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Can Roger Federer qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013?

roger federer wtf 2013 O2 London 2013 london 2013 world tour finals final showdown atp wtf final 8 wtf

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 03:52 AM

Before I begin to write on a question that has become the most asked question of my life, I need to tell you all a small story- Where ever I go, be it a Board meeting or a conference or even for work-out in Gym or my Tennis court, people after saying Hi, immediately start asking me- Can Roger Federer qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013?

 

 

When ever I tweet some thing even unrelated to Tennis, my twitter replies get bombarded with one question- Can RF qualify for WTF, 2013? Not to mention, I daily tend to receive 7 to 8 emails from people all across the globe asking the same question.

 

 

To put things in perspective, there hasn't been a single World Tour Finals (season ending championship or year ending championship or as it was earlier called, Tennis Masters Cup) for the last 11 years in which Roger Federer hasn't played. After narrowly missing the season ending Tennis masters cup in 2001, Roger Federer has played in every season ending championship since 2002.

 

 

In those 11 World Tour Finals, Roger Federer has won the title 6 times (2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010 & 2011), lost in the finals twice (2005 & 2012), lost in the semi-finals twice (2002 & 2009) & only once Federer lost in the round robin stage (in 2008).

 

 

 

Now the big question in every Tennis fan's mind is- Can Roger Federer qualify for Barclays World Tour Finals 2013 or not?

 

 

1378394_563015880438918_1685202901_n.png

 This is how Roger Federer's outfit at World Tour Finals 2013 will look like. For more pics of the outfit, click here.

 

 

 

 

People often ask me, which ATP rankings are more reliable? I always say, only rely & look at the 52 weeks normal rankings. The main reason for that is Normal rankings are more precise & you can easily deduct the points that are uncountable to get to the real Year to date Rankings.

 

 

While, the Year to date or as the ATP calls them, Race to London rankings includes all points earned during the year & even the uncountable tournaments are added some times (though, the adjustment is made after Bercy to make sure- Race to London & Normal Ranking get equal before the start of World Tour Finals).

 

 

Now, as you all know, till date (12th October, 2013), Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray (who has withdrawn from World Tour Finals 2013 because of back surgery) & David Ferrer have officially qualified for WTF, 2013.

 

 

 

This is how the live points of the next 7 opponents looks like (updated after the semi-Finals of Shanghai Masters 2013 got over)  ----

 

 

 

Juan Martin Del Potro- 4375 points (90 points of Monte Carlo, 2013 will become countable after Vienna's 250 points get dropped down & as Delpo is scheduled to play at Basel, 2013, so, I am not including 45 points, which, he will any how get, even after winning his 2nd round match at Swiss Indoors,2013).

 

 

 

 

Breaking News: As Juan Martin Del potro has got to 4375 points after reaching the finals of Shanghai Masters, 2013 by beating Rafa Nadal, Delpotro has qualified for World Tour Finals, 2013. Gasquet or Tsonga or Raonic won't be able to surpass him in the race as further his 90 points from Monte Carlo 2013 will get added after Vienna points from 2012 get dropped off.

 

 

 

Tomas Berdych-  3800 points

 

 

 

Stan Wawrinka- 3150 points

 

 

Roger Federer- 3145 points (updated after 3rd round loss vs Gael Monfils).

 

 

Richard Gasquet - 2870 points (I've not included 90 points of Bangkok 2013 because Gasquet is scheduled to play at Moscow 2013).

 

 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- 3010 points (including 45 points of Tokyo 2013 points that will become countable when Stockholm's 150 points get dropped down).

 

 

Milos Raonic- 2770 points (Raonic has 45 points from Washington, 2013, which can be replaced with an impressive showing at Basel, 2013).

 

 

 

Next up are Tommy Haas with 2265 points, Nicolas Almargo with 2115 points, John Isner with 2060 points and as you can see, none of these three can reach up to top-8 guys even if they win all three tournaments that are left.

 

 

 

So, the next 4 left over positions in almost every probability will be taken up by these above mentioned 6 players.

 

 

Scroll down for more detailed analysis as I cover every player's remaining tournaments and the possible cut-off points discussing if  Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic can qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013?


