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Projected Wimbledon 2014 Men's singles seedings and every thing that you need to know about Wimbledon seedings

wimbledon 2014 wimbledon wimbledon seedings wimbledonn seedings explained grand slam itf itf rules

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 02:27 AM

Though, this topic was supposed to be posted post Roland Garros, 2014, but after a heated discussion with a few people on Twitter read Trolls has forced me to start this topic at about 3 am local time.

 

 

Though, the outcome of the French Open 2014 will play an important role in the seedings of Wimbledon 2014, but let us start our discussion for projecting the Men's seedings for Wimbledon 2014 championship on the 2nd day of Roland Garros.

 

 

I often get asked this question day-in & day-out, how does the Seedings of Wimbledon Championship get done?

 

 

 

Wimbledon championship unlike the other Grand slams viz Australian Open, French Open & US Open doesn't blindly follow the ATP Rankings for seedings of Men's singles championship.

 

 

b_Fig13-Aerial-South_AELTC.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

Is it possible for Grand slams (including Wimbledon) to give player seedings differently from their ATP Ranks?

 

 

 

As ITF is the Governing Body of Grand Slams, so ITF's 2013 OFFICIAL GRAND SLAM RULE BOOK (you can download the rule book from here) in regard to "Selection of Seeds" states that ---

 

 

The selection of seeds will be at the discretion of each individual Grand Slam Tournament Committee, however, the computer ranking list dated approximately seven (7) days prior to the tournament shall be a primary, but not sole, basis for such selection.

 

{Extract from Page-24, f(ii)}

 

 

 

So, in a nutshell, every Grand Slam can give seedings as per their own discretion with the primary basis being the ATP (computer) rankings.

 

 

 

 

Why doesn't the Wimbledon Championship organizing committee follow the ATP Rankings for Seedings?

 

 

Though, the main criteria for seedings is the ATP rankings but how ever, as Wimbledon organizing committee believes playing Wimbledon championship (on Grass) requires some additional skills, so they tend to add points earned from tournaments played on Grass (which any how are not too many these days). That's why, Wimbledon adds up the points earned by players on Grass Court tournaments.

 

 

 

What is the formula for making the Surface adjustment for seedings of Men's singles Wimbledon championship?

 

 

Since 2002 (after an agreement with the ATP), Wimbledon organizing committee can alter the seedings of players ranked Top-32 in the ATP Rankings.

 

The main thing to emphasize here is that only the seedings of Top-32 (based on the entry list & competing) ranked ATP Players can be altered in the following way :

 

 

 

(i) ATP Points of these players as announced on Monday falling immediately before the day of Draw to be added with -

 

 

(ii) 100% of the points earned by these players in all Grass Court Tournaments* in the past 12 months +

 

 

(iii) 75% of the points earned by these players for the best Grass Court Tournament** in the 12 months before that {i.e. 12 months prior to (ii)}

 

 

 

*All Grass court Tournaments here imply Tournaments just before the start of the previous year's Wimbledon Championships till the date of Draw of the current Wimbledon championships.

 

 

**Best Grass Court Tournament (with the main emphasis on the word Tournament) in the 12 months prior to that - That implies that the points earned in any 1  Grass court Tournament (one tournament where in the player earned maximum points) will be added.

 

 

Okay, enough of theoretical explanation of seeding systems, the discussion on how the seedings for Wimbledon 2014, will look like is explained in the following post.

 

 

Scroll down to the following posts for that in-depth analysis on Wimbledon 2014 seedings.


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 03:28 AM

Now, that Stan Wawrinka has lost in the 1st round of Roland Garros, 2014 & with this loss, he became the 1st guy in 16 years to lose his 1st round match at Roland Garros after having won Australian Open. The last man to lose at RG's 1st round after having won Australian Open tilte was Petr Korda in 1998....

 

 

 

For a detailed ranking scenarios & per round break-up of Roland Garros, 2014 ATP points, please click here.

