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Roger Federer will secure World Tour Finals, 2013 spot if he wins Swiss Indoors, Basel 2013

roger federer swiss indoors 2013 basel 2013 world tour finals wtf 2013 final showdown atp wtf

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:21 AM

Here's the third & last part of my discussion on World Tour Finals, 2013 qualifications. My first discussion started before Shanghai Masters, 2013 & second discussion was a lead-up post Shanghai Masters, 2013 till Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

Also, as you all know, I was the first to report about Tomas Berdych qualifying for World Tour Finals, 2013 (ATP broke the news almost 20 hours after me), so, now that only 10 days are left in the Tennis season before World Tour Finals, 2013, so, this short discussion is to cover the last 3 qualifications left for World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

 

post-2-0-39814700-1351948935_thumb.jpg

 

File picture of O2 getting ready for the the season ending Barclay's ATP World Tour Finals

 

 

 

This is how the live ATP points of the next 5 opponents looks like (updated just before the start of Federer vs Dimitrov Quarter-final clash at Basel, 2013).

 

 

 

i) Roger Federer ---- 3235 points

 

 

ii)  Stanislas Wawrinka-   3150 points

 

 

iii) Richard Gasquet-- 3120 points

 

 

iv) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ---- 3055 points

 

 

v) MilosRaonic ---- 2770 points

 

 

 

Though, technically, Tommy Haas (2425 points after the 1st round loss @ Valencia Open) isn't out of World Tour Finals, 2013 qualification, but even if we reaches Bercy Masters, 2013 finals, he will be only on 3025 points, which as you can see, will not be sufficient, so the only chance for Haas is to win Bercy Masters title & hope, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga lose before the semis of BNP PARIBAS Masters, Bercy, Paris 2013.

 

 

Scroll down for more detailed analysis as I cover every player's remaining tournaments and the possible cut-off points discussing if  Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic or Tommy Haas can qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013?


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:28 AM

ii) Stan Wawrinka- 3150 points

 

 

 

70459-jsgoQ_X7qBXfnorCigtsTg.jpg

 

 

If Wawrinka reaches Round of 16 @ Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3240 points

 

 

If Wawrinka reaches QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3330 points

 

 

If Wawrinka reaches SF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3510 points

 

 

Verdict: As Wawrinka has 30 points lead over Gasquet, 95 points lead over Tsonga & 380 points lead over Raonic, Wawrinka is almost sure to qualify for WTF, 2013 provided he has a reasonable outing at Bercy Masters, 2013 & reaches the same round level till Tsonga or for that matter, Gasquet at Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

After I had posted the English translation of Stan Wawrinka's interview by Rene Stauffer, I had got a dream that Stan Wawrinka has qualified for World Tour Finals, 2013 & now, that dream is almost sure to become a reality provided Stan Wawrinka can have 3 decent matches at Bercy Masters, 2013.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:32 AM

iii) Richard Gasquet ----- 3120 points (updated after his 1st round loss at Basel, 2013)

 

 

 

Richard+Gasquet+ATP+Masters+Series+Monte

 

 

 

--- So, if Gasquet reaches QF of Bercy Masters, he will get to 3290 points

 

 

 & if Gasquet reaches 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, he will get to 3200 points.

 

 

Verdict: So, as you can see, even Gasquet's real competition at this point of time remains from Jo Willy Tsonga & he will need a decent outing at Bercy Masters, 2013 to ensure his place at World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

Gasquet needs to ensure that he either reaches the same round level as Tsonga or in case of an early loss of Wawrinka, one round level higher than Wawrinka to ensure his place in the World Tour Finals, 2013.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:39 AM

iv) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- 3055 points (updated after Tsonga's loss in Vienna vs Hasse)

 

 

 

Tsonga2-570x457.jpg

 

Tournaments left- only Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

After his SF loss at Vienna & Tsonga not playing at Valencia Open or Swiss Indoors, Basel, 2013, will need a miraculous performance at Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

Tsonga trails by 95 points from Wawrinka & about 65 points from Gasquet.

 

 

Here are the two possible scenarios where in Tsonga can qualify for WTF, 2013 ----

 

 

(i) If Tsonga reaches the Round-3 of Bercy Masters, 2013 & if Gasquet loses in the 1st Round of Bercy Masters, 2013) as Tsonga will be on 3135 points & Gasquet will be on 3130 points.

