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Can Rafael Nadal regain No. 4 ATP Ranking from David Ferrer after Italian Open, 2013 and thus get #4 seeding at French Open, 2013?

rafael nadal rafa nadal david ferrer madrid masters italian open atp ranking french open #4 seeding french open seeding french open seedings prediction

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 08:24 PM

Hey all,

 

 

 

After French Open Managing director Gilbert Ysern confirmed that French Open 2013 seedings will be as per ATP Rankings to be announced on 20th May, 2013 (after Italian Open, Roma Masters, 2013).

 

 

So many of you asked me, can Rafa Nadal regain #4 ATP Ranking from David Ferrer after Italian Open, 2013? Let us suppose, if Rafa Nadal can't regain #4 ranking, then at best, he will be seeded 5th at French Open, 2013 and that could mean he could face any of the big 3 namely (Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Andy Murray) in the Quarter-finals of French Open, 2013. To understand, how the Quarter-final and semi-finals draws of a Grand Slam or other ATP tournaments gets done, click here.

 

 

Firstly, a quick reminder of how many ATP Points are at stake at Mutua Madrid Open and Italian Open, 2013 (both ATP 1000 masters tournaments) :

 

 

 

1. The winner gets 1000 points.


2. The losing finalist gets 600 points.


3. The losing Semi-finalist gets 360 points each.


4. The losing Quarter-Finalist gets 180 points each.


5. The loser of Round of 16 gets 90 points each.


6. The loser of Round of 32 takes 45 points each. (but, the top 8 seeds who get a bye in the Round of 64 will get only 10 points in case they lose out in the Round of 32).


7. The winner of Round of 64 (56) gets 10 points each.

 

 

 

 

This is how ATP rankings looked like on 6th May, 2013, just before the start of Mutua Madrid Open, 2013

 

6-may-2013.png

 

 

 

As you can see, Rafael Nadal is on 5985 points and David Ferrer is on 6920 points.

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, can Rafael Nadal regain #4 ATP Ranking from David Ferrer after Italian Open, 2013?

 

 

Rafa Ferru.jpg

 

File picture of Rafael Nadal (on left) and David Ferrer (on right)

 

 

 

Will Rafael Nadal or David Ferrer be seeded 4th at French Open, Roland Garros, 2013?

 

 

 

 

              Scroll down for the detailed discussion.


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 12:59 AM

1st up is Madrid Masters or Mutua Madrid Open, 2013::

 

 

 

 

Rafa Nadal lost in the 3rd Round (Round of 16) at Madrid Open, 2012, so Rafa has to defend only 90 points at Madrid Open 2013.


David Ferrer (Ferru) lost in the Quarter-finals (Round of 8) at Madrid Open, 2012, so Ferru has to defend 180 points at Madrid Open 2013.



 As per the draw of Mutua Madrid 2013 (if you haven't seen, see it here), Rafa and Ferru are scheduled to meet in the Quarter-finals of Madrid Open, 2013.



 So, in the best case scenario, if Rafa Nadal wins Madrid Open 2013 and David Ferrer loses in the Quarter-finals of Madrid Open, 2013.


 Then Rafa Nadal will gain 910 points and will reach 6895 points on 13th May, 2013 (after Madrid Open, 2013) while David Ferrer will remain at 6920 points.

 

 

 

Continued in the next post.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 01:20 AM

Next up is Italian Open (or Rome/Roma Masters 2013)


Rafa Nadal is the defending champion, so has to defend 1000 points at Roma 2013, while Ferrer lost in the semi-finals of Rome 2012, so he has to defend 360 points at Rome 2013.


So, if we presume, Rafa Nadal wins Rome Masters, 2013, he will be on 6895 points on 21st May, 2013 (after Rome Masters, 2013).


While, David Ferrer after losing out in the Quarter-finals will lose 180 , thus, will end up on 6740 points on 21st May, 2013 (after Rome Masters, 2013).


If we assume, David Ferrer manages to reach semi-finals of Rome, 2013, then Ferrer will stay at 6920 points.

 

 

 

Continued in the next post.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 01:22 AM

Thus, in a nutshell we are left with two scenarios for Rafa Nadal to regain #4 ranking from David Ferrer after Rome Masters and thus get the #4 seeding at French Open, 2013.



 (i) Rafael Nadal needs to win both Madrid Open and Italian Open, 2013, thus, he will get to 6895 points after Rome, 2013

  and hope, that David Ferrer loses on or before Quarter-finals of both Madrid and Italian Open, 2013, thus, will bring down Ferrer's ATP Points to 6740 points.


  (ii) This scenario will sound even more complicated. Rafa Nadal reaches finals of Madrid, 2013 and wins Rome Masters, 2013, thus will take Rafa Nadal to 6495 points.


  In that case, David Ferrer will need to lose in the 2nd Round (Round of 32) of both as that will take Ferrer's ATP Points to 6465 points. Even, if Ferrer reaches 3rd round of any of these two, Ferrer will reach 6510 points. Thus, the 1st scenario sounds more realistic :).


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 01:23 AM

  Will Andy Murray or Roger Federer be seeded 2nd for French Open, 2013? Read an in-depth discussion on that right here.


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#6 V.K. Batra

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Posted 11 May 2013 - 04:34 PM

Now, as the Rome Masters draw is out, Ferrer and Rafa Nadal are scheduled to meet again in the Quarter-finals of Rome MASTERS.

 

 

Now, what that means,if :

 

 

(I) Rafa Nadal wins Madrid and

 

 

(ii) Wins Rome, he will be seeded #4 at French Open.

 

 

Though, to win Rome, Rafa will have to beat Djokovic in the semis and Federer in the finals for that :).



