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Predicting the last four qualifiers for World Tour Finals, 2013

world tour finals 2013 wtf 2013 roger federer tomas berdych stan wawrinka richard gasquet tsonga raonic london O2 2013 O2 2013 final showdown

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:33 AM

This is the part-II of the Topic which I started last week predicting who amongst Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Tsonga or Raonic can qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013?

 

 

post-2-0-39814700-1351948935_thumb.jpg

 

File picture of O2 getting ready for the the season ending Barclay's ATP World Tour Finals

 

 

 

Now, only 4 spots are left as Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer & Juan Martin Del Potro have already qualified for World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

 

 

This is how the live points of the next 6 opponents looks like (updated after presuming that Richard Gasquet will win Kremlin Cup, Moscow final match on 20th October, 2013).

 

 

 

 

i) Tomas Berdych -- 3800 points (after adding the 90 points from Monte Carlo that will become countable as last year's Stockholm Open points will dop out).

 

 

 

ii) Stanislas Wawrinka ---- 3150 points

 

 

iii) Roger Federer ---- 3145 points

 

 

 iv) Richard Gasquet-- 3120 points (updated presuming Gasquet will win Moscow 2013 title)

 

 

  v) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ---- 3055 points (updated after his SF loss at Vienna to Hasse)

 

 

   vi) MilosRaonic ---- 2770 points

 

 

 

Though, technically, Tommy Haas isn't out of World Tour Finals, 2013 qualification, but even if we wins Vienna 2013 title, he will be on 2425 points, but, to qualify for WTF, Haas will need to reach finals of both Valencia Open & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

So, the next 4 left over positions in almost every probability will be taken up by these above mentioned 6 players.

 

 

Scroll down for more detailed analysis as I cover every player's remaining tournaments and the possible cut-off points discussing if  Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic or Tommy Haas can qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013?


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:43 AM

(ii) Tomas Berdych- 3800 points (90 points of Monte Carlo, 2013 are included in this, will get added as he isn't playing Stockholm Open, 2013).

 

 

b_30AUG13_8291_berdych_pete.jpg

 

 

Tournaments left- Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013

 

 

 

Berdych points from Basel 2013 will only get counted if he gets more than 90 points  or goes above the Quarter-final stage of Basel, 2013 as only best of 6 non masters tournaments can be added.

 

 

 

So, if Berdych reaches QF of Basel & 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3890 points.

 

 

If Berdych reaches SF of Basel & 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3980 points.

 

 

If Berdych reaches SF of Basel & QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 4060 points.

 

 

 

Even if Berdych has an early loss at Basel & reaches 3rd  Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3890 points.

 

 

 

Verdict: Thus, Berdych is almost sure to qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013 & his qualification will be confirmed by ATP by the end of Swiss Indoors, Basel 2013.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 03:51 AM

ii) Stan Wawrinka- 3150 points

 

 

 

Stanislas+Wawrinka+2013+Australian+Open+

 

 

 

Tournaments left- Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013

 

 

 

Even, if Wawrinka has an early loss at Basel 2013 (points from Basel will be counted only if he goes past the QF stage at Basel as he already has best 6 tournaments results counted in his rankings, with the least being 90 points from Casablanca).

 

 

-----  If Wawrinka after losing early at Basel, reaches QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3330 points

 

 

------  If Wawrinka reaches SF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3410 points

 

 

 

-----  If Wawrinka reaches SF of Basel 2013 & SF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3590 points

 

 

 

Verdict: As Wawrinka has an almost 95 points lead over Tsonga & 380 points lead over Raonic, Wawrinka is almost sure to qualify for WTF, 2013 provided he has a reasonable outing at Bercy Masters, 2013 & reaches the same round level till Tsonga at Bercy Masters, 2013.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:02 AM

v) Richard Gasquet ----- 3120 points (updated after presuming Gasquet will win Moscow 2013 title)

 

 

 

Richard+Gasquet+ATP+Masters+Series+Monte

 

 

Just like Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet too in case of an early loss at Basel 2013 won't lose much as Gasquet's points from Basel will be counted only if he goes past the QF stage at Basel as he already has best 6 non tournaments results counted in his rankings, with the least being 90 points from Halle, 2013.

 

 

 

--- So, if Gasquet reaches QF of Bercy Masters, he will get to 3290 points

 

 

 & if Gasquet reaches 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, he will get to 3200 points.

 

 

I've not added the points of Basel, 2013, as those will get added counted if he goes beyond Quarter-finals of Swiss Indoors, Basel 2013.

 

 

Verdict: So, as you can see, even Gasquet's real competition at this point of time remains from Jo Willy Tsonga & he will need a decent outing at Bercy Masters, 2013 to ensure his place at World Tour Finals, 2013.


