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ATP Ranking scenarios post Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters 2013

atp ranking scenarios atp rankings roger federer novak djokovic andy murray rafael nadal david ferrer monte carlo monte carlo 2013 monte carlo masters

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 09:47 PM

As you all are aware that Monte Carlo Masters 2013 (the only non mandatory ATP 1000 Masters) tournament is starting from 15th April, 2013.


Thou, its a bit early to be previewing ATP Ranking points changes after Monte Carlo, 2013, but as many of you have asked me can Roger Federer get back No. 2 ranking from Murray or can Rafa Nadal get back No. 4 ranking from David Ferrer, I decided to do this post 10 days in advance :).


This is how ATP Rankings of Top-30 looked like immediately after the end of Miami Masters, of course, the biggest change of the week was Andy Murray replacing Roger Federer as No. 2 & for the first time after 9 years & 4 months, we are not seeing either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal in the ATP Top-2.


top30.png


PS: As Djokovic, Tsonga are playing in the Davis Cup this week-end, so if they both manage to win their matches, we will see an increase of about 80 odd ATP points to their ATP Points tally.



top5.jpg

File picture of Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray in action during the clay court season


So, from an ATP ranking point of view, the following questions are most relevant for Monte Carlo Masters :



(i) Will there be a change in the rankings of Top-4 after Monte Carlo Rolex Masters 2013?


(ii) Will Andy Murray be still ranked No. 2 or can Roger Federer regain the ATP No. 2 ranking after Monte Carlo Rolex Masters 2013?


(iii) How much the points difference will be between Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal after Monte Carlo Masters 2013?


(iv) What will be the ATP points of Top 8 be in the ATP Ranking points to be declared on 22nd April, 2013 (after Monte Carlo Masters 2013)?



(vi) Also, as we all know David Ferrer regained the #4 ranking after Miami Masters, 2013 but will Ferrer still be #4 after Monte Carlo Masters 2013 or can Rafael Nadal regain No. 4 ATP ranking back from Ferrer after Monte Carlo Masters, 2013?



vii) As Del Potro has accepted the wild card for Monte Carlo, 2013, can he snatch No. 6 ranking from Berdych after Monte Carlo, 2013?


viii) Also, the in-form Richard Gasquet will be playing Monte Carlo Rolex 2013, after having to withdraw last year due to an injury, can Gasquet snatch No. 8 ATP Ranking from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga?



For getting the answers to all these questions about ranking scenario and possibilities during & immediately after Monte Carlo Masters, 2013, please read on.

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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 09:42 PM

Before I go any further, let me firstly remind you that Roger Federer isn't in the starting entry list of players at Monte Carlo Masters. Thou, there are rumors going around that Federer might just accept the Wild Card for playing in the Monte Carlo Masters, 2013.

 

 

For a detailed discussion as to why Roger Federer needs a wild card & will he accept it, click here


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 09:42 PM

Before we go any further, let me firstly remind you how many ATP points are at stake in ATP 1000 tournaments including Monte Carlo Masters, 2012?


1. The winner gets 1000 points.


2. The losing finalist gets 600 points.


3. The losing Semi-finalist gets 360 points each.


4. The losing Quarter-Finalist gets 180 points each.


5. The loser of Round of 16 gets 90 points each.


6. The loser of Round of 32 takes 45 points each. (but, the top 8 seeds who get a bye in the Round of 64 will get only 10 points in case they lose out in the Round of 32).


7. The winner of Round of 64 gets 10 points each.



8 points are awarded to first round losers only if the main draw is larger than 56 players in case of ATP 1000 Tournaments.

 

 

 

Also, it needs to be mentioned that the the top 8 seeds get a bye in their first match in ATP 1000 Tournaments having 56 players in the main draw while 32 Top seeds get a bye in a 96 players main draw ATP 1000 Tourny.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 09:42 PM

How ATP Points work for Monte Carlo Masters?

 

 

 

As Monte Carlo Masters is a non-mandatory ATP 1000 (Masters tournaments), so the Top-30 commitment players don't lose any points for not playing in Monte Carlo (or in other words, Monte Carlo points can be replaced with another ATP-500 or ATP-250 or even Davis Cup or Olympics or World Team Championship or even challengers for that matter).

 

 

 

As per ATP rules (rule passed in November, 2011), in the ranking points of Top-30 committed players (apart from 4 grand slams and the mandatory 8 ATP-1000 tournaments), the best results from 6 tournaments (those can be ATP-250, ATP-500 tournament or Monte Carlo Masters or Olympics or Davis Cup or Challengers or Futures or World Team Championship) are to be added.

 

 

But, the only condition is that the Top-30 committed players need to play four ATP-500 tournaments with at least one ATP-500 tournament after US Open.