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:42 AM

(i) Juan Martin Del Potro ---   4375 points (updated after semi-final win over Rafa Nadal at Shanghai Masters, 2013)

 

 

 

Juan+Martin+Del+Potro+injury+Davis+Cup.j

 

 

 

Breaking News: As Juan Martin Del potro has got to 4375 points after reaching the finals of Shanghai Masters, 2013 by beating Rafa Nadal, Delpotro has qualified for World Tour Finals, 2013. Gasquet or Tsonga or Raonic won't be able to surpass him in the race as further his 90 points from Monte Carlo 2013 will get added after Vienna points from 2012 get dropped off.

 

 

Tournaments left- Shanghai 2013 final, Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013 (he isn't playing at Vienna or Moscow or Stockholm & seems, very unlikely that he will take a wildcard)

 

 

 Maximum points left to gain-  1500 points

 

 

In case of an early exit at Basel, 2013, Delpo has a back up of 45 points. So, in a nutshell, Delpo is clearly at 4500 points currently.

 

 

Verdict:  Juan Martin Del Potro is 100% through to the World Tour finals, 2013. ATP's official announcement will come very soon.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 07:03 AM

(ii) Tomas Berdych- 3800 points (90 points of Monte Carlo, 2013 are included in this, will get added as he isn't playing Stockholm Open, 2013).

 

 

b_30AUG13_8291_berdych_pete.jpg

 

 

Tournaments left- Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013 (he isn't playing at Vienna or Moscow or Stockholm & seems, very unlikely that he will take a wildcard)

 

 

Maximum points left to gain-  1500 points

 

 

So, if Berdych reaches QF of Basel & 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3890 points.

 

 

If Berdych reaches SF of Basel & 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3980 points.

 

 

If Berdych reaches SF of Basel & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 4060 points.

 

 

 

 

My prediction: Tomas Berdych is also almost sure to qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013. As, you will notice from other players points, even his current points are almost sufficient to guarantee a spot in WTF.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 07:15 AM

iii) Stan Wawrinka- 3150 points (updated after QF's loss to Rafael Nadal at Shanghai Masters)

 

 

 

Stanislas+Wawrinka+2013+Australian+Open+

 

 

 

Tournaments left- Moscow 2013, Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013

 

 

Maximum points- 1750 points (post Shanghai 2013)

 

 

 

Breaking News: Stan Wawrinka has withdrawn from Kremlin Cup, Moscow. Now, he is scheduled to play only at Basel, 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

Even, if Wawrinka has an early loss at Basel 2013 (points from Basel will be counted only if he goes past the QF stage at Basel as he already has best 6 tournaments results counted in his rankings) & reaches QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3330 points

 

 

 

 

If Wawrinka reaches SF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3410 points

 

 

 

If Wawrinka reaches SF of Basel 2013 & SF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3590 points

 

 

 

My prediction: Outside the Top-4, Stan Wawrinka has been the most consistent player & has the most number of Top-10 wins after Rafa Nadal & Novak Djokovic. Though, things have got a bit dicey after his withdrawal from Moscow, 2013, but as you will notice after seeing points of Richard Gasquet & Milos Raonic.

 

 

Stanislas Wawrinka has a great chance & as per my calculations will qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013, even if he reaches Quarter-finals of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will still qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013 provided Gasquet & Raonic don't win more than 1 tournament from now on.

 

 

 

After I had posted the English translation of Stan Wawrinka's interview by Rene Stauffer, I had got a dream that Stan Wawrinka has qualified for World Tour Finals, 2013 & now, that dream is almost sure to become a reality provided Stan Wawrinka can have 3 decent matches at Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

70459-jsgoQ_X7qBXfnorCigtsTg.jpg

 

A file Picture of Stan Wawrinka's arm tattoo which he had got after that epic 5 setter loss to Novak Djokovic at Australian Open, 2013


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 07:27 AM

iv) Richard Gasquet - 2870 points

 

Richard+Gasquet+ATP+Masters+Series+Monte

 

 

Tournaments left- Moscow 2013, Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013

 

 

As you all know, Top 30 committed players can add the best 6 results from all ATP-500 (including Monte Carlo) , ATP-250, Davis Cup.

 

 

Gasquet's point from Moscow will get replaced with his least points from Halle (90 points). So, Gasquet will add up points only if he reaches finals of Moscow.

