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ATP Ranking scenarios post French Open Roland Garros, 2014

rg 14 roland garros 2014 atp rankings 2014 atp 2014 atp ranks 2014

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 01:33 AM

This is how the ATP rankings of Top-20 looked like, a week before the start of French Open, 2014 on 19th May, 2014 ----

 

 

 

top20.png

 

 

As you all know, Grand Slams are the most yielding in terms of not only the prize money but also of Ranking Points, so the following questions are most relevant from the rankings point of view -

 

 

 

(i) Will Rafa Nadal be ranked #1 even if he fails to French Open 2014 or has an early exit at French Open, 2013? Will Novak Djokovic retain No. 1 if he wins the French Open, 2014 or reaches the final at Roland Garros?


 

(ii) How many points will Rafael Nadal lose if he fails to defend his title at French Open? Will Rafa Nadal drop out from Top-4, in case of an early exit? What will be his ranking post French Open, 2014?

 

(iii) How much the ATP points difference will be between Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka & Roger Federer be after French Open, 2014?

 

 

post-25-0-24370400-1399994492.jpg

 

 

 

(iv) Can Roger Federer regain #3 ATP ranking from Stan Wawrinka after French Open, 2014 or will Wawrinka remain the Swiss No.1 post Roland Garros, 2014?

 

 

(v)  What would be the ATP points of Top 4 be in the ATP Ranking points to be declared on 9th June, 2014 (after French Open, 2014)?


 

(vi) How many ATP ranking points are at stake during French Open, 2014?

 


(vii)  As David Ferrer was the losing finalist in 2013, so, how much can his rankings fall if he fails to reach the finals of French Open, 2014? Will Ferrer stay in the ATP Top-5 post Roland Garros, 2014/.

 

 

 x) How many ATP Ranking points will Juan Martin Del Potro lose out for skipping French Open, 2014? Will he stay in the Top-8 post Roland Garros?

 

 

(x) What are the ranking scenarios for Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Ernests Gulbis at French Open, 2014?

 

 

 

So, for getting the answers to all these questions & the likely changes to Top 5 rankings, please scroll down to the following posts.


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 01:34 AM

Before we go any further, let me firstly remind you how many ATP ranking points are at stake in the Grand slams including French Open, 2014?

 

 

1. The winner gets 2000 points.


2. The losing finalist gets 1200 points.

 

3. The losing Semi-finalist gets 720 points each.

 

4. The losing Quarter-Finalist gets 360 points each.

 

5. The loser of Round of 16 (Round-4) gets 180 points each.

 

6. The loser of Round of 32 (Round-3) takes 90 points each.

 

7. The loser of Round of 64 (Round-2) gets 45 points each.

 

8. The loser of Round of 128 (Round-1) gets 10 points each.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 03:04 AM

How many points the Top 10  have to defend at the French Open, 2014?

 

 

Rafael Nadal is the defending champion as he had won the French Open 2013 , so, Nadal is defending 2000 points at French Open, 2014.

 

 

Novak Djokovic had lost in the semi-Finals of French Open, 2013, so he is defending 720 points at French Open, 2014.

 

 

Stan Wawrinka had lost in the QF, so, he is defending 360 points at French Open 2014.

 

 

Roger Federer had lost in the QF at French Open, 2013, so he has to defend 360 points at French Open, 2014.

 

 

David Ferrer had lost in the Final @ French Open, 2013, so he has to defend 1200 points at the French Open, 2014.

 

 

Tomas Berdych had lost in the 1st Round @ RG, 2013, so, he is defending only 10 points at French Open 2014.

 

 

Andy Murray had skipped French Open, 2013, so Murray isn't defending any point at RG, 2014.

 

 

Del Potro had skipped French Open, 2013, so, he won't lose any points.

 

 

Raonic lost in the 3rd Round of French Open, 2013, so Raonic is defending 90 points at the French Open, 2014.