 

 

Thus, if any committed player plays only 2 ATP-500 tournaments with no ATP-500 tournament after US Open, he will be able to count only the ATP points from his best 4 Tournaments (Non Masters, Non Grand slams but can include Monte Carlo Masters points).

 

 

Thus in a nutshell, to make it easy for you, thou, Monte Carlo is an ATP-1000 tournament giving 1000 points to the winner just like the other 8 mandatory ATP-1000 tournaments but how ever, the points of Monte Carlo Masters are not mandatorily added to the points of players participating in Monte Carlo Masters.


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 09:42 PM

How many points the Top 8 have to defend in the Sony Open Tennis, 2013?

 

 

 

Novak Djokovic was the runner-up of Monte Carlo Masters 2012, so he will be defending 600 points (He has played in only 2 other ATP-500 Tournaments namely Dubai 2013, Beijing 2012 in the preceding 12 months, that's why in his break-up of points, a zero has been added for Valencia 2012).

 

 

 

Andy Murray lost in the Quarter-finals of Monte Carlo Masters, 2012, so, he will be defending 180 points. (he too has played in 2 other ATP-500 tournys namely Barcelona 2012, Tokyo 2013).

 

 

 

Roger Federer hadn't played in Monte Carlo 2012 (so, if he decides to play in Monte Carlo 2013), what ever he gains will be added to his net tally. (he has 3 other ATP-500 tournys namely Basel 2012, Rotterdam & Dubai 2013).

 

 

David Ferrer had lost in the Round-32 of Monte Carlo 2012, but as he completed the commitment of playing in 4 ATP-500 tourny (Barcelona 2012, Beijing 2012 Valencia 2012, Acapulco 2012 & of course, Monte Carlo 2012), in his ATP ranking points, his best 6 results are counted. 

 

 

The minimum of points with which David Ferrer's points earned at Monte Carlo 2013 can be replaced is Bastad's 250 points. Thus, David Ferrer's point will get added only if he gets more than 250 points at Monte Carlo 2013. How ever, Ferrer won't lose out a single point even if he loses in the Round of 64 at Monte Carlo, 2013.

 

 

 

Rafael Nadal is the defending champion of 2012 Monte Carlo Masters. So, he will be defending 1000 points at Monte Carlo 2013, but, he has a back-up of 150 points at Chilean Open, 2013 which can get added to his overall points, just in case, he loses before the Quarter-finals of Monte Carlo Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

Tomas Berdych was the losing semi-finalist of 2012 Monte Carlo Masters. So, he will be defending 360 points at Monte Carlo 2013, but, he has a back-up of 105 points at World Team Championship, 2012 which can get added to his overall points, just in case, he loses before the Quarter-finals of Monte Carlo Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

Del Potro hadn't played at Monte Carlo Masters 2012. Thus, by virtue of playing in Monte Carlo 2013, his commitment of playing in 4 ATP-500 tournaments will get completed ( Basel 2012, Rotterdam 2013, Dubai 2013 & now, Monte Carlo, 2013). Thus, as his Dubai 2013 (SF- 180 points) are uncountable currently, at least, 180 points will get added to Del Potro's points, even if he loses in the 2nd round of Monte Carlo, 2013.

 

 

Thus, by now, one more thing is clear, as soon as an ATP Top-30 commitment player completes his commitment of playing in 4 ATP-500 tournament (with one of them being after US Open), his best 6 results from any where (other than grand slams and 8 mandatory ATP-1000 tournament) get counted.

 

 

 

 

Tsonga lost in the Quarter-Finals at Monte Carlo, 2012, but as he has played 4 ATP-500 tourny (Dubai 2013, Rotterdam 2013, Valencia 2012 & of course, Monte Carlo) & thus, he has a back-up of 105 points of Davis Cup. Thus, even if Tsonga loses before the Quarter-finals of Monte Carlo 2013, he will lose only 180-105 points = 75 points.

 

 

 

 

Also, Richard Gasquet similiarly can replace his Rotterdam 2013 (45 points) if he goes beyond 3rd Round of 2013 Monte Carlo Masters. Thus, Gasquet can snatch No. 8 ranking from Tsonga after Monte Carlo, only if Gasquet reaches the finals & Tsonga has an early exit.


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#6 Vibhuism

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Posted 07 April 2013 - 09:37 PM

 
Here is the per round calculation sheet of Top-8 players post Monte Carlo Rolex Masters 2013
 
 
 
 
 
Attached File  Monte Carlo 2013 ONS.PDF   278.85KB   286 downloads
 
 
 
PS: If Roger Federer doesn't play Monte Carlo 2013, then his ATP Points will remain the same.
 
 
PS: Feel Free to download it to understand how points are added & subtracted.