 

 

 

So, If Gasquet reaches finals of Moscow 2013, QF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3200 points

 

 

If Gasquet reaches finals of Moscow 2013, SF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3290 points

 

 

 

If Gasquet wins Moscow 2013, QF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3300 points

 

 

 

If Gasquet wins Moscow 2013, SF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3390 points

 

 

 

Prediction: Richard Gasquet after an early exit at Shanghai Masters has his job cut out. His best chance will be if he can reach 3390 points as explained above, even, then Gasquet's fortune of participating in World Tour Finals, 2013 will be dependent on the results of Wawrinka, Tsonga & to an extent, Raonic.


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#6 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 07:55 AM

v) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- 3010 points (updated after Tsonga's victory in the QF of Shanghai Masters, 2013)

 

 

 

Tsonga2-570x457.jpg

 

Tournaments left- Shanghai 2013 SF, Vienna 2013, Valencia 2013 (possible Wild Card) & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

If Tsonga reaches finals of Vienna 2013, reaches SF of Valencia (WC) & 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to only 3145 points.

 

 

If Tsonga reaches finals of Vienna 2013, doesn't take the Wild Card of Valencia & reaches, 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3115 points.

 

 

So, as you can see Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will get to add points of Valencia (if he gets points over 150 points- beyond QF stage) even if he takes wildcard for Valencia Open.

 

 

 

 

If Tsonga reaches finals of Vienna 2013, reaches SF of Valencia (WC) & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3235 points.

 

 

 

If Tsonga wins Vienna 2013 title, reaches SF of Valencia (WC) & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3335 points.

 

 

If Tsonga wins Vienna 2013 title, reaches finals of Valencia (WC) & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3455 points.

 

 

 

Prediction: As, we discussed above, to be on the safer side, you need to have more than 3300 points, thus, ideally, at this point of time, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga should qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013 if he can get to 3335 points as explained above, but, if Gasquet has a couple of good tournaments, then, even Tsonga might just miss out.

 

 


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#7 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:06 AM

vi) Milos Raonic- 2770 points

 

 

 

raonic1.jpg

 

 

Tournaments left- Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

Breaking news: Milos Raonic has taken wildcard for Stockholm (an ATP-250 Tournament).

 

 

 

If Raonic wins Stockholm title & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3155 points. (Basel, 2013 points will only be added post Semi-finals as he already has 6 best tournaments in his overall points & least out of those after Washington's 45 is 180 points).

 

 

 

If Raonic wins Stockholm title, reaches finals of Basel 2013 & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3275 points.

 

 

 

If Raonic wins Stockholm title, wins Basel 2013 & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3475 points.

 

 

 

Prediction: So, clearly, Milos Raonic needs to win 2 tournaments to book his place in the World Tour Finals, 2013. As, we discussed above for Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga 3300+ points will be needed for qualification in the World Tour Finals, 2013 because of the current ranking scenarios.


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#8 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:23 AM

Now, is the turn of Roger Federer:   3145 points (updated after his 3rd round loss vs Gael Monfils).

 

 

 

 

940929_571814722848987_154312477_n.jpg

 

 

 

Tournaments left:  Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

If Federer reaches QF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3415 points.

 

 

If Federer reaches QF of Basel 2013, R3 (Round of 16) @ Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3325 points.

 

 

 

 

Remarks & Prediction:

 

 

(i) If Roger Federer takes the wildcard for Vienna & reaches the finals at Vienna, he will add 150 points or if he reaches just the Semis of Vienna, he will add 90 more points to his above mentioned points tally.

 

 

(ii) Even, if Roger Federer doesn't take the wildcard for Vienna, by virtue of reaching Quarter-finals of both Basel & Bercy, he is assured of reaching World Tour Finals provided Milos Raonic doesn't win 2 titles or Tsonga/Gasquet doesn't reach the combination of (finals of Valencia Open/Basel & semis @ Bercy Masters).


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#9 Vibhuism

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:30 AM

The discussion on the remaining 4 slots available for World Tour Finals has been started in a new topic to make it simpler for every one to understand & comment. Here is the link of that ----------

 

 

 

 

http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/1641-predicting-the-last-four-qualifiers-for-world-tour-finals-2013/

 

 

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************

 

 

 

 

My quick prediction:

 

 

As you can see from the above discussion:  

 

 

 

Tomas Berdych are almost sure to book their spots in the World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

 

Next big favorite is Roger Federer provided he reaches the QF of both Basel & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

After that Stan Wawrinka.

