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ATP Ranking scenarios post US Open 2013

atp ranking scenarios ranking scenarios us open us open 2013

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 12:35 AM

Dear all,

 

 

 

Sorry for being unable to post ranking scenarios & articles for the past 50 days post Wimbledon, was very busy with work, but now I am back & now, stay tuned for comprehensive coverage on ATP & WTA rankings till the season ending championship/ World Tour Finals.

 

 

 

US Open, 2013 promises to be of great interest as the outcome of US Open will play a very important role in deciding who will be #1 for the next 4 weeks & will play a very important role in deciding the year-end #1 as just like in 2012, this year also Basel/Valencia, Bercy Masters & World Tour Finals will be played on three consecutive weeks.

 

 

 

These are the ATP ranking points of the TOP 26 as last announced by ATP on August 26th, 2013 ::

 

 

 

yhhg.jpg

 

 

 

As you know, Andy Murray is the defending US Open champion, so, clearly, even if Murray defends his US Open title, he won't be able to reach #1 post US Open, 2013.

 

 

 

 

But, the real race for #1 ranking post US Open 2013 is between Rafael Nadal & Novak Djokovic

 

 

 

Djokovic-Nadal.jpg

 

If Rafael Nadal wins US Open, 2013 & Djokovic loses before finals of US Open, 2013, Rafa Nadal will snatch #1 ATP Ranking from Djokovic post US Open, 2013

 

 

 

So, from an ATP Ranking point of view, the most relevant questions are :::

 

 

 

(i) Will Novak Djokovic or Rafa Nadal be ranked No. 1 after US Open, 2012?


(ii) How many points will Andy Murray lose if he fails to defend his US Open title?


 

(iii) How much the points difference will be between Novak Djokovic & Rafa Nadal after US Open, 2012?


(iv) As you all know, Roger Federer is ranked #7 currently, can Roger Federer get back to Top-4 if he wins or reaches the semis/finals of US Open, 2013?


(v) What will be the ATP points of Top 4 be in the ATP Ranking points to be declared on 9th September, 2013 (after US Open, 2013)?


(vi) Will Andy Murray still be ranked No. 3 if he fails to defend his US Open title or can David Ferrer or Tomas Berdych snatch #3 ranking from Murray post US Open, 2013?


(vii) How many ranking points are at stake during US Open, 2012?


(viii) How much improvement will we see in the rankings of Juan Martin Del potro, David Ferrer or Tomas Berdych if they manage to win US Open, 2013 or reach final/semi-finals?

 

 

 

(ix) As the bottom half of the US Open 2013 draw is wide open, so there is a great chance for Ernests Gulbis, Jerzy Janowicz, Milos Raonic to reach the Quarters of US Open, in that case, what will the change in the rankings of Gulbis, Janowicz or Raonic?

 

 

(x) Also, as the race to World Tour Finals, London O2 is heating up, so, can Stan Wawrinka or Richard Gasquet cement their place in the Top-8 rankings post US Open, 2013?

 

 

(xi) Unfortunately, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will not be competing at US Open, 2013 due to a knee injury, how many points will Tsonga lose out for skipping US Open, 2013?

 

 

 

So, for getting the answers to all these questions, please read on in the following posts---


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 02:21 AM

Before we go any further, let me firstly remind you how many points are at stake in the grand slams including US Open 2013?


1. The winner gets 2000 points.


2. The losing finalist gets 1200 points.


3. The losing Semi-finalist gets 720 points each.


4. The losing Quarter-Finalist gets 360 points each.


5. The loser of Round of 16 (Round-4) gets 180 points each.


6. The loser of Round of 32 (Round-3) takes 90 points each.




7. The loser of Round of 64 (Round-2) gets 45 points each.



8. The loser of Round of 128 (Round-1) gets 10 points each.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 02:49 AM

How many points the Top 15  have to defend at the US Open, 2013?

 

 

Novak Djokovic had lost in the Finals of US Open, 2012, so he is defending 1200 points at US Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Nadal had missed out US Open, 2012 due to an injury, so Rafa Nadal isn't defending any points at US Open, 2013 and will be gaining points without any deductions.

 

 

Andy Murray is the defending champion as he had won the US Open 2012 , so, Murray will be defending 2000 points at US Open, 2013.

 

 

David Ferrer had lost in the SF at US Open, 2012, so he has to defend 720 points at the US Open, 2013.

