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Discussion on Rafael Nadal's ranking leading up to Roland Garros, French Open 2013

rafael nadal rafa nadal nadal ranking atp atp ranking possibility rafa nadal ranking rafa nadal ranking discussion

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 12:42 AM

This detailed post by me was inspired by a tweet from @svenja_mastro in which he asked is there any possibility that Rafael Nadal might get back to Top 4 before the start of French Open, 2013? The main idea behind this question is that can Rafael Nadal get the 4th seeding for this year's French Open?

 

 

 

                                                                                                                       flying rafael.jpeg

                                                                    

                                        (File picture of Rafael Nadal jumping high for a smash against Juan Martin Del Potro in an exhibition match on the World Tennis Day at Madison Square Garden)

 

 

 

As you all know, Rafael Nadal is currently playing in Indian Wells & is scheduled to play his 3rd round match later today. As, I had recently explained that Rafael Nadal after spending almost 7 years & 8 months in the Top-4 moved down to No. 5 in the rankings after Australian Open, 2013. So, as a result of the No. 5 ranking, Nadal got the No. 5 seeding at Indian Wells & thus, is scheduled to play vs Federer in the Quarter-Finals of BNP Paribas Open, 2013.

 

 

Before, I get in to discussion about Rafa's ranking, let me remind you that players seeded 5th to 8th get to play players seeded 1st to 4th in the Quarter-Finals. Thus, if a player of Rafa Nadal's quality gets to play any of the Top 3 guys in the Quarters, that in itself is a semi-final.

 

 

This discussion will cover both scenarios:

 

 

(i) Can Rafael Nadal regain his No. 4 ranking immediately after Italian Open, 2013 (just before the start of French Open, 2013) & thus get the #4 seeding for French Open, 2013?

 

(ii) Will Rafael Nadal stay in Top-8 even if by chance, Rafa Nadal fails to do well in Barcelona, Monte Carlo or Mutua Madrid Open or Italian Open, 2013?

 

 

So, for getting all these questions including how many points Rafael Nadal has to defend before the start of French Open, 2013 vis-a-vis other players namely Ferrer, Berdych, Del Potro, Tsonga, please read on.

 

 

 

 

Update as of 12th May,2013 ----------   Now, with only Madrid finals & Italian Open left, if Rafa Nadal wins Madrid Open final vs Stan Wawrinka and then manages to win Italian Open (Rome Masters), 2013, he will regain #4 ranking from David Ferrer and will thus, will get #4 seeding at French Open, 2013. For more details, click here. 

 


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#2 Vibhu batra

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 12:02 AM

This is how the points table as announced by ATP on 4th March, 2013 (looked like).

 

 

screenshot_from_2013-03-05_023506.png

 

 

As you can clearly see, that points difference of Rafael Nadal from the Top-3 is almost more than 2000 points, so at this point of time, its almost dead sure that Rafael Nadal won't be able to get back in to Top-3 before French Open, 2013. So, the most realistic chance for Rafa to get back to Top-4 is by replacing David Ferrer.

 

 

 

Firstly, let me quickly explain you the break-up of Rafael Nadal points. As on 4th March, 2013, Rafael Nadal is on 6105 points. The break-up of that is as following ::

 

 

Grand Slams

 

i) French Open, 2012 : 2000 points

 

ii) Wimbledon, 2012 :     45 points

 

 

 

ATP 1000

 

 

i) Indian Wells 2012 : 360 points

 

 

ii) Miami 2012 : 360 points

 

 

iii) Monte Carlo 2012 (thou, not a mandatory ATP-1000 tournament, points from Monte Carlo gets counted in the list of 6 ATP-500, ATP-250 tournaments) : 1000 points

 

 

iv) Madrid 2012 : 90 points

 

 

v) Italian Open, 2012 : 90 points

 

 

 

 As per ATP rules (rule passed in November, 2011), in the ranking points of Top-30 committed players, the best results from 6 tournaments (those can be ATP-250, ATP-500 tournament or Monte Carlo Masters or Olympics or Davis Cup or Challengers or Futures or World Team Championship) are to be added. But, the only condition is that the committed player needs to play four ATP-500 tournaments with at least one ATP-500 tournament after US Open.