 

 

Kei Nishikori lost in the 4th Round of French Open, 2012, so Nishikori is defending only 180 points at the French Open, 2014.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 04:11 AM

Here is a per Round calculation sheet of Top 8

 

 

 

Attached File  roland garros 2014 by Vibhu batra.pdf   152.98KB   1206 downloads

 

 

 

PS: Feel free to download this to understand how the ATP Ranking keep increasing after every round @ French Open, 2013.

 

 

 

Scroll down for analysis of the possible ranking changes....


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 05:08 AM

From the above sheet,

 

 

 

 (i) it is 100% clear that Rafa Nadal will retain his #1 ranking if he manages to defend his Roland Garros title, that would mean that he would keep his #1 ranking *at least* till the end of Wimbledon & complete, 141 weeks at ATP #1.

 

 

If Nadal loses in the finals, then he can remain #1 only if Djokovic loses in or before the semi-final stage...

 

 

(ii) Djokovic will regain #1 ranking from Rafa Nadal (after 35 weeks) post Roland Garros, 2014 , if :

 

 

(a) Djokovic wins the title, irrespective of whether Nadal reaches the finals or loses earlier.

 

 

(b. If Nadal loses before the final, then Djokovic needs to reach just the 3rd Round to regain #1 ATP Ranking....

 

 

 

(iii) Stan Wawrinka has a 705 points lead over Federer. Federer can get up to #3 rank if he manages to reach the finals & Wawrinka loses in the QF.

 

 

Wawrinka & Federer are assured to stay in the Top-4 unless Berdych or Murray don't reach finals of Roland Garros, 2014.

 

 

(iv) David Ferrer is defending 1200 points at RG, 2014 & an early loss, can move him out of the Top-8, as you can see from the chart above.

 

 

 

(v) Tomas Berdych can at best get to #5, but to have a realistic chance of reaching the Top-4 post Roland Garros, he needs to reach the finals of French Open, 2014.

 

 

(vi) Del Potro is also almost sure to remain in the Top-8 unless Raonic or Nishikori manage to reach semi-final or beyond....

 

 

 (vii) Andy Murray has been ranked in the Top-8 since August, 2008 (5 years & 10 months) & its almost sure, that he will remain in the Top-8 *at least* till Wimbledon unless Nishikori or Raonic manage to reach the finals of Roland Garros & he loses out early.

 

 

 

For any other player's ranking, feel free to drop in a comment and I will try to reply as soon as possible. Watch out this space as I will keep updating more ranking scenarios in the coming days.


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#6 Prithvi

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 01:07 PM

How about Grigor Dimitrov?



#7 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 01:55 PM

Well done Vibhu, another masterful piece of work explaining the complexities of the ranking system. The chart is particularly helpful :)

Fingers crossed that Roger can make the semis at least this time ...

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#8 Vibhuism

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 02:34 PM

How about Grigor Dimitrov?

 

 

Grigor Dimitrov is defending 90 points at RG,so, supposing he reaches QF, he will have a net gain of 250 points. If Nishikori or Raonic lose out early, then he might just break in to Top-10 post French Open. With hardly any points to defend post French Open till the end of US Open, yes, I do see him breaking in to top-10 post US Open, 2014....


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#9 Niraperky

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Posted 24 May 2014 - 02:21 AM

Yet again, highly appreciate the clarifications on points which I still believe to be quite complex. Roger has been lucky with the draw and I truly hope he makes it to to the finals or the QF/SF. He kooks happy, healthy and fit.
Del Potro will not be playing, where does he stand?
Should be there for the finals so Roger better be present.
Appreciation to you.

#10 sausan

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Posted 24 May 2014 - 07:37 PM

Lots and lots of thanks to you, about explanations  ;)....

 

Hope Federer do it..


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#11 Guest_Dawinder Singh_*

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:58 AM

Thanx vibhu! Fed will reach top 3

#12 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:59 AM

Update: Now, that Wawrinka has lost in the 1st round of Roland Garros, 2014 :

 

 

Scenarios updated :

 

 

(I) Roger Federer will become Swiss #1 after 4 months, if he reaches the semi-finals of Roland Garros, 2014.