 

 

Thus, as of today, these are the ATP Points of Top 8 : (Del potro not considered here, as he has withdrawn from Wimbledon)

 

 

1. Djokovic --- 11,175 points

 

2. Nadal: 10,545 points

 

3. Wawrinka:  5480 pts

 

4. Federer: 4810 pts

 

5. Berdych - 4365

 

6. Murray - 4130 (points before 1st Round)

 

7. Ferrer --  3840 pts (pts before 1st Round)

 

8. Raonic - 2930 pts

 

 

Scroll down for further alterations to these points as per Wimbledon seedings explanation.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 04:07 AM

Okay, let us add points (100% for 2013 Grass Court tourneys & 75% of the best performance at Grass court in 2012)---

 

 

 

1. Djokovic : 

 

 

 2013 Grass court performances :::  1200 points at Wimbledon 2013 (Final) &

 

2012's best result on Grass : Wimbledon (SF) : 75% of 720 points = 540 points

 

 

Nole is assured to get 1740 more for Wimbledon seedings, that means, he is assured to be #1 seed for Wimbledon, 2014 even if he loses early at Roland Garros, 2014.

 

 

 

2. Rafa Nadal:

 

 

 

2013 Grass court : 10,  

 

 

Performance of 2012  Wimbledon - 45 points or 75% of 45 or almost, 33 points.

 

 

Thus, he will get only 43 points for seedings of Wimbledon, that would mean, he would be seeded #2 for Wimbledon, 2014, even if he wins, Roland Garros, 2014.

 

 

3. Andy Murray

 

 

Wimbledon 2013 = 2000 points (winner) & Queen's = 250 , so total points of 2013 = 2250

 

 

Wimbledon 2012 (his best performance in 2012 on grass was Final @ Wimby) = 1200 points , so 75% of 1200 = 900

 

 

So, total points added to Murray's points for Wimby seedings= 3150

 

 

4) Roger Federer

 

 

Wimbledon 2013 = 45 points (2nd Round) & Halle = 250 , so total points of 2013 = 265

 

 

& Wimbledon 2012 (best result) winner: 2000 points, so 75% of 2000 pts = 1500 points

 

 

So, total points added to Federer's points for Wimby seedings= 1765

 

 

 

5) Tomas Berdych

 

 

Wimbledon 2013 = 360 points (QF) & Queen's = 90 , so total points of 2013 = 450

 

 

& 2012 (best result on Grass) Halle QF: 45 points, so 75% of 45 pts = 33 points

 

 

So, total points added to Berdych's points for Wimby seedings=  483 points

 

 

 

6) Stan Wawrinka

 

 

Wimbledon 2013 = 10 pts (1st Round) & Hertogenbosch Finalist = 150 points , so total points of 2013 = 160

 

 

& 2012 (best result) Wimby 1st Round: 10 points, so 75% of 10 pts = 7 points

 

 

So, total points added to Wawrinka's points for Wimby seedings=  167 points

 

 

 

7) David Ferrer

 

 

Wimbledon 2013 = 360 points (QF)  , so total points of 2013 = 360

 

 

& 2012 (best result) Wimbledon QF: 360 points, so 75% of 360 pts = 270 points

 

 

So, total points added to Ferrer's points for Wimby seedings=  630 points

 

 

Scroll down for a brief summary.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 04:28 AM

As, I explained above, even, if we presume that Andy Murray goes on to win Roland Garros & then Queen's title, then also, he will get to 9270 points ( 6120+3150) for Wimbledon seedings, which is less than the starting points of (Roland Garros deducted points of) Rafa Nadal by 1300 points.

 

 

 

This now confirms that -----

 

 

Novak Djokovic will be the #1 seed for Wimbledon, 2014

 

& Rafa Nadal will be the #2 seed for Wimby, 2014.

 

 

 

The real battle is for #3 & #4 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014 :::::

 

 

As, I explained above, Murray's starting points before Roland Garros, 2014 is 4130 points & if we add up the 3150 points for Wimbledon seedings points, we reach 7280 points.

 

 

even, if Federer reaches the semi-finals of Roland Garros, 2014, he can reach 5485 points & if we add up the 1765 special points for Wimbledon seedings, we will reach 7250 points, which is still less than Murray's starting points.