 

 

Tomas Berdych had lost in the SF of US Open, 2012, so Berdych has to defend 720 points at the US Open, 2013.

 

 

Del Potro had lost in the QF of US Open, 2012, so Delpo has to defend 360 points at the US Open, 2013.

 

 

Roger Federer had lost in the Quarter-finals at US Open, 2012, so he has to defend 360 points at US Open, 2013.

 

 

Tsonga lost in the 2nd Round of US Open, 2012, so Tsonga by virtue of missing out US Open, 2013 will lose 45 points.

 

 

Richard Gasquet lost in the 4th Round of US Open, 2012, so Gasquet is defending only 180 points at the US Open, 2013.

 

 

Stan Wawrinka lost in the in the 4th Round of US Open, 2012, so Wawrinka has to defend 180 points at the US Open, 2013.

 

 

Milos Raonic had also lost in the in the 4th Round of US Open, 2012, so Raonic also has to defend 180 points at the US Open, 2013.

 

Kei Nishikori had lost in the 3rd Round of US Open, 2013, so Nishikori will lose out 80 points (90-10) by virtue of losing out in the 1st round of US Open, 2013.

 

 

Tommy Haas had lost in the 1st round of US Open, 2013, so, he has to defend only 10 points & a good showing here might just take him close to 12th or 11th rank & a step closer to qualifying for World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

 

Jerzy Janowicz had also lost in the 1st round of US Open, 2013, so, he has to defend only 10 points & a good showing here might also take him close to 12th or 11th rank & a step closer to qualifying for World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

 

 

Ernests Gulbis has to defend 45 points at US Open, 2013 while Grigor Dimitrov has to defend only 10 points at US Open, 2013 while Benoit Paire has to defend 45 points at US Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Scroll down for ranking scenarios post US Open, 2013.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 04:13 AM

Here is a quick points chart (showing per round calculation of Top-10 players post US Open, 2013)

 

 

 

Per Round calculation sheet of Top 8 (showing the ranking points post every round at US Open, 2013)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attached File  us open ranking scenarios by Vibhu batra.pdf   94.12KB   810 downloads

 

 

 

 

Scroll down for summary & the possible ranking changes post US Open, 2013.


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 04:37 AM

Summary::

 

 

 

(i) From the above calculation sheet, it is clear that if Rafael Nadal wins US Open, 2013 & Djokovic loses before the finals of US Open, then Rafael Nadal will be #1 on 9th September, 2013 post US Open, 2013.

 

 

In that case, Novak Djokovic would get struck at 98 weeks as ATP #1. If how ever, Djokovic reaches the finals or if Rafa Nadal loses on or before the finals of US Open, 2013, Djokovic's 100 weeks at ATP #1 will get ensured in the week starting on 16th September, 2013.

 

 

 

(ii) Rafa Nadal's #2 ranking is 100% safe in all scenarios.

 

 

 

(iii) Andy Murray is the defending champion and can't add any points post US Open, 2013, so, there are no chances of him climbing higher in the rankings than #3.

 

 

 

(iv)  David Ferrer #4 ranking post US Open, 2013 is 100% safe. Ferru can how ever get to #3 ranking if Murray loses early & Ferrer can reach QF or 1 round more than Murray post QF.

 

 

 

Scroll down for more ranking scenarios....


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#6 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 04:53 AM

The next 3 ranks will face stiff competition (as explained in the sheet above):

 

 

 

 

One thing that is sure:

 

 

Neither Roger Federer, nor Berdych, Del Potro can get in to Top-4 ranking (post US Open, 2013) even if they win US Open, 2013 title.

 

 

 

 

Roger Federer can at best get to #5 if he reaches one round higher than Berdych, Del potro.

 

 

 

If (by chance) Federer, Berdych, Del Potro end up losing in the Quarter-Finals of US Open, then Juan Martin Del Potro will rise to #5, Berdych will be #6 & Federer will stay at #7 rank post US Open, 2013.


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#7 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 05:11 AM

Ranking changes from #8 onwards :

 

 

 

Jo Wilfried Tsonga's #8 ranking looks to be safe post US Open, 2013. The only way, Richard Gasquet or Stanislas Wawrinka can get to #8 post US Open, 2013 is if Gasquet or Wawrinka reach finals of US Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Stan Wawrinka can get to #9 ranking post US Open, 2013 if he gets to play one round more than Richard Gasquet.

