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Scenarios on who will be second man to qualify for semi-finals from Group-A at ATP World Tour Finals, 2013

wtf 2013 atp wtf 2013 world tour finals 2013 final showdown atp finalshowdown finalshowdown 2013 stan wawrinka david ferrer tomas berdych

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#1 Vibhu batra

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 01:51 AM

Rafa Nadal after beating Stan Wawrinka today not only ensured that he will be 2013 year-end ATP World No. 1 under all possible scenarios, but also became the first man to qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013 semi-finals

 

 

 

Rafael+Nadal+Barclays+ATP+World+Tour+Fin
 
Rafa Nadal's reaction (in picture above) after beating Stan Wawrinka that helped him to clinch the year-ending ATP #1 ranking for the 3rd time
 
 
 
Update: I have updated the scenarios on who can qualify for semi-finals after David Ferrer vs Tomas match, for that click here.
 
 
 
Here are the Group-A standings (updated after Rafa Nadal vs Stan Wawrinka match) ::
 
 
 
1) Rafa Nadal (qualified) , 2 wins, Sets 4-0
 
2) Stan Wawrinka 1 win- 1 loss, Sets 2-3 (40%)
 
3) Tomas Berdych 0 win-1 loss, Sets 1-2 (33%)
 
 4) David Ferrer 0 win-1 loss, Sets 0-2 (0%)
 
 
 
Before, we go any further, for a detailed explanation on how players qualify for Semis from the round robin group stage, click here.
 
 
So, here's a quick discussion on who will be the second man to qualify for semis from Group-A
 
 
1. Stan Wawrinka
 
 
The sure scenarios where in Wawrinka will qualify :
 
 
(i) If David Ferrer beats Berdych in straight sets or 2 sets to 1, then that would mean, Tomas Berdych will be out from the semis race & then, if Stan Wawrinka beats David Ferrer by any margin, Wawrinka will be through to the semis.
 
 
 
(ii) If Tomas Berdych beats David Ferrer in straight sets, then Berdcyh will be 3 sets to 2 or a set win ration of 60%.
 
 
Then, Stan Wawinka will surely qualify for semis if he beats David Ferrer in the last match by any margin & Tomas Berdych loses to Rafael Nadal.
 
 
These are the two scenarios where in Stan Wawrinka will surely qualify for the semis at WTF, 2013. (Please note: these scenarios are before the start of Ferrer-Berdcyh match). Will update more scenarios after this match gets over.
 
 
Scroll down for more scenarios where in Tomas Berdych or Rafa Nadal can qualify for World Tour Finals, 2013.

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#2 Vibhu batra

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 02:04 AM

2. David Ferrer

 

 

David Ferrer after losing the first match to Rafa Nadal in straight sets, has only 1 feasible scenario left to qualify for semis. He needs to beat Tomas Berdych and then, Stan Wawrinka by any margin & if he does beat both Berdych & Wawrinka, he will surely qualify for the semis of World Tour Finals, 2013.

 

 

 

3. Tomas Berdcyh

 

 

Tomas Berdych will qualify under the following three scenarios :

 

 

(i) If Berdych beats David Ferrer by 2 sets to 1 & Rafa Nadal by 2 sets to 1, Berdych will be on 5-4 or a set win ratio of 55.56%

 

 

& Wawrinka beats David Ferrer by 2 sets to 1, then Wawrinka will be on 4-4 or a ratio of 50%.

 

 

 

(ii) If Berdych beats David Ferrer by 2 sets to 0 & wins against Rafa Nadal against 2 sets to 1, then Berdych will be on 5-3 sets, win ratio of 62.5%

 

 

 & even if Wawrinka beats Ferrer by 2 sets to 0, Wawrinka will be on 4-3 or a win ration of 57.15%

 

 

(iii) If Berdych beats David Ferrer by 2 sets to 0 & loses against Rafa Nadal 2 sets to 1, then Berdych will be on 3-4 or a set win ratio of 42.85%

 

 

 & Wawrinka loses to David Ferrer by 2 sets to 0, then Wawrinka will be on 2-5 or a win ratio of 28.57%

 

 

 

or if Wawrinka loses to Ferrer by 2 sets to 1, then Wawrinka will be on 3-5 sets win ratio or 37.5%

 

 

  & in this scenario, David Ferrer will be on 2-4, or a set win % of 33.33%.

 

 

 

Just in a nutshell, Best scenarios for

 

 

(I) Stan Wawrinka- David Ferrer beats Tomas Berdych by any margin & Wawrinka beats Ferrer by any margin.

 

 

(ii)  David Ferrer- Beat both Berdych & Wawrinka.

 

 

(iii) Tomas Berdych- win both matches against Ferrer & Nadal or win against Ferrer in straight sets & win at least one set against Nadal & hope, Wawrinka loses against Ferrer by any margin.

 

 

 

 

So, these are the current scenarios just before the start of Berdych-Ferrer match.

 

 

Scroll down for the updated scenarios updated after Berdych-Ferrer match....

 

 

 

 

Update: I have updated the scenarios on who can qualify for semi-finals after David Ferrer vs Tomas match, for that click here.

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#3 Vibhu batra

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 03:53 AM

Now, here's how the Group standings look like after Tomas Berdych's win over David Ferrer-----

 

 

 

1) Rafael Nadal - qualified & will surely end as Number 1 in the group if he wins just 1 set against Tomas Berdcy.