 

 

Thus, if any committed player plays only 2 ATP-500 tournaments with no ATP-500 tournament after US Open, he will be able to count only the ATP points from his best 4 Tournaments (Non Masters, Non Grand slams but can include Monte Carlo Masters points).

 

 

Therefore, the best 4 results (ATP-500, ATP-250, Olympics, Davis Cup, Challengers, Futures, WTT) of Rafa Nadal in the preceding 52 weeks :

 

 

(i) Monte Carlo Masters, 2012 : 1000 points

 

(ii) Barcelona, 2012 : 500 points

 

(iii) Sao Paulo, 2013 : 250 points

 

(iv) Acapulco, 2013 : 500 points

 

 

If you have a quick look-up at the points break-up of Rafael Nadal's points on the ATP Web-site, you will notice that he has a zero point for Valencia as well as Tokyo. This zero pointer for both tournaments will continue, until and unless Rafa Nadal plays in 2 more ATP-500 tournaments with one of those ATP-500 tournament being after US Open. As soon, as he plays in those two ATP-500 tournaments, you will notice that both these zeros will be replaced with his next 2 best results.

 

 

 

Now, that we have clarified about the break-up of points, lets move to the next segment on how many points Rafael Nadal and other players namely David Ferrer, Berdych, Del Potro & Tsonga have to defend before the French Open, 2013.


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#3 Vibhu batra

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:07 AM

Now, here is the detailed chart of points that the No. 4 to No. 9 seeds have to defend before the start of French Open, 2013

 

 

 

 

Attached File  rafa points.PDF   150.27KB   462 downloads

 

 

As you can see from the chart, Rafa Nadal has to defend 3310 points (thou, he has a back-up of 250 & 150 points which can be adjusted against Monte Carlo or Barcelona, if points from these two tournaments of this year fall short).

 

 

 

Also, as Rafael Nadal has announced that he will be skipping Miami Masters (Sony Open Tennis) 2013, so Rafa's remaining tournaments before French Open, 2013 :

 

 

i) Indian Wells (currently ongoing)

 

ii) Monte Carlo Masters

 

ii) Barcelona

 

iv) Mutua Madrid Open

 

 v) Italian Open

 

 

 

The current points difference between Nadal & Ferrer is close to 525 points (updated after Ferrer's 2nd round loss)

 

 

The ATP ranking scenarios for Indian Wells, 2013 has been discussed in-depth details right here.

 

 

As Rafa is all set to withdraw from Miami Masters, the points difference will rise up to 885 points (if Ferrer reaches QF of Miami Masters and also, if Rafa manages to reach SF of Indian Wells) after Miami Masters.

 

 

Monte Carlo Masters : David Ferrer has zero points to defend at Monte Carlo, but, his points will get added from Monte Carlo only if he reaches the semi-final (above 250). Thus, even if Rafa wins Monte CARLO & Ferrer loses in the quarter-finals, the point difference will be 885 points.

 

 

Barcelona : Again Ferrer has a back-up of 250 more points, so even if Ferrer loses before the finals of Barcelona (inspite of being the runner-up) will lose only 50 points. Thus, again if Rafa wins Barcelona 2013, then also point difference will be 885 points.

 

 

Madrid : If Rafa Nadal is to regain No. 4 ranking (before French Open, 2013), then Nadal has to win Mutua Madrid Open, 2013. If Rafa manages to win Madrid Masters 2013 & Ferrer loses in the quarter-finals, then Rafa will be ahead by 25 points.

 

 

 Italian Open (Rome Masters): Rafael Nadal will again have to successfully defend his Italian Open title and hope, Ferrer doesn't go beyond semi-final stage like last year.

 

 

 If all these 6 results go in Rafa Nadal's favor, then only will he be ranked No. 4 after Italian Open, 2013 & thus, get the 4th seeding at French Open, 2013. Even then, the ranking points difference will only be 25 points.

 

 


PS: Let us suppose, if Rafa Nadal loses in the Quarter-Finals of Indian Wells, 2013, then he will lose 180 more points more. Even, in that case, Rafa can get back No. 4 ranking provided Ferrer has an early lose in any of the above mentioned tournament.