 

 

 

Milos Raonic can reach #9 ranking if he reaches one round higher than Gasquet & Wawrinka post 4th Round.

 

 

Thus, if Wawrinka & Gasquet lose out in the 4th Round of US Open, 2013 & Raonic reaches QF of US Open, 2013, then Raonic will be #9, Gasquet will be #10 & Wawrinka will be #11 post US Open, 2013.

 

 

 

 

Also, Tommy Haas & Jerzy Janowicz can climb at least 1 position in their ATP Ranking if they reach 4th Round or beyond as Kei Nishikori will lose out 80 points by virtue of losing out in the 1st Round of US Open, 2013.

 

 

 

PS: Will keep updating other ranking scenarios during US Open in the following posts, feel free to ask any questions that you might have.

 

 

 

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#8 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 05:16 AM

2013 has not been a good year for Roger. So many losses and consequently this unprecedented fall in the rankings.

But as fans we surely must look to the bright side of all this. Judging by the match against Rafa Nadal in Cincinnati it would be foolish to write Roger off. He still has the ability for some breathtaking shots and can dig himself out of a hole as we saw in the match the day before against Tommy Haas. It was bad luck that his efforts did not pay off against Nadal, but he is a class act himself and that match will surely go down as one to remember. To my mind Roger still has it in him to do great things, he has to believe that himself. From what he says he certainly trains and prepares enough physically for this to be possible so long as his body, particularly his back, holds out.

Provided that Roger does not go our before the quarter finals in New York, he will not lose ranking points. Wins beyond the quarter finals will be a good boost for him after the year he has had. And personally I feel Rafael Nadal will be the man to beat in New York this year.

2012 was a wonderful year for Roger. He achieved far more than many would have credited him with and consequently he built up the ranking points which had to be defended. 2013 has chiselled away at these relentlessly. Lets hope the pendulum will swing the other way in 2014 ...


Vibhu I have one question regarding the rankings table in your first post.

yhhg.jpg

What do the figures in the far right hand column mean?


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#9 Guest_UKSKBK_*

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 06:14 AM

Far right column: how many tournaments each player played in 2013.
If Roger can beat Nadal in QF I believe he can win the title ^^

#10 Guest_tenis fan_*

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 06:35 AM

@Wendy : Its actually the number of tournaments played in the last 52 weeks.

#11 ashRAFAN

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 12:27 PM

Tournaments

2013 has not been a good year for Roger. So many losses and consequently this unprecedented fall in the rankings.
But as fans we surely must look to the bright side of all this. Judging by the match against Rafa Nadal in Cincinnati it would be foolish to write Roger off. He still has the ability for some breathtaking shots and can dig himself out of a hole as we saw in the match the day before against Tommy Haas. It was bad luck that his efforts did not pay off against Nadal, but he is a class act himself and that match will surely go down as one to remember. To my mind Roger still has it in him to do great things, he has to believe that himself. From what he says he certainly trains and prepares enough physically for this to be possible so long as his body, particularly his back, holds out.
Provided that Roger does not go our before the quarter finals in New York, he will not lose ranking points. Wins beyond the quarter finals will be a good boost for him after the year he has had. And personally I feel Rafael Nadal will be the man to beat in New York this year.
2012 was a wonderful year for Roger. He achieved far more than many would have credited him with and consequently he built up the ranking points which had to be defended. 2013 has chiselled away at these relentlessly. Lets hope the pendulum will swing the other way in 2014 ...
Vibhu I have one question regarding the rankings table in your first post.yhhg.jpg
What do the figures in the far right hand column mean?

tournaments played

#12 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 12:46 PM

Thanks guys

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#13 crazyfedfan

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 01:40 PM

Thanks for this post Vibhu! I missed these rankings analyses! I actually have a slightly different question. How many more points does Roger need to ensure a place at London at the WTF? It would be quite sad if he can't make it this year :( and I know it's always one of his goals, to make it into the top 8.



#14 Rita

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 02:37 PM

Yes, thanks Vibhu for working out all these ranking stats.  Very interesting.  The whole thing about having to defend points is a bit daft to my mind. I wonder who thought that up.  It seems to me it takes a lot of effort to win a championship twice running and yet you get no reward for it really, other than not losing points.  



#15 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 06:33 PM

It has taken me a while to understand the all implications of rankings, and that understanding is largely thanks to Vibhu's rankings posts .... which I have to admit at first I found rather mind blowing, as I do not have a head for numbers.