 

 

(ii) Roger Federer will surely become #3 if he reaches the semis of Roland Garros, 2014 & Ferrer or Berdych or Murray don't win the Roland Garros title.....

 

 

iii) Federer will stay ahead of Ferrer & Murray in the rankings if he reaches the 3rd round & if they don't reach the RG finale.


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#13 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 02:18 AM

I will be starting a new topic about Wimbledon, 2014 seedings in the next 16 odd hours, but here's a quick update for you all ----

 

 

If Roger Federer reaches just the 3rd round of Roland Garros, he will assure himself of *at least* #4 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014 (unless Berdych doesn't win Roland Garros title).

 

 

Here are the tentative seeds for Wimbledon, 2014 (as of today) :

 

 

1) Djokovic

 

2) Nadal

 

3) Murray

 

4) Federer

 

5) Berdych if he reaches the QF

 

6) Wawrinka

 

7) Ferrer

 

8) Raonic


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#14 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 03:04 AM

I seem to remember that Wimbledon has an odd quirk with regards to rankings, crediting tournaments won on grass, that's why Murray is as high as No3, seeing as he won Wimbledon last year, no doubt Vibhu will explain this far better than I have in his forthcoming post. :)

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#15 Guest_Meyo rios_*

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 08:02 AM

Appreciate such tan extraordinary informaciĆ³n, thanks forma tour dedication ti this importante issue ti all Roger Federer Fans, specially me, i am a #1 RF fan follower =)

#16 Tennis Lover

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Posted 30 May 2014 - 12:55 PM

Great work as always, Vibhu! Now that Wawrinka is out, Federer can become no. 3 if he reaches the final. Let's see what happens.



#17 TrueProdigy

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Posted 01 June 2014 - 09:15 PM

Now that Roger has lost to Gulbis in the 4th round, will Roger drop to #5 if Tomas Berdych defeats Ernests Gulbis in the quarter-finals?



#18 Vibhuism

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Posted 01 June 2014 - 10:57 PM

Now that Roger has lost to Gulbis in the 4th round, will Roger drop to #5 if Tomas Berdych defeats Ernests Gulbis in the quarter-finals?

 

 

Yes, I had explained in my calculation sheet, 6 posts above this. Here it is again (click here)....


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#19 Guest_Rhodri_*

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:18 AM

I'm confused. Earlier in this thread, you wrote:

 

Federer will stay ahead of Ferrer, Berdych & Murray in the rankings if he reaches the 3rd round & any of these 3 don't go on to win the RG title.

 

Fed reached the 4th round, as we know, and none of those three has won the RG title (yet). But now you're answering 'yes' to this question:

 

Now that Roger has lost to Gulbis in the 4th round, will Roger drop to #5 if Tomas Berdych defeats Ernests Gulbis in the quarter-finals?

 

Could you please explain what's going on? Thanks a lot.



#20 Vibhuism

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:24 AM

I'm confused. Earlier in this thread, you wrote:

 

Federer will stay ahead of Ferrer, Berdych & Murray in the rankings if he reaches the 3rd round & any of these 3 don't go on to win the RG title.

 

Fed reached the 4th round, as we know, and none of those three has won the RG title (yet). But now you're answering 'yes' to this question:

 

Now that Roger has lost to Gulbis in the 4th round, will Roger drop to #5 if Tomas Berdych defeats Ernests Gulbis in the quarter-finals?

 

Could you please explain what's going on? Thanks a lot.

 

 

Hello, thanks for pointing that out...

 

 

I will clarify again ::

 

 

(i) Federer will stay ahead of Murray & Ferrer if they don't reach Roland Garros finale...

 

 

 (ii) If Berdych reaches the semi-finals of Roland Garros, he will get to a career high ranking of #4 & Federer will drop down to #5....

 

 

See my detailed calculation sheet for per round points calculation... Here it is again (click here).


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