 

 

Thus, at this point of time, it looks like a miracle if Rafa Nadal can reach the Top-4 before French Open, 2013 as he has to defend almost 3300 points & needs to win all 4 clay tournaments (Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Miami & Rome) to have any chance of regaining No. 4 ranking before French Open, 2013.


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#4 Vibhu batra

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:18 AM

As I discussed in my Indian Wells ranking scenarios, Rafael Nadal is back to No. 4 after winning the Indian Wells title.

 

 

 

Now, the next realistic question is can Rafael Nadal remain in Top-8 even after he skips Miami Masters, 2013?

 

 

 

As you saw from the above chart, Nadal leads by about 2445 points from the 9th Ranked Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic also has to defend 685 points & thus, if Rafael Nadal reaches the quarter-finals of any of the two masters (be it Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome), its 100% sure that Rafa will remain in Top-8 before the start of French Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Just another small clarification, in the draw of any ATP tournament, No. 1 to No. 4 seeds can clash against any of the seeds between 5 to 8.... So, until and unless, Rafa Nadal gets back to Top 4, in the Quarter-Final draw of French Open, he can get any of the Top 3 (namely Djokovic or Federer or Murray).

 

 

 

 PS: This thread is being updated regularly.


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#5 Bingo31

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 04:47 AM

So many possibilities, also if Murray wins Miami and Fed drops to #3. (not going to happen)

In the semi-finals of Roland Garros, if all goes according to seeding and Rafa is back at #4,

who is he likely to play if Fed is say seeded #2? Also who does #5 play in quarter final?

Thanks.



#6 Vibhuism

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 12:43 AM

So many possibilities, also if Murray wins Miami and Fed drops to #3. (not going to happen)

In the semi-finals of Roland Garros, if all goes according to seeding and Rafa is back at #4,

who is he likely to play if Fed is say seeded #2? Also who does #5 play in quarter final?

Thanks.

 

Here are the answers to your qtns :::

 

 

 

(i) If Fed is #2 & Rafa is #4,  see in the semis, it can be either 2 vs 3 or 2 vs 4.... This 2 vs 3 or 2 vs 4 is decided at the time of draw.....

 

 

The only surety is that 1 & 2 won't play each other in the semis & 3 & 4 won't play each other in the semis :).....

 

 

 

(ii) Okay, now coming to Quarter-finals ::

 

 

In Cricket, Soccer or Rugby, draws are quite simple :). I mean, they have 1 vs 8 , 2 vs 7 & so on in the Quarter-finals....

 

 

 

But, in Tennis, in the Quarter-Finals, No. 1 to No. 4 can play any one from No. 5 to No. 8 (which is again decided at the time of draw).......

 

 

It can be No. 1 vs No. 5 or No. 6 or No. 7 or No. 8...............

 

 

 

Only, guarantee is  that No. 1, 2, 3, 4 won't play each other in the Quarters.............

 

 

 

 

Actually, if you read my above post carefully, I started this discussion mainly with the view that as there is a 25% chance that Roger-Rafa can play in the Quarter-finals of French Open, 2013.. So, my idea was to discuss that can Rafa Nadal regain No. 4 ranking before French Open, 2013, so that he doesn't have to play any of these Big 3 before the Semi-final stage....

 

 

Feel free to ask any other question...


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#7 Vibhuism

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 12:52 AM

There are some persons who asked that as Rafa Nadal recently won his 600th match at the ATP level, will he get some exemption from one masters (ATP-1000) tournament? The Answer is No. The ATP Rule for players who have played more than 600 matches or completed 30 years of age, the exemption from one masters is just from the yearly prize Bonus that is given to players at the end of the year. The ATP points system is same for all. Be it a 17 year old or a 35 year old.


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#8 Vibhuism

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 12:59 AM

Ok, now coming to rankings after Miami :; Firstly, please see this detailed ATP Ranking scenarios post Miami here.


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#9 Vibhuism

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 03:04 AM

Thus, if David Ferrer wins Miami 2013 title, he will be on 7450 points while Rafa will remain on 6385 points..

