. The winner will get 1000 ATP points.


2. The losing finalist will get 600 ATP points.


3. The losing Semi-finalist will get 360 ATP points each.


4. The losing Quarter-Finalist will get 180 ATP points each.


5. The loser of Round of 16 will get 90 points each.


6. The loser of Round of 32 takes 45 points.


7. The loser of Round of 64 gets ATP 25 points (but seeded players who get a bye from the Round of 128 will get only 10 ATP points for losing out in the Round of 64).


8. The loser of Round of 128 (effectively Round of 96) to get 10 ATP points each (but wild card entrants who lose out in the first round don't get any points).


A qualifier who loses out in the first Round gets 26 ATP Points.


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#3 Vibhu batra

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:22 AM

How many points the Top 8 have to defend in the BNP Paribas Open, 2013?

 

 

 

Novak Djokovic lost in the semi-finals to John Isner in 2012,so, Djokovic will be defending 360 points.

 

 

Roger Federer is the defending champion, so he has to defend 1000 points.

 

 

 

Andy Murray lost in the 2nd Round of 2012 Indian Wells,so, Murray has only 10 points to defend.

 

 

David Ferrer lost in the 3rd round of 2012 Indian Wells, so he is defending only 45 points.

 

 

Rafa Nadal lost in the semi-finals of 2012 Indian Wells to Federer, so he is defending 360 points.

 

 

Tomas Berdych lost in the 4th round of 2012 Indian Wells, so he is defending 90 points.

 

 

Del Potro lost in the Q.F. of 2012 Indian Wells, so he is defending 180 points.

 

 

Tsonga lost in the 4th round of 2012 Indian Wells, so he is defending 90 points.


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#4 Vibhu batra

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 02:20 AM

Here is the PDF chart of the per round calculation of ATP points of Top-8

 

 

 

Attached File  indian wells 2013 ONS.pdf   309.34KB   448 downloads

 

 

 

PS: Feel Free to download it to understand how points are added & subtracted.


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#5 Vibhu batra

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 02:35 AM

From the above calculation sheet, these are the main ranking scenario changes that we can see after Indian Wells, 2013

 

 

 

 

i) Novak Djokovic will be #1 even if he loses in the 2nd round.

 

 

ii) Andy Murray will snatch No. 2 ATP Ranking from Roger Federer if ::

 

 

 a ) If Andy Murray wins Indian Wells, 2013 as in that case, Murray will be on 9170 points & Federer (even if he loses in the finals) will be only on 9135 points

 

or

 

b ) If Andy Murray reaches the finals of Indian Wells, 2013 & Federer loses on or before the Quarter-final stage of BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells 2013.

 

 

 

 iii) Andy Murray's No. 3 ranking is 100% sure in all scenarios.

 

 

 

 iv) Rafael Nadal can snatch No. 4 ranking back from David Ferrer after Indian Wells, 2013 only if Nadal wins the BNP PARIBAS OPEN 2013 & Ferrer loses in or before the 4th Round of Indian Wells, 2013.

 

 

 v) Rest as you can see, Berdych, Del Potro and Tsonga are unlikely to move up in rankings as the above chart showed you in details.


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#6 Vibhu batra

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 02:57 AM

Its the 40th anniversary of ATP Rankings. Every single week of these 40 years, at least one American player has always been in the Top-20.

 

 

But, unfortunately, there is a great chance that this will be the first time in 40 years that an American player won't be in Top 20.

 

 

 

How can John Isner or Sam Querrey avoid this & the probable, unfortunate sad headline (Death Of Men's Tennis in America) that we will probably witness if John Isner drops out of Top 20.

 

 

John Isner :::

 

 

 

John Isner was the losing finalist of 2012 BNP PARIBAS Open, Indian Wells, so he is defending 600 points. As you can see from the rankings of Top 30, to remain in Top 20, John Isner needs to have at least 1750 ATP points after Indian Wells, 2013 to ensure he is in ATP Top 20...

 

That means, John Isner shouldn't lose more than 375 points at Indian Wells, if he is to stay in ATP TOP-20 after Indian Wells, 2013.

 

 What that means, is that John Isner needs 225 points to ensure, he is in Top 20. So, that means, John Isner needs to reach Semi-final stage of Indian Wells, 2013 to ensure Top-20 ranking. Thou, at this point of time, if he reaches just the Quarter-Finals, its a very strong possibility that he will be out from Top-20.