 

 

 

or (ii) if Tsonga reaches QF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to 3235 points & if Wawrinka loses in the 2nd Round, he will be only on 3160 points (3rd round loss: 3240 points) or if Gasquet loses in the 3rd Round (3210 points) of Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

 

So, one thing that is almost sure, that Tsonga's only & only chance to qualify will be if he reaches at least the Round-3 of Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

If Tsonga loses before the 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will be out from the WTF race & Wawrinka, Gasquet will qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013.


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:40 AM

v) Milos Raonic- 2770 points

 

 

 

raonic1.jpg

 

 

Tournaments left- only Bercy Masters, 2013 as he has withdrawn from Basel, 2013

 

 

 

If Raonic reaches the SF of Bercy Masters, 2013, he will get to only 3130 points which you can see from above will not be sufficient to challenge Gasquet of Wawrinka.

 

 

So, Raonic's last chance to qualify for World Tour Finals is to reach finals of Bercy Masters, 2013, if Raonic reaches the finals, he will get to 3370 points & that will be sufficient to challenge Tsonga, Gasquet & Wawrinka.


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#6 Vibhuism

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:01 AM

Now, is the turn of Roger Federer:   3235 points (points just before the Quarter-finals clash vs Grigor Dimitrov, Basel 2013).

 

 

 

 

940929_571814722848987_154312477_n.jpg

 

 

If Federer loses in the Quarter-finals of Basel, 2013, he will stay on 3235 points.

 

If Federer reaches the semis of Basel, 2013, he will be on 3325 points.

 

If Federer reaches the finals of Basel, 2013, he will be on 3445 points.

 

If Federer wins Basel, 2013 title, he will be on 3645 points.

 

 

Thus, if Roger Federer wins the Swiss Indoors, Basel 2013 title, he will ensure his place in the World Tour Finals, 2013 as after winning Basel title, Federer will lead by 495 points from Wawrinka, 525 points from Gasquet & 580 points from Tsonga.

 

 

& the best that two of these three can achieve is to reach finals of Bercy Masters, 2013, meaning that the 3rd one can only add up maxm of 360 points by reaching Semis of Bercy Masters, thereby ensuring that Roger Federer will qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013 by winning Swiss Indoors, Basel 2013 title.

 

 

 

Remarks

 

 

In case of a loss in the quarter-finals at Basel &

 

 

then a QF appearance at Bercy Masters will take Roger Federer on 3415 points.

 

 

& If Federer reaches Round-3 (Round of 16, just by winning 1 match @ Bercy Masters) @ Bercy Masters, 2013, he will reach ---   3325 points.

 

 

If Federer reaches the Quarter-finals of Bercy Masters, he is assured of reaching World Tour Finals provided Milos Raonic doesn't win Bercy Masters & Tsonga doesn't reach the finals of Bercy Masters, 2013.

 

 

If Federer reaches the Round of 16 @ Bercy Masters, Federer is assured of reaching World Tour Finals provided Milos Raonic doesn't reach Bercy Masters finals & Tsonga doesn't reach the semi-finals of Bercy Masters, 2013.


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#7 sausan

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 06:07 PM

great explanation as always, fingers crossed to Federer


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#8 Guest_Niraperky_*

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 12:42 AM

An enormous thanks for everything you do and regardless of your personal favourites (so to speak) you always remain biased and fair.

your comments are loyal, head/heart and this year has been in general a treacherous year for many great players and new players are introducing themselves which is natural and welcoming.

It is going to be tough for the fighting ones  left for London, but I believe they feel when the strength, movements are no longer identical to the previous years.

Hope, believe and surprises are awaiting around the corner.

Thank god for tennis, the wonderful athletes like the maestro ROGERFEDERER  and all the others.



#9 Vibhuism

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 12:47 AM

Now, because Gasquet & Tsonga are scheduled to play in the 3rd round of Bercy Masters, so that means, that only Gasquet or Tsonga can go past Federer's points.

 

 

What that means is that if Haas or Raonic don't win Bercy Masters, 2013, Federer is 100% sure to qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013.


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#10 Guest_Susie_*

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 03:57 AM

Especially after his great win today! 3325 points and clear water between him and Stan/Gasquet! Looking good!

#11 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 12:21 AM

So, after today's SF win at Basel,

 

 

 

Roger Federer is on 3445 points....

 

 

Stan Wawrinka --- 3150 points

 

 

Richard Gasquet --- 3120 points

 

 

Jo-Willy Tsonga:   3055 points

 

 

Raonic --- 2770 points

 

 

 

A closer looks at the Bercy Draw, which you can see here,

 

 

suggests that in the semi-finals,

 

 

it can be Milos Raonic vs Richard Gasquet

 

 

& other can be Stan Wawrinka vs say Del Potro

 

 

 

So, if Gasquet reaches SF, he will be on 3480 points

 

 

Stan Wawrinka reaches Semis, he will be on 3510 points

 

 

& Raonic if he wins will be on 3770 points.....