 

 

2) Stan Wawrinka - currently with 1 win & 2-3 in sets or 40%

 

 

3) Tomas Berdych --- currently with 1 win & 3-2 in sets or 60%

 

 

4) David Ferrer--- 0 wins & 0-4 sets, even, if he wins the match vs Wawrinka in straight, he can get to a maximum of 2-4 or 33.33% & at worst, Tomas Berdych will gets to is 3-5 or 37.5%, so, unfortunately David Ferrer is out from the semis race.

 

 

Now, our scenarios are even more clear -----

 

 

 

(I) If Tomas Berdych beats Rafael Nadal in straight sets, Tomas Berdych will be the No. 1 in the group, Rafael Nadal will be No. 2, Stan Wawrinka will be #3, even if Wawrinka beats Ferrer in straight sets.

 

 

(ii) If Tomas Berdych beats Rafael Nadal 2 sets to 1,  Rafael Nadal will be the No. 1 in the group, Berdych will be No. 2 & Stan Wawrinka will be #3, even if Wawrinka beats Ferrer in straight sets.

 

 

(iii) If Rafael Nadal wins in straight sets or 2 sets to 1 vs Tomas Berdych, all Stan Wawrinka will need to do is to win vs David Ferrer to qualify for semis. Rafa Nadal will be #1 & Wawrinka will be #2 in the group...

 

 

(iv) If Berdych loses the match vs Rafael Nadal in straight sets & Wawrinka loses to David Ferrer in straight sets, then also Tomas Berdych will qualify for the semis & Wawrinka will miss out....

 

 

(v) Now, this last scenario is interesting or should I say, worth discussing as many people asked me to clarify ::::

 

 

If Berdych loses in straight sets vs Rafael Nadal, he will get to 3-4 or a set win % of  42.85%

 

& If Wawrinka loses against Ferrer 2 sets to 1, Wawrinka will also be on 3-5 or a set win % of 37.5%

 

 

& Ferrer will be at 2-5 or a % of 28.57%.

 

 

So, even, in this scenario, Berdych qualifies.

 

 

So, scenarios in a quick nutshell

 

 

 

a) if Berdych wins vs Nadal, he surely qualifies for Semi-finals

 

 

b. If Berdych loses & Wawrinka loses, Berdych surely qualifies.

 

 

c) if Berdych loses & Wawrinka wins vs Ferrer (by any margin), Wawrinka qualifies.


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#4 sausan

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 04:02 AM

Thanks for the explanation thumbs up, hope  Wawrinka wins & qualifies

 

 

 

So, scenarios in a quick nutshell

 

 

 

a) if Berdych wins vs Nadal, he surely qualifies for Semi-finals

 

 

b. If Berdych loses & Wawrinka loses, Berdych surely qualifies.

 

 

c) if Berdych loses & Wawrinka wins vs Ferrer (by any margin), Wawrinka qualifies.

 

 

 

No where will we needed to see the sets or the games scenarios, just if Berdych wins in straight sets vs Rafael Nadal, Berdych will be #1 in the group & Nadal will be #2.

 

 

If Nadal wins just one set vs Berdych, he is sure to end #1 in his Group.


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#5 Vibhu batra

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 04:59 AM

So, scenarios in a quick nutshell

 

 

 

a) if Berdych wins vs Nadal, he surely qualifies for Semi-finals

 

 

b. If Berdych loses & Wawrinka loses, Berdych surely qualifies.

 

 

c) if Berdych loses & Wawrinka wins vs Ferrer (by any margin), Wawrinka qualifies.

 

 

 

As per round robin rules for WTF, if two players are equal in number of match wins, then the player who won their head to head will be at a higher rank in the group.

 

 

If 3 players are equal in number of matches won, then head to head isn't relevant, then sets won % is relevant, if sets won-lost % is equal, if sets won-lost % is equal, then number of games won-lost % & post that, number of points won-lost %.

 

 

 

For a detailed explanation on how players qualify for Semis from the round robin group stage, click here.

 

 

 

No where will we needed to see the sets or the games scenarios, just if Berdych wins in straight sets vs Rafael Nadal, Berdych will be #1 in the group & Nadal will be #2.

 

 

If Nadal wins just one set vs Berdych, he is sure to end #1 in his Group.


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#6 ashRAFAN

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 10:03 AM

One line scenario for stanislas wawrinka, "win your match and pray to God."

#7 Vibhu batra

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 05:19 AM

As Novak Djokovic has qualified for semis & will end Group-B as #1, & Rafa Nadal needs to wins just 1 set vs Tomas Berdych to clinch the top spot of the group,

 

 

 

So, most likely, the semi-finals will be

 

 

Rafa Nadal vs Federer/DelPotro (1st semis)

 

 

& Novak Djokovic vs Wawrinka/Berdych (2nd semis)

 

 

For Group B scenarios, click here.


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#8 Vibhu batra

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 04:19 AM

So, Wawrinka has made it to the semis & justice done for his hard work in 2013 :)....


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#9 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 04:38 PM

When would the reserve players ~ Tsonga and Raonic ~ not become eligible to replace a member of the final 8, in the event of illness or injury, in this competition?

My guess would be after the Round Robin stage. It would seem a bit unfair if they were to stand in on finals day and go on the win ~ which could be possible as no doubt they would not be as tired as the other finalist ...

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