 

 

Thus, Murray is more or less assured the #3 seeding for Wimbledon, 2014 unless Federer reaches the final (provided Murray loses before the semis) or Federer doesn't win the Roland Garros title.

 

 

 

Now, this leaves us with the last important seeding --- #4 : Will Federer manage to get #4 seeding for Wimbledon, 2014 or will Berdych snatch #4 seeding for Wimbledon, 2014

 

 

 

If we presume, Tomas Berdych reaches the finals of Roland Garros, 2014, he will reach 5530 points & if we add up 483 special Wimbledon seeding points, we reach 6013 points.

 

 

While, Federer after reaching 2nd Round of Roland Garros, 2014 is on 4810 points & adding 1765 special Wimbledon seeding points is on 6575 points.

 

 

 

Now, in the hypothetical situation of Berdych winning Roland Garros, 2014, Berdych will reach 6813 points for Wimbledon seedings.

 

 

Thus, if Federer reaches the QF of Roland Garros, 2014, he will get to 5125 points & adding 1725 points, he will get to 6990 points.

 

 

Thus, if Berdych doesn't win Roland Garros title, Roger Federer is already assured to get #4 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014

 

 

 

& if Berdych wins the Roland Garros title, Roger Federer needs to reach just the QF to ensure his #4 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014.

 

 

post-2-0-86921500-1341089637.jpg

 

 

The 7 time champion Roger Federer (in picture) is almost assured to get #4 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014

 

 

 

Scroll down for #5 to #8 seedings....


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#5 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 04:44 AM

The next interesting battle is #5 for #6 (though, not as important as #3 & #4) :

 

 

 

Stan Wawrinka after losing out in R1 of Roland Garros, 2014 is on 5480 points & if we add up 167 Wimbledon seedings points, we get to 5647 points.

 

 

While, Berdych is on 4375 points after reaching R2 of RG, 2014 & if we add up 483 points, we get to 4858 points.

 

 

Thus, if Berdych doesn't reach the finals of Roland Garros, 2014, Wawrinka is assured of #5 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014.

 

 

Berdych is assured of #6 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014 & if he reaches the finals of RG, he will get #5 seeding & if he wins the RG title, he will get #4 seeding at Wimbledon provided Federer loses before the QF stage at Roland Garros, 2014.

 

 

 

While, David Ferrer is almost assured of #7 seeding & Milos Raonic is almost ensured of becoming the first guy born in 1990's to get a top-8 seeding at Wimbledon.

 

 

 

Feel free to post your doubts, but, please take the trouble of reading the trouble of reading the full post.


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#6 Guest_john_*

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 06:23 AM

Fantastic summary, thanks very much.

 

Just a question on Halle, Queens, and Hertogenbosch 2013 and 2014.

 

Do they both count for the '100% of points in the past 12 months on grass bit? Wouldn't that be more than the last 365 days as it were?

 

Thanks.



#7 Vibhuism

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 01:55 PM

Fantastic summary, thanks very much.

 

Just a question on Halle, Queens, and Hertogenbosch 2013 and 2014.

 

Do they both count for the '100% of points in the past 12 months on grass bit? Wouldn't that be more than the last 365 days as it were?

 

Thanks.

 

 

Good question....

 

 

See, Wimbledon seedings will be announced by Tuesday (approx) i.e. 17-June-2014.

 

Halle/Queens/ Hertogenbosch will end on 15-June-2014.

 

 

So, in the points calculations for Wimby seedings, normally the 2014 result of Halle/Queens/Hertogenbosch will be counted.....

 

 

In my points calculations sheet, I have presumed that the 2013 result of Halle/Queens/Hertogenbosch will be repeated, even if we ignore those points, then also, there won't be an impact on the seedings, as you can see from the above exhaustive calculations....


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#8 Roger@Sw19

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 09:10 PM

I think even the Olympics points will be counted for this years seedings...As it was played in Grass .



#9 Vibhuism

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Posted 28 May 2014 - 02:04 AM

I think even the Olympics points will be counted for this years seedings...As it was played in Grass .