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:25 AM

vi) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- 3055 points (updated after Tsonga's loss in Vienna vs Hasse)

 

 

 

Tsonga2-570x457.jpg

 

Tournaments left- only Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

After his SF loss at Vienna & Tsonga not playing at Valencia Open or Swiss Indoors, Basel, 2013, will need a miraculous performance at Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

Tsonga trails by 95 points from Wawrinka & about 65 points from Gasquet & both Wawrinka & Gasquet can add points from Basel if they go beyond Quarter-finals at Basel, 2013.

 

 

Here are the two scenarios where in Tsonga can qualify for WTF, 2013 ----

 

 

(i) If Tsonga reaches the Round-3 of Bercy Masters, 2013 & if Gasquet loses on or before QF of Basel, 2013 & 1st Round of Bercy Masters, 2013) as Tsonga will be on 3135 points & Gasquet will be on 3130 points.

 

 

 

or (ii) if Tsonga reaches QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3235 points & if Wawrinka or Gasquet lose before the 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013 (after taking in to the fact that Wawrinka & Gasquet will not go beyond QF stage at Basel, 2013).

 

 

 

So, one thing that is almost sure, that Tsonga's only & only chance to qualify will be if he reaches at least the Round-3 of Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

If Tsonga loses before the 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will be out from the WTF race.


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#6 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:30 AM

vi) Milos Raonic- 2770 points

 

 

 

raonic1.jpg

 

 

Tournaments left- only Bercy Masters, 2013 as he has withdrawn from Basel, 2013

 

 

 

If Raonic reaches the SF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to only 3130 points which you can see from above will not be sufficient to challenge Gasquet of Wawrinka.

 

 

So, Raonic's last chance to qualify for World Tour Finals is to reach finals of Bercy Masters, 2013, if Raonic reaches the finals, he will get to 3370 points & that will be sufficient to challenge Tsonga, Gasquet & Wawrinka.


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#7 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:39 AM

Now, is the turn of Roger Federer:   3145 points

 

 

 

 

940929_571814722848987_154312477_n.jpg

 

 

 

Tournaments left:  Basel 2013 & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

If Federer reaches QF of Basel 2013, QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3415 points.

 

 

If Federer reaches QF of Basel 2013, R3 (Round of 16) @ Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3325 points.

 

 

 

Remarks & Prediction:

 

 

 

If Federer reaches the Quarter-finals of both Basel & Bercy, he is almost assured of reaching World Tour Finals provided Milos Raonic doesn't win Bercy Masters & Tsonga doesn't reach the finals of Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

Roger Federer's all points from Basel, 2013 are countable as in one of his best 6 results from non-masters, he had a zero from Gstaad (as he had lost in the 1st round of Swiss Open, 2013). So, clearly, Roger Federer is in much advantageous position vis-a-vis Gasquet or Wawrinka as they will be able to count points from Basel, 2013 only if they go beyond Quarter-finals of Basel, 2013.


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#8 Vibhuism

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:39 AM

Tommy Haas

 

 

 

Tommy+Haas+Citi+Open+Day+4+3zbFdoPri4zl.

 

 

 

Haas isn't out of World Tour Finals, 2013 qualification, but even if he wins Vienna 2013 title, he will be on 2425 points, but, to qualify for WTF, Haas will need to reach finals of both Valencia Open & Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

If Haas reaches finals of both Valencia Open & Bercy Masters, 2013, Haas will get to 3235 points which as you saw above will not be sufficient.

 

 

 

 

 

 Also, here's another article by me - Who will end 2013 year-end as #1? Will it be Rafa Nadal or Novak Djokovic?

 

 

 

rafole.jpg

 

 

  Read the article right here.


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#9 Tennis Lover

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 05:16 AM

I think Berdych is a certainty unless injury prevents him. That leaves 3 spots for 4 players - Wawrinka, Federer, Tsonga and Gasquet, as I believe Raonic won't make it. I think Wawrinka and Federer are likely to make it, so I believe either one of Tsonga or Gasquet will miss out in the end.



#10 Anna

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 04:24 AM

Great explanation as always, I will be highly surprised if Tsonga qualifies. Jo really missed a great chance because of these tax issues in Switzerland, else, he could have easily earned a few points at Basel. Will be great to see Wawrinka & Gasquet at O2, London.
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#11 Inez

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 04:36 AM

Amazing post. Every thing is so well explained. Of course, Berdych, Federer, Wawrinka & Gasquet will make it. Tsonga was very unlucky this season. Raonic & Haas have really done well in 2013 & to be alive for WTF race with just 2 weeks to go is no mean accomplishment.
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#12 Vibhuism

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 04:12 AM

Breaking News: Tomas Berdych has qualified for ATP Barclays World Tour Finals, 2013

 

 

Read more about it here.


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#13 Vibhuism

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:03 AM

Part-III of this discussion has moved over to a new post covering the remaining matches of Basel & Bercy Masters, 2013. Here's the link ----

 

 

 

http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/1650-roger-federer-will-secure-world-tour-finals-2013-spot-if-he-wins-swiss-indoors-basel-2013/


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