 

 

So, now, its sure, if Raonic fails to win Bercy Masters, Roger Federer is 100% through to WORLD TOUR FINALS....

 

 

Tommy Haas will not be able to exceed Roger Federer's points even, if Tommy Haas wins Bercy title.


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#12 Tennis Lover

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 05:52 AM

Good analysis. Realistically, I don't see the guys below Federer doing better in Bercy than Federer, so I think it's safe to say Federer is through to London.



#13 Guest_Guest_*

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 09:57 AM

Hi,

 

I've got a question which is unrelated to this thread.

 

In the Emirates Doubles Team Ranking, although Leander Paes and Radek Stepanek are ranked 7th, they're still qualified. But the 5th amd 6th ranked teams aren't. How's this possible?

 



#14 Guest_uday_*

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 11:05 AM

what about tsonga in bercy??????if he wins federer still may be out??????please VIBHUISM explain the same (if federer loses today) including tsonga

 



#15 V.K. Batra

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 02:20 PM

Hi,

 

I've got a question which is unrelated to this thread.

 

In the Emirates Doubles Team Ranking, although Leander Paes and Radek Stepanek are ranked 7th, they're still qualified. But the 5th amd 6th ranked teams aren't. How's this possible?

 

Well, see there are two rankings in Doubles. One is individual specific points in doubles and second is doubles team ranking with points.

 

The world tour finals qualifications is as per team ranking points.

 

 

So, even if a Doubles player is ranked #1, he isn't ensured of a qualification @ WTF, until & unless, his team qualifies. Same thing happens in WTA.



#16 V.K. Batra

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 02:26 PM

what about tsonga in bercy??????if he wins federer still may be out??????please VIBHUISM explain the same (if federer loses today) including tsonga

 

 

IF Tsonga wins Bercy, then Raonic will not be able to exceed Federer's points.

 

 

See, as Tsonga & Gasquet are scheduled to play in the 3rd round of Bercy (see 3 posts above this), so, only one of these two can surpass Federer where he is today.

 

 

So, the only way, Federer will not qualify is if : Federer loses Basel Final & Bercy 1st match:

 

 

 

(i) Wawrinka reaches finals

 

(ii) Gasquet reaches semis or Tsonga reaches finals (only one of them can go past the 3rd Round)

 

(iii) Milos Raonic wins Bercy Masters.

 

 

No other permutation besides this.



#17 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 10:03 PM

Now, here are the live points updated after Federer's loss to Del Potro ----

 

 

Roger Federer - 3445 points

 

 

Stan Wawrinka --- 3150 points

 

 

Richard Gasquet --- 3120 points

 

 

Jo-Willy Tsonga:   3055 points

 

 

Raonic --- 2770 points

 

 

 

So, now, as explained above, if Roger Federer wins just 1 match at Bercy, he will get to 3445+90 points = 3535 points.

 

 

A closer looks at the Bercy Draw, which you can see here,

 

 

suggests that in the semi-finals,

 

 

it can be Milos Raonic vs Richard Gasquet

 

 

& other can be Stan Wawrinka vs say Del Potro

 

 

 

So, at best, if Gasquet reaches SF, he will be on 3480 points

 

 

Stan Wawrinka reaches Semis, he will be on 3510 points

 

 

& Raonic if he wins will be on 3770 points.....

 

 

 

So, Federer if he wins just 1 match at Bercy which will be against Anderson or Youzhny, he will 100% qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013.


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#18 Guest_Nidhi_*

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 10:37 PM

Well, see there are two rankings in Doubles. One is individual specific points in doubles and second is doubles team ranking with points.

 

The world tour finals qualifications is as per team ranking points.

 

 

So, even if a Doubles player is ranked #1, he isn't ensured of a qualification @ WTF, until & unless, his team qualifies. Same thing happens in WTA.

 

Hi,

 

Thanks for the reply. So the points which are there on the table, are just additions of both the individual players doubles points? And where can I find the points for the team?



#19 Guest_shahzad siddique_*

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 10:48 PM

I hope federer wins his first match at bercy
.

#20 Guest_luis_*

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 11:06 PM

POR SUPUESTO QUE VA A CLASIFICAR.....GANE O PIERDA SIEMPRE-SIEMPRE ES Y SERÁ EL MAS GRANDE JUGADOR DE LA HISTORIA PROFESIONAL DEL TENIS  :D





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