 

Olympics was in 2012, only 1 best result of 2012 can be counted in the seedings. None of these top 8 gained more points at Wimbledon, then what they got at Wimbledon in 2012.

 

 

If you see Tomas Berdych's points, u will notice that I added points that he got in Halle in 2012 as he lost in the 1st round of Wimbledon, 2012 & also, London Olympics, 2012.

 

 

 

If you have a look at my seedings post for Wimbledon 2013, you will find that I had factored in London Olympics 2012 points for seedings...

 

 

Catch that last year's post right here.


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#10 Niraperky

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Posted 28 May 2014 - 02:47 AM

Read the whole above summary on Wimbledon seedings and points. Admirable! Needless to say, that I shall jot the figures down and calculate. I am beginning to get the jist of it.
Very many thanks and amazing how you keep up with it all.
Best of luck to the players, especially Roger.

#11 Vibhuism

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 02:06 AM

Update: Now, that Roger Federer has reached the 3rd round, he is just 2 wins away from 100% securing the #4 seeding for Wimbledon, 2014.

 

 

& if Tomas Berdych doesn't win the Roland Garros title, Federer is already assured to be the #4 seed for Wimbledon...


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#12 Vibhuism

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Posted 29 May 2014 - 04:02 PM

Update: Now that Stan Wawrinka has taken the wildcard for Queen's, it won't have any impact as its an ATP-250 tournament. Stan Wawrinka will at best be #5 seed for Wimbledon, 2014, unless Berdych doesn't reach Roland Garros, 2014 finals...


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#13 Prithvi

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Posted 30 May 2014 - 10:54 AM

Well, if the seedings are 1.Djokovic, 2.Nadal, 3.Murray and 4.Federer, Then if the draws go as per RG14 then it would be Djokovic vs Murray and Federer vs Nadal in the Semi FInals rite?



#14 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 03:08 AM

Well, if the seedings are 1.Djokovic, 2.Nadal, 3.Murray and 4.Federer, Then if the draws go as per RG14 then it would be Djokovic vs Murray and Federer vs Nadal in the Semi FInals rite?

 

No, the semi-final draw will be decided at the time of the draw.... It can be Rafa vs Federer or Rafa vs Murray, will get decided at the time of the draw...


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#15 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 03:13 AM

Update: After Federer's defeat to Gulbis, its now 100% sure that Andy Murray will be the #3 seed at Wimbledon, 2014.

 

 

 

If Tomas Berdych wins the Roland Garros title, Berdych will get the #4 seeding, else, Roger Federer will the #4 seed (in all other scenarios)....

 

 

 

If Tomas Berdych reaches the finals of Roland Garros, then Stan Wawrinka will get #6 seeding, else, he is assured to be the #5 seeding....


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#16 Guest_Terry wirhebrink_*

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 09:44 PM

I enjoyed the information. No matter what the outcome I am so happy to see these great players. Especially Roger Federer

#17 Guest_vinurame_*

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 10:28 PM

Wait is there a huge difference between being being seeded 4 and not 3? Since Roger is seeded 4, will that mean there will be a fedal semi-final? Oh and guys let's not speak bad about Rafa either, cuz honesstly u think we're jinxing Roger that way:)lets not say anything bad of any player!

#18 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 June 2014 - 11:26 PM

Many people on twitter & here asked me, is there any difference in being seeded #3 & #4 at Wimbledon....

 

 

 The answer is no. There isn't any difference. Wimbledon's draw happens just like all other grand slams draw. #1 can either get #3 or #4 in his semi-final draw....


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#19 Vibhuism

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 12:15 AM

Milos Raonic will be the 1st ever guy born in 1990's to get Top8 seeding at Wimbledon if Gulbis doesn't win the Roland Garros title....


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#20 Vibhuism

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Posted 03 June 2014 - 04:34 AM

Also, the other 2 notable changes in the seedings vis-a-vis rankings :

 

 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will drop out of Top-16 post Roland Garros, 2014, but because of being SF in 2013 & 2012, he will get *close to* 13th seeding at Wimbledon, 2014.

 

 

Similarly, Jerzy Janowicz is likely to get #16 seeding at Wimbledon, 2014.


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