 

 

or a net difference of 1065 points. As I explained in my table above, Ferrer will have to defend only 590 points (at Barcelona, Madrid & Italian Open).

 

 

Also, as explained above, if Rafa Nadal wins Madrid Masters, 2013, then he will have a net gain of 910 points to his points tally... Rafa can only gain points from Madrid Masters, in all other 3 tournaments (namely Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Italian Open), Nadal is the defending champion.

 

 

 

Thus, if David Ferrer reaches even the finals of Miami Masters, 2013, then for Rafa Nadal to regain #4 ranking before French Open, 2013, Rafa will have to win all next 4 tournaments (Barcelona, Monte Carlo, Madrid & Italian Open) and hope, that Ferrer doesn't go beyond Quarter-Finals in Monte Carlo Masters, Semi-finals of both Madrid & Italian Open, 2013.


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#10 Bingo31

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 05:51 AM

Thanks very much for the info, I had no idea that it was decided at the time of the draw.

Then does it apply at all four slams?

I am going from South Africa to Paris and the hi-light of the trip is a ticket to the finals

so I am excited about that and would desperately like Federer to be playing in it. :D



#11 Vibhu batra

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 11:29 AM

Thanks very much for the info, I had no idea that it was decided at the time of the draw.
Then does it apply at all four slams?
I am going from South Africa to Paris and the hi-light of the trip is a ticket to the finals
so I am excited about that and would desperately like Federer to be playing in it. :D



Yes, for all slams, for all ATP, WTA tournaments.


With Murray just 2 matches away from replacing Federer as the No. 2 & with David Ferrer almost sure to keep No. 4 , the French Open draw(from the QF stage) promises to be really-2 tough for the Top-3 including Federer ..


Thou, I cant predict if Roger Federer will play in the finals, but what I can vouch is that you will savor the opportunity of seeing the French Open final for a long-2 time.

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#12 Vibhuism

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Posted 01 April 2013 - 02:44 AM

Now, that David Ferrer lost out in the finals of Miami, he will be ahead by 665 points from Nadal after Miami. As I explained above, if David Ferrer reaches the finals of Monte Carlo, then David Ferrer will almost confirm his 4th seeding at French Open, 2013.


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#13 Venkatesh Sowdarpally

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Posted 03 April 2013 - 04:53 AM

Hey Vibhu...I'm great fan of your site and every article is very informative and self explanative. Though I love anything and everything about our great Champ, this site is THE BEST site for all info with regards to ranking scenarios and just about everything about the game. Thank you very much for all your help!

 

And I have a question for you...now that Murray overtook Fed at #2 and David Ferrer most likely to hang to #4 til French Open....what are the options for Fed to come back to #2 before French open and not face Rafa in Quarters?



#14 Vibhuism

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Posted 03 April 2013 - 06:01 PM

Hey Vibhu...I'm great fan of your site and every article is very informative and self explanative. Though I love anything and everything about our great Champ, this site is THE BEST site for all info with regards to ranking scenarios and just about everything about the game. Thank you very much for all your help!

 

And I have a question for you...now that Murray overtook Fed at #2 and David Ferrer most likely to hang to #4 til French Open....what are the options for Fed to come back to #2 before French open and not face Rafa in Quarters?

 

Thanks Venkatesh for your nice words, your support gives us strength to keep working to make this forum even better for all Tennis fans across the Globe :).

 

 

See, there are two things that we need to discuss here ::::

 

 

i) You need to understand that who can meet in Quarters, As I explained in 5 posts above this (click here to see that) , see in the Quarters any of the Top 4 (1, 2 , 3 or 4 ) can play any one seeded 5 to 8 in the quarters......

 

 

The only guarantee is that 1,2,3 & 4 won't play each other in the quarters.....

 

 

 So, if Rafa gets back to 4th & Federer is 3rd or 2nd, then they won't meet during the Quarter-Final stage, that is 100% sure....

 

 

 

  But, if Rafa is 5th & Federer 3rd or 2nd, then there is 25% chance that Federer can meet Rafa in the quarters....