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#7 Vibhuism

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 01:54 AM

From the above calculation sheet, these are the main ranking scenario changes that we can see after Monte Carlo Masters, 2013

 

 

i) Novak Djokovic will be #1 after Monte Carlo 2013, even if he loses in the 2nd round.

 

 

ii) The most interesting battle as you can see is the No. 2 ranking between Roger Federer and Andy Murray:::

 

 

a ) Roger Federer skips Monte Carlo 2013,

 

 

If Andy Murray loses before the Quarter-finals, then Federer will regain No. 2 ATP Ranking from Andy Murray after Monte Carlo Masters, 2013.

 

 

Thus, in that case, to protect his #2 ranking, Murray will have to reach the Quarter-finals of Monte Carlo Masters, 2013.

 

 

b ) If Roger Federer plays Monte Carlo Masters 2013

 

 

 

 

Then for Murray to retain his No. 2 ranking after Monte Carlo Masters, 2013 will have to go at least one round further than what Roger Federer achieves or manages to reach in.

 

 

Thus, if both Federer & Murray end up losing in the semis of Monte Carlo, 2013, then Roger Federer will regain No. 2 ranking after Monte Carlo, 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

iii) David Ferrer will keep his No. 4 ranking safe from Rafa Nadal under all scenarios.

 

 

For a detailed analysis of Rafael Nadal's ranking leading up to French Open, see this detailed post right here.

 

 

 

iv) Rest as you can see, Del Potro can snatch No. 6 ranking from Berdych if Del Potro reaches the semi-finals of Miami Masters, 2013 & Berdych loses on or before the Q.F. of Monte Carlo, 2013.

 

 

 

For any query, feel free to drop in a comment or add me on any of the social networking sites mentioned in my signature.


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#8 sausan

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 04:07 PM

So that mean, Andy will still No.2 even if he loses in the Quarterfinals???


When life gives you a hundred reasons to cry, show life that you have a Roger Federer to smile.

Thanks Kishore :)

 

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#9 Vibhuism

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:11 PM

So that mean, Andy will still No.2 even if he loses in the Quarterfinals???

 

 

True, if Federer doesn't play, then reaching Quarter-finals will be sufficient for Murray to retain his No. 2 after Monte Carlo.


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#10 Vibhuism

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:15 PM

& this is how, ATP Rankings looked liked on 8th April, 2013 (updated after Djokovic's heroic win at the Davis Cup).

 

 

 

top%2030%208-4-13.png

 

 

 

Also, David Ferrer lost out Davis Cup points that he had earned last year at Quarter-finals in 2012.

 

Also, Berdych lost a few points because of Davis Cup

 

 

& Tsonga gained a few points after his Davis Cup win.


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#11 Vibhuism

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Posted 09 April 2013 - 01:36 AM

Just in case, if Novak Djokovic doesn't play at Monte Carlo Masters, 2013, 600 points will get deducted from his points, but how ever, he can gain some points later by playing in some other ATP-500 tournament.

 

 

 

For details about Novak Djokovic's injury and update if he will be fit to play at Monte Carlo Masters, 2013, click here.


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#12 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 09:35 PM

Now that, David Ferrer has withdrawn from Monte Carlo Rolex Masters, Rafa still has more than a theoretical chance to reach the No. 4 seeding before French Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Rest as I explained, Ferrer won't lose any point because of withdrawal from Monte Carlo Masters.


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#13 Vibhu batra

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Posted 17 April 2013 - 09:49 PM

So, now if Stan Wawrinka beats Andy Murray in the Round-3 (on Thursday), then Roger Federer will get back to No. 2 after Monte Carlo...

 

 

If Wawrinka bears Murray, then Probably, at this point of time, it will be safe to add that Roger Federer will keep this No. 2 ranking for *at least* one week.


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#14 Vibhu batra

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Posted 18 April 2013 - 01:12 PM

Another quick update :: If Grigor Dimitrov beats Florian Mayer in the Round of 16, Dimitrov will assure himself of *at least* 27th Rank.



He will gain 180 points by virtue of reaching QF of Monte Carlo, 2013, these points will get replaced by the 20 points of Tokyo, so, Grigor will be on 1272 points, taking him to *at least* 27th Rank.



This will be the first time that the 21 year old Bulgarian youngster will break out in Top-30.


His previous best ranking was 31st that he achieved in March, 2013.

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#15 Vibhuism

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Posted 18 April 2013 - 06:45 PM

Now that Wawrinka has beaten Murray in R3 of MonteCarlo,Roger Federer will be back to ATP No. 2 after Monte Carlo.

 

 

As Murray's 2013 Tennis calendar doesn't feature Barcelona Open, so, if Murray doesn't accept wild card for Barcelona, Roger Federer is assured to keep No. 2 ranking till 12th May, 2013 (till the end of Mutua Madrid Open).

 


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