 

 

 

 Sam Querrey (SQ) ::

 

 

 He is defending only 25 points at Indian Wells, but, as I explained above,  the cut-off for Top-20 will be close to 1750 points. Thus, Sam Querrey needs about 90 points or needs to reach Round-4 of Indian Wells, 2013 to have any chance for reaching Top-20 after Indian Wells, 2013.


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#7 Vibhu batra

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 02:58 AM

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#8 Vibhu batra

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 01:19 PM

Updates ::: 

 

 

 

1) David Ferrer unfortunately lost in the 2nd Round, so as explained above Rafa Nadal has a chance of regaining #4 ranking :).

 

 

 

2) John Isner lost out in 2nd round, so he will be out from Top-20. Now, as explained above, for Sam Query to reach the Top-20, he needs to reach the Round-4..


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#9 sausan

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 04:35 PM

I feel sad for Ferrer and Tipsarevic :(


When life gives you a hundred reasons to cry, show life that you have a Roger Federer to smile.

Thanks Kishore :)

 

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#10 Bingo31

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 01:58 AM

I feel sad for Ferrer and Tipsarevic :(

Sorry for Ferrer, but at the same time, happy for Kevin Anderson because I am also a South African.



#11 sausan

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:19 AM

So, good luck for him :)


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Thanks Kishore :)

 

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#12 Bingo31

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:34 AM

So, good luck for him :)

Thanks for that. I am a fanatical Roger fan. He is such a special player and plays with such style, "like poetry in motion" He is seriously the best ever, love watching him, always will, he is also a fantastic ambassador for the sport and in general.



#13 Guest_Narcissa_*

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 06:45 PM

Exciting tourney this time around! Fingers crossed for Roger to win. We are yet to have a title this year. And as usual loving the way he's mowing down early rounders. Cheers and lots of love and luck !
And of course I need to mention--- amazing site you have here! Loved looking around. :)

#14 Guest_Vicky_*

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 05:47 PM

I think the most possible scenarios is Andy losing in the final to Djokovic and Federer losing in the semi finals. In that case, Federer will still be able to retain his #2 ranking. But hoping Roger wins!



#15 Vibhuism

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 09:37 AM

Now, that Nadal has defeated Roger Federer in the Quarter-Finals, these are the big two changes in the rankings that are possible :::::::

 

 

 

(i) If Andy Murray reaches the final, he will be No. 2 this Sunday night (after Indian Wells).

 

 

(ii) If Rafa Nadal wins the Indian Wells 2013 title, he will regain #4 ranking from David Ferrer.


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#16 Guest_Ceizeley_*

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 10:10 AM

I want Rafa and Novak in the finals... But it would be fun to jumble the rankings... Let's say Rafa wins the title against Andy. Thus, 2,3,4,5 will all be jumbled... #1 still Novak, #2 be Andy, #3 be Roger, #4 be Rafa, #5 be David... ☺

#17 Bingo31

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 09:48 PM

I think the most possible scenarios is Andy losing in the final to Djokovic and Federer losing in the semi finals. In that case, Federer will still be able to retain his #2 ranking. But hoping Roger wins!

 

 

I think the most possible scenarios is Andy losing in the final to Djokovic and Federer losing in the semi finals. In that case, Federer will still be able to retain his #2 ranking. But hoping Roger wins!



#18 Bingo31

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 09:55 PM

Vicky, Andy is seeded to meet Djokovic in the semi-final and now that Fed has lost, I would love Rafa to win the title. If he cant, then anyone other than Murray or Djokovic to win. Sad that Fed was playing with a back problem, but he'll be back and he must aim to win another slam!!!



#19 Bingo31

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 10:01 PM

I want Rafa and Novak in the finals... But it would be fun to jumble the rankings... Let's say Rafa wins the title against Andy. Thus, 2,3,4,5 will all be jumbled... #1 still Novak, #2 be Andy, #3 be Roger, #4 be Rafa, #5 be David... ☺

Why would you want the rankings to change, apart from Rafa. I am a huge roger fan and would like him to stay at #2. I hope Nadal wins the title or somebody new, definitely not Andy or Novak!!!



#20 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 10:12 PM

I am with you on that Bingo31!

 

Specially after seeing the concern Rafa showed towards Roger after their match yesterday.  Yes, in the sad abscence of Roger, now I too would like to see Rafa take the title at Indian Wells this year .... or Jo Wilfred Tsonga or Juan Martin DelPotro  ........


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