 

 

  25% chances that Federer might get to play the 6th seeded Berdych in the quarters

 

 

 or 25% chance that Fed might get to play the 7th seeded Del Potro in the quarters

 

 

 

 or 25% chance that Fed might get to play the 8th seeded Tsonga in the quarters

 

 

 

ii) Same thing happens during the semis....

 

 

The only guarantee is that 1st & 2nd won't play each other in the semis

 

 

and 3rd & 4th wont play each other in the semis..

 

 

 It can either be 1 vs 3 or 1 vs 4 in the semis (which is decided at the time of the draw).

 

 

 

 So, yes, if you want to see Federer & Nadal playing each other only in the finals, then hope that they are either 1 & 2 or 3 & 4 else they might just clash before, as I explained above.

 

 

 

 

PS: Feel free to post all your doubts without any hesitation....... (& be ready to handle my doubts about Equity Markets :D :D


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#15 Venkatesh Sowdarpally

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 06:39 AM

Thanks Vibhu for the explanation....I dearly want to see another Fed vs Rafa French Open final (but with the result in our favour though, ofcourse)!!!! And yeah, Equity Markets are my second love after tennis so happy to discuss anything n everything..



#16 Vibhuism

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:00 AM

Just now, added the Ranking scenarios for Monte Carlo right here.

 

 

If David Ferrer reaches the finals of 2013 Monte Carlo, then the chances of getting #4 seeding for French Open, 2013 will almost get negligible.

 

 

 

Also, as we discussed with Rafael Nadal doubtful to play at Madrid Masters, 2013, its getting almost sure, that Rafa Nadal will get #5 seeding at French Open, 2013.


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#17 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 09:37 PM

Now that, David Ferrer has withdrawn from Monte Carlo Rolex Masters, Rafa still has more than a theoretical chance to reach the No. 4 seeding before French Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Had Ferrer reached the finals of Monte Carlo Masters, 2013, it would have been nearly impossible for Rafa to reach #4 seeding before French Open, 2013.

 

 

Rest as I explained, Ferrer won't lose any point because of withdrawal from Monte Carlo Masters.

 

 

 

Scroll down for an interesting scenario.


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#18 sausan

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Posted 12 April 2013 - 02:04 PM

And why Ferrer withdrew from Monte Carlo? :(


When life gives you a hundred reasons to cry, show life that you have a Roger Federer to smile.

Thanks Kishore :)

 

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#19 Vibhuism

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 01:52 AM

And why Ferrer withdrew from Monte Carlo? :(

 

 

Thigh problem which he suffered during Miami 2013 finals.

 

 

 

 

Proceed to the next page for reading more scenarios.


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#20 Vibhuism

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 02:11 AM

Continued :

 

 

 

If Rafa wins Monte Carlo 2013, then as I explained in my Monte Carlo Ranking post,

 

 

 

Ferrer will be on 6970 points

 

 

Nadal will be on 6385 points.

 

 

 

Now, next up is Barcelona ::;

 

 

 

As I explained Ferrer has a back-up of 250 points, so even if Ferru withdraws from Barcelona, he still will be at 6920 points.

 

 

Thou, Nadal too has a back-up of 250 points, but, we have to believe that, he will win it & thus after Barcelona will be at 6385 points

 

 

 

 

Next up is Madrid Masters

 

 

As we discussed, its doubtful if Nadal will play at Madrid Masters, for the detailed discussion on this topic, click here.

 

 

 

Ferrer is defending 180 points, so lets suppose he reaches the QF of Madrid, he will be again on 6970 points.

 

 

While Nadal is defending 90 points, so if Nadal (lets say, reaches the final of Madrid Masters), Rafa will gain 510 points & will be on 6895 points.

 

 

 

Next up is Italian Open (Rome Masters) :::

 

 

 

Ferrer is defending 360 points, so lets suppose he loses in the QF of Rome 2013, Ferrer will lose out 180 points & will be on 6790 points.

 

 

While Nadal is the defending champion, so at best, he can be on 6895 points.

 

 

 

So, here is a scenario in which Nadal can be seeded #4th, even if doesn't win Madrid Masters, but, then again if Rafa skips Madrid or atleast doesn't reach the finals, then surely Rafa will be seeded #5th at French Open, 2013.


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