 

 

There is a very close fight between Tsonga & Gasquet. Will depend a lot how they play at Basel/Valencia & Bercy

 

 

 Only a miracle will take Milos Raonic to World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

 

 

 Feel free to ask any questions here or on my twitter, Gplus or FB accounts, the links are mentioned in my signature below.

 

 

 

 

 Also, here's another article by me - Who will end 2013 year-end as #1? Will it be Rafa Nadal or Novak Djokovic?

 

 

 

rafole.jpg

 

 

  Read the article right here.


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#10 Tennis Lover

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:33 AM

He is physically there but it's small things which bother him. His timing is off, his concentration is not lasting enough, and the resulting frustration makes him tense. I think rather than putting a lot of pressure of having to make it to London on himself, Roger should just go out and try to find his limit in the remaining season. Forget about London. It doesn't matter if he loses again in Basel and Paris. He should just blast the balls and try to find his range and limit. One or two more losses won't hurt him too much and they won't make much differences either. He is now a challenger and he shouldn't be afraid of losing. It would be better for him to go down with all guns blazing rather than think too much and play timid games. No fear, no fear of losing is what he needs at this point.



#11 Guest_shab_*

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:38 PM

I hope Federer could read abov topic.

#12 Guest_@Niraperky9_*

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:45 PM

Coul you please explain Robin stage please

#13 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 01:53 PM

How I understand it the Round Robin stage is like this. There are 8 players in the World Tour Finals. These are divided into two groups of 4 depending on their rankings. Now in these two groups of 4 each player will play all of the other members of that group. The highest 2 players from each group then go through to the semi finals.

Now I am not sure whether the winners of each group play eachother in the semis in one match, and the players who came second play in the other match .... I am sure Vibhu will know the answer to that one ;-)

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#14 Guest_Sudhanshu Khajuria_*

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 04:25 PM

The winner of each group plays the runner up of the other group..

#15 Guest_sagarm17_*

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:47 PM

Yeah
It requires full of concentration and well practice to qualify for atp world tour final 2013
We all Federista belive in you Rodge
We know u can do it
Come on Rodge
Just BRING IT ON

#16 Tennis Lover

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 07:47 PM

Watching Nadal v Wawrinka and this thought came to mind. Seeing Wawrinka playing so well(and other as well), what's the point of Federer qualifying for WTF if he's less than 100% and keeps playing sub-par matches? Is it really fair? I wouldn't be too sad if the current version of Federer misses out on WTF. I hope Roger finds his form soon and then qualifies.



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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:51 PM

^^^ To say that rather hope Roger to miss WTF so as to avoid playing sub par matches is denying his chance of showing he can make difference, as he always did/does.  Plus, perhaps you forget that Roger plays exceptional in indoor courts.  



#18 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 09:04 PM

If Roger earns his place he should play. No question. Yes Stan Wawrinka has played some incredible tight matches against the top players, and the first set against Nadal at Shanghai today had the promise of another epic battle, but sadly he then crumbled to lose the second set 6-1 handing the match to Nadal on a plate. So you see a dramatic drop in the level of play in a match can happen, whoever you are ;)

I feel that it is noticed more in Roger's case because he has been a top player for so long, that people expect the best no matter what.

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#19 Guest_A.I_*

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Posted 12 October 2013 - 01:10 AM

Federer will be the last player to Qualify for WTF :) my guess



#20 Guest_Saraunia_*

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Posted 12 October 2013 - 07:17 AM

Roger is getting his confidence back . . . played much better against Monfils . . . also after losing to Robredo he was really unsettled and "twitchy" during his after match news conference . . . after losing to Monfils he was calm, cool, collective and reflective during his interview. 

 

Roger will make at least the quarters in Basel if he gets just half a decent draw . . . I predict he will go further there . . . and a quarters in Paris is also achievable for Rog . . . however the draw may be a bit tricky since he's now ranked no. 7 . . .  let's hope for a decent draw and not real bad surprises in the early rounds

 

I've watch Roger play Basel live in 2009, 2010, 2012 and will do so again this year.  He always plays well at the Swiss Indoors.

 

My prediction is that he will make the World Tour finals. 

 

Good luck Champ and lets all send out positive energy to boost our Rog to a great season ending run.

 

Saraunia





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