I am sure, many of you would be interested in knowing who will be seeded 2nd at French Open, 2013. The main benefit that I see of being seeded #2 at Roland Garros is that you won't get to play Novak Djokovic (who most of the pundits rate as one of the top favorites for French Open, 2013) before the finals.
Though, as we have been discussing that its still not sure, if Rafa Nadal will be able to regain No. 4 ranking before French Open, 2013, so yes, if Rafael Nadal gets the 5th seeding for Roland Garros, 2013 there is a chance that Roger Federer or Andy Murray or for that matter, even Novak Djokovic might face Rafael Nadal in the Quarter-finals of French Open, 2013.
If we consider for a moment that the draw puts Djokovic and Nadal to meet in the Quarter-finals, then getting the No. 2 seeding for French Open, 2013 might just make it easier for Murray or Federer (who ever is seeded No. 2) to reach the finals of French Open, 2013.
File picture of Andy Murray and Roger Federer taken at ATP WTF GALA, 2012
This is how ATP Points of Federer & Murray looked like on 22.04.2013 (after Monte Carlo Masters)
Federer : 8670
Murray : 8660
This year, Andy Murray isn't playing in Barcelona Open, so as Murray had reached the Quarter-finals of Barcelona in 2012, he will lose out 90 points when the next ATP Ranking points are announced on 29th April, 2013.
This is how ATP Points of Federer & Murray will look like on 29.04.2013 (after Barcelona)
After Barcelona, we will be left with two tournaments where in both Federer and Murray will be playing.
1st up is Madrid Masters(Mutua Madrid Open : an ATP 1000 tournament) starting from 6th May, 2013.
Federer is the defending champion of Madrid and will be defending 1000 points, while Murray had withdrawn from Madrid in 2012 due to an injury, so he isn't defending any points there. What ever, he gains there, will be a net gain.
Let us firstly discuss will Roger Federer or Andy Murray will be ranked #2 after Madrid Masters, 2013?
If Federer successfully defends, Madrid, he will be on 8670 points after Madrid, 2013
If Murray loses in the Round of 16 (or call it Round-3), he will be on 8660 points.
Thus, the only condition in which Federer can be No. 2 after Madrid Masters, 2013 :
If Federer wins Madrid Masters, 2013 and Murray loses in the 3rd Round(Round of 16) at Madrid Masters, 2013.
Thus, even if Murray reaches the Quarter-finals of Madrid, 2013, he will be on 8750 points and Federer if he wins Madrid will be on 8660 points.
In a nutshell, Murray will regain the #2 rank after Madrid Masters, 2013 (when the ATP Rankings are announced on 13th May, 2013), if he just reaches the Quarter-finals of Madrid Masters, 2013 (even if Federer successfully defends Madrid title).
Next up is Italian Open (Rome Masters) 2013:
Just a quick reminder, like I explained last year, as Italian Open, 2013 draw is on 11th May, 2013, so, Federer will be seeded #2 there (even if he is #3 after Madrid Masters) as the seedings of Italian Open (Rome Masters) will be as per the ATP Rankings as announced on 6th May, 2013.
Federer lost in the semi-finals of Rome in 2012, so he will be defending 360 points
while Murray lost in the Round of 16, so again Murray will be defending 90 points.
So, now, here are the 3 scenarios to explain you who will be ranked #2 after Rome Masters (Italian Open, 2013) and thus, get a 2nd seeding at French Open, 2013:
i) If Federer wins the Madrid Masters & reaches the finals of Italian Open (Rome Masters),
Murray loses in the Quarters of Madrid Masters as well as Rome Masters:
Then Federer will be on 8910 points & Murray will be on 8750 points.
In this case, Federer will be seeded 2nd at French Open, 2013.
ii) If Federer loses in the final of Madrid & Rome (both finals lost), then Federer will be on 8510 points.
Murray loses in the 3rd Round (Round of 16) of Both Madrid & Rome, then Murray will be on 8660 points.
In that case, Murray will be seeded 2nd at French Open, 2013.
iii) If Federer wins both Madrid & Rome, then Federer will get to 9310 points.
If Murray loses in the semi-finals of both, then Murray will be on 9200 points.
Thus, as you can see from these three scenarios, Murray looks the most likely of these two to get a #2 seeding at French Open, 2013.
To have a realistic chance of getting to #2 seeding at French Open, 2013, Federer will have to successfully defend Madrid and will have to reach finals of Rome Masters, 2013.
PS: The draw of French Open,2013 is scheduled on Friday, 24th May, 2013 & the seedings will be based on the ATP Rankings announced on 20th May, 2013 (after Italian Open, Rome Masters 2013).
Mean while, Roland Garros are considering tinkering with the seedings to avoid a Quarter-final clash between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal or Federer vs Nadal by giving a protected higher seeding to the French Open defending champion Rafael Nadal.
Will you support this move by Roland Garros tournament organizing committee?
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