I can understand why you have said that Rita, but another way of looking at it is that by winning the tournament a second year in succession, although a player earns no ranking points, at least they stop others from getting the maximum, and to follow on from Crazyfedfan's question, a tournament win would surely add points of a different sort towards the World Tour Finals? ....... or am I totally confused? I did warn you I have no head for numbers ;)

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#16 Vibhu batra

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 08:58 PM

Thanks for this post Vibhu! I missed these rankings analyses! I actually have a slightly different question. How many more points does Roger need to ensure a place at London at the WTF? It would be quite sad if he can't make it this year :( and I know it's always one of his goals, to make it into the top 8.

 

 

Hello Ishita, well, with Tsonga unfortunately missing out, Roger will surely qualify if he reaches QF at US Open , QF of Shanghai & Basel SF. Will do an indepth analysis on that, as I need to cover points of every one from Gasquet to Haas to Janowicz & even Fognini.

 

 

 

Yes, thanks Vibhu for working out all these ranking stats.  Very interesting.  The whole thing about having to defend points is a bit daft to my mind. I wonder who thought that up.  It seems to me it takes a lot of effort to win a championship twice running and yet you get no reward for it really, other than not losing points.  

 

 

Thanks Rita, last month, I was getting interviewed by an American Magazine & the first question that I was asked, how do you justify the concept of defending points as is the case with our ATP & WTA Rankings.

 

 

Well, why, I feel the concept of defending points is the best way to calculate rankings -----

 

 

(i) It shows how consistent a player is & is the best way to judge a players' consistency,

 

 

(ii) Gives opportunity to players who missed out last year. That's the primary reason- why we are seeing Rafa Nadal so close to #1 ranking inspite of being out from game for full 7 months.

 

 

 (iii) Is much better than the concept of just keep adding points say over a 2 years period. You know, if we had a 2 year ranking, then Djokovic wouldn't have been No. 1 in 2011 or for that matter, Federer wouldn't have been No. 1 in 2012. Of course, they both deserved to be No. 1 in 2011 & 2012 respectively because they were the best players on the tour in that year & if ranking was based on a 100 weeks ranking system, then I don't think, that would have done justice to the game.

 

 

 

It has taken me a while to understand the all implications of rankings, and that understanding is largely thanks to Vibhu's rankings posts .... which I have to admit at first I found rather mind blowing, as I do not have a head for numbers.

I can understand why you have said that Rita, but another way of looking at it is that by winning the tournament a second year in succession, although a player earns no ranking points, at least they stop others from getting the maximum, and to follow on from Crazyfedfan's question, a tournament win would surely add points of a different sort towards the World Tour Finals? ....... or am I totally confused? I did warn you I have no head for numbers ;)

 

 

Well, see ATP has 2 rankings. One is this 52 weeks rankings which I call the common fan's ranking, the other is Year to date rankings (which starts with the first tournament of the year) which I call as the specialist fan's rankings.

 

 

Both the rankings points tend to get equal just after the end of the last tournament which happens to be Bercy Masters (Paris Masters in Bercy). I have explained it in great details right here.


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#17 Rita

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Posted 27 August 2013 - 10:21 PM

Thanks for all these explanations.  I realise that what I posted before was a little simplistic.  I'll have to start studying these figures more seriously (I'm also not good at maths Wendy) but if someone fails to defend their title then they still don't have to lose their position if they do well all around throughout the year, so it is in fact a good reflection of overall performance - sadly for Roger this year!

 

And talking of Roger, thank goodness he's playing at a more reasonable time. I was exhausted today from staying up for nothing!  Fingers crossed the rain stays away. 



#18 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 02:08 PM

Thank you for that explanation Vibhu. I will have to study the linked article again as it rather made my poor old brain spin first read through :rolleyes:

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#19 fedfan

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Posted 30 August 2013 - 07:12 PM

It will be very difficult for Murray to defend his US Open title. Rafa is on top form, with Djoko and Fed surely wanting to take the title.

 

There are a few possible outcomes, I just downloaded the new stevegtennis android app, where you can guess the outcome of each round and then earn points if you guessed it right. Sooo much fun:)

 

But lets hope Roger will bounce back big time....



#20 Rita

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 02:44 PM

So I read that with Del Potro out Roger will go up to 6 in the rankings.  That's good news.  I felt sorry for Del Potro last night, but it was good to see Hewitt's success and his evident joy at that success.   Encouraging for Roger. 





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