#7 Geolith

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Posted 12 May 2013 - 11:26 PM

Hi to everyone, i'm new here!  Nevertheless i'd like to jump directly in 'medias res' expressing my deepest concern about the credibility of the ATP, namely:

 

I seriously dare to question the draw of both the Mutua Madrid Open and the Internazionali Bnl d'Italia.

 

Of course i'm aware of the fact that there was a statistical chance of 1/16 (or 6.25%) for the No.4  and the No.5 seeds to be drawn in the same quarter at both events. But this is also arguably the best scenario for Rafael Nadal to gain back the No.4 ranking in the world and thus being the 4th seed at the French Open.

 

Why? Because this draws ensures that it's ONLY up to him to archieve this goal (namely by winning both title), regardless of David Ferrers performance.

 

While i'd definetly grant Nadal to earn the 4th seed at the FO should he successfully retain his Rome crown, i want to ask your opinions about the matter. Do you really believe it was a fair draw? Was it really just the odds? Or shouldn't we be worried about the fact that there was a 93% chance of Nadal falling in someone elses quarter in at least one of those two tournaments?



#8 Vibhu batra

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 12:47 AM

Hi Geolith,




Firstly a warm welcome.



Secondly, the draws of both Madrid & Rome were 100% fair. The Draw of Rome was shown live on YouTube also.



Thirdly, the statistical chances of Rafa getting Ferru in the QF of both is 12.5% (25% in both should make it 12.5%) :).



I would like to know from you, even if any one thinks that Madrid or Rome draws were rigged, was it done at the behest of French Open or local tournament or ATP or Betting mafia or the players themselves?




I have been covering Grand slam & Masters draws for almost 20 years now & am 100% sure that the draws are 100% genuine & fair.




Also, even if Rafa beats Ferru, Rafa still would have to beat Nole in the semis and then may be, Federer in the finals.


I'm sure, u will agree that these three arguably are the best clay court players among the current generation of players.



So, at least, I will never accept that draws are cooked up, the day if I ever get a hint or confirmation about it, I would stop seeing this sport for the rest of my life :(.

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#9 Geolith

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 02:11 AM

Hi Geolith,




Firstly a warm welcome.



Secondly, the draws of both Madrid & Rome were 100% fair. The Draw of Rome was shown live on YouTube also.



Thirdly, the statistical chances of Rafa getting Ferru in the QF of both is 12.5% (25% in both should make it 12.5%) :).



I would like to know from you, even if any one thinks that Madrid or Rome draws were rigged, was it done at the behest of French Open or local tournament or ATP or Betting mafia or the players themselves?




I have been covering Grand slam & Masters draws for almost 20 years now & am 100% sure that the draws are 100% genuine & fair.




Also, even if Rafa beats Ferru, Rafa still would have to beat Nole in the semis and then may be, Federer in the finals.


I'm sure, u will agree that these three arguably are the best clay court players among the current generation of players.



So, at least, I will never accept that draws are cooked up, the day if I ever get a hint or confirmation about it, I would stop seeing this sport for the rest of my life :(.

 

Thx for the fast reply Vibhu :)

 

First of all, i'd like to state that i'm of course not incriminating anybody, but merely expressing my concerns.

 

Secondly, there is no mean for us here to know if draws are either 100% fair or rigged, as all we have is our opinions. Even videos doesn't prove or discount one of the two possibilities (e.g. even the Italian National Lottery has been manipulated for years in the late 1990s, although streamed live on tv). I watched the youtube video myself and to me it doesn't proof anything.

 

And about the percentages: it's 25% * 25% = 6.25% for the two events since there is a 25% for each tournament for a certain outcome (you multiply the probabilities). 

If Nadal and Ferru would be drawn in the same quarter even at the FO, then we would have a total probability of ~1.56%.

 

But apart from the odds, my point was that this way Ferrer couldn't defend his 4th seed at the FO unless he beat Nadal (which he came close to, but wasn't able to capitalize in Madrid). A different draw could have allowed Ferrer to retain his NO.4 ranking EVEN if Nadal won both tournaments (as you stated in earlier posts already).

 

So what i meant is that those two draws aren't easier for Nadal (because he still would have to beat both Federer and Djokovic if they didn't loose in earlier rounds) but they are/were much more tough for Ferrer (because he would have (had) to beat all the Big 3 en route to the title: one in the QF, one in the SF and one in the Final).

 

And finally, you asked on which behalf the draws could be rigged? :mellow:

Well that i don't know, but although it would be better for the fans having tickets for the QF to see a Djo-Nad or Fed-Nad, it's surely not the best outcome for many, including the tournament organizers, the sponsors, the tv/internet companies who get the broadcasting rights or for the publicity of the event itself. But yes, i made my  considerations particularly with regard to the FO, since this event generates a much bigger amount of money than Rome and Madrid combined.

 

:)  And just like you, i hope i'll never get a confirmation to my worries, cause it would hurt to know this sport also being subjected to deception.



#10 V.K. Batra

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Posted 13 May 2013 - 08:01 PM

I too don't think that draws can be rigged. Let us enjoy this great sport without thinking negative :)



#11 Vibhuism

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 09:31 PM

So,finally, its confirmed that Rafael Nadal has regained No. 4 ranking from David Ferrer after winning Italian Open, 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

For seeing the latest ATP points of The Top-11 to be announced on 20th May, 2013, see this detailed post right here.

 

 

 

If (by chance) Murray plays French Open, the following will be the seedings :

 

 

 

1. Djokovic

 

 

2. Murray

 

 

3. Federer

 

 

4. Nadal

 

 

5. Ferrer

 

 

6. Berdych

 

 

7. Del Potro

 

 

8. Tsonga

 

 

9. Gasquet

 

 

10. Tipsarevic

 

 

11. Wawrinka


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