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Will Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer end 2014 as year-end ATP World No. 1?

novak djokovic roger federer year end #1 2014 year end #1

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#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 November 2014 - 02:09 AM

Here we are in to the final week of 2014 Tennis calendar. What a hectic year its been. From a ranking point of view, I need to give a special mention to Roger Federer. Last year, he was struggling to book his spot in the World Tour Finals & now a year later, with only a week left in the calendar, he still is in the race to end 2014 as year-end #1.

 

Though, after Federer's loss in the Quarter-final of Bercy, number-1 ranking is clearly in Djokovic's hands. 

 

 

DSC_0108.JPG

 

Federer & Djokovic (in picture) at Dubai Duty Free Tennis championship. (Pic taken by me)

 

 

As per the rankings points announced by ATP on 27th October, 2014 :

 

 

Novak Djokovic: 11,510 pts

 

Roger Federer: 9,280 points

 

 

Points to Defend till the end of the 2014

 

Djokovic has to defend 1000 points at Bercy, 1500 points at World Tour Finals & 150 points that he won by winning both his Davis Cup Final singles matches will get erased on 23rd November, 2014. Thus, a total of 2650 points.

 

 

While, Federer had to defend 360 points at Bercy and 400 points at World Tour Finals, 2014. Thus, a total of 760 points.

 

 

 

Effective points before the start of Bercy Masters

 

 

Thus, effectively before the start of Bercy, this is how the ranking points of both these looked like:-

 

 

Novak Djokovic: 8860 points

 

Roger Federer:   8520 points

 

 

 

For further analysis of #1 ranking scenario post Bercy Masters, World Tour Finals & Davis Cup finals, scroll down to the following posts.


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#2 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 November 2014 - 08:11 PM

Points Analysis post Bercy Masters

 

 

For a quick look at how many points are at stake at Bercy Masters, 2014, click here.

 

 

Thus, after reaching Quarter-finals of Bercy, Federer will get 180 points.

 

 

While, Djokovic after reaching finals of Bercy is assured 600 points & if he wins the final, will get 1000 points.

 

 

Thus, after Bercy Masters, Roger Federer will be on 8700 points while Novak Djokovic if he wins the Bercy Masters title will be on 9860 points & if he loses the Bercy final, will be on 9460 points.

 

 

After Bercy Masters, 2014, we will be left with World Tour Finals & Davis Cup finals (which Roger Federer will be playing).

 

 

 

World Tour Finals

 

 

For a detailed read on how many ATP points are at stake during World Tour Finals, 2014, click here.

 

 

Davis Cup Finals

 

 

& For a detailed read on how many maximum points can Roger Federer gain if he wins both his singles matches at Davis Cup final & Team SUI wins the Davis Cup, click here.

 

 

 

Thus, the maximum points that Roger Federer can gain if he wins all the five matches at World Tour Finals is 1500 points & if he wins both his singles matches at Davis Cup Finals & Team Switzerland wins Davis Cup finals is 225 points.

 

 

Thus, Federer can gain a maximum of 1725 points from here & that too, if Team Switzerland wins Davis Cup & Federer wins both his live singles matches.

 

 

At best, Roger Federer can get to 10,425 (8700 which he is at present as explained in the first post above & 1725 points).

 

 

Scroll down for detailed scenario as to how Djokovic & Federer can ensure year-end #1.


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#3 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 November 2014 - 08:50 PM

Scenarios:

 

 

 

(i) Novak Djokovic wins Bercy Masters finals : 9860 points

 

 

He will need a maximum of  565 points to 100% ensure his year-end ranking.

 

 

 

Novak Djokovic will confirm his 2014 year-end #1, if :

 

 

a) he wins all three round robin matches at World Tour Finals (will get 600 points) or

 

b ) if he wins a round robin match & (provided he qualifies) wins the semi-finals of WTF (600 points)

 

 

(ii) if Novak Djokovic doesn't win Bercy Masters finals : 9460 points

 

 

He will need a maximum of  965 points to 100% ensure his year-end ranking.

 

 

Novak Djokovic will confirm his 2014 year-end #1, if :

 

 

a) he wins two round robin matches, semi-final & finals World Tour Finals (& will get 1300 points) or

 

b ) if he wins a round robin match & provided he qualifies, wins the semi-finals & finals of WTF (1100 points)

 

 

 

iii) If Novak Djokovic wins just one match at World Tour Finals & Roger Federer doesn't win World Tour Finals final match, then also, Novak Djokovic will confirm his 2014 year-end #1.


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#4 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 November 2014 - 08:57 PM

Scenarios where in Roger Federer can end 2014 as year-end #1: (now that Djokovic has won Bercy Masters title) ----

 

 

(i) What Roger Federer needs to do

 

Roger Federer will need to win all 5 matches at World Tour Finals & win both lives singles matches at Davis Cup final & also, ensure, Team Switzerland wins Davis Cup final.

 

 

What Roger Federer will need to happen

 

 

Besides this, Roger Federer needs to hope that Novak Djokovic doesn't win more than two matches in the round-robin stage.

 

 

 

 

(ii) What Roger Federer needs to do

 

 

If Roger Federer wins the World Tour Finals undefeated, he will get to 10200 & if he wins just one Davis Cup final match, he will get to 10275 points.

 

 

What Roger Federer will need to happen

 

 

Djokovic shouldn't win more than more than 2 matches in the round robin stage. That way, he will get to 10,200 points.

 

 

 

(iii) What Roger Federer needs to do

 

 

If Roger Federer wins the World Tour Finals after losing just one round robin match, he will get to 10000 & if he wins just one Davis Cup final match, he will get to 10075 points.

 

 

What Roger Federer will need to happen

 

 

Djokovic shouldn't win more than more than one matches in the round robin stage. That way, he will get to 10,060 points.

 

 

 

 

So, as you can see, year-end No. 1 ranking is in Djokovic's hands now.

 

 

Feel free to post your questions and I will try to answer you as soon as possible or follow me on the social networking sites as mentioned in my signature below.


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#5 Guest_Sanele Mbatha_*

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Posted 02 November 2014 - 10:16 PM

Thanks for clarification Vibhu,you are really good at what you are doing,you are the best!



#6 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 November 2014 - 11:44 PM

Just a few clarifications because a lot of people seem to be confused:-

 

 

 

 

(i) Novak Djokovic's 150 points from Davis Cup 2013 finals will come off on 23rd November, 2014, immediately after Davis Cup Finals 2014.

 

 

(ii) In the year-end ranking scenarios, the points of Davis Cup finals are included, for a detailed read on it, click here.


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#7 tennispompom

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Posted 03 November 2014 - 02:30 AM

Excellent post Vibhu, always so clear and logical. Thank you.



#8 victor

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Posted 03 November 2014 - 04:03 AM

Under your third scenario For Novak - If Novak doesn't win a match at WTF and Roger doesn't win WTF finals, then also Novak will confirm his 2014 yearend No. 1.

 

I believe under this scenario, if Roger gets his 225 points from DC he can still become yearend  No1. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks.



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Posted 03 November 2014 - 05:22 AM

First of all I would like to thank Vibhu for his continuous updates and explanations, great work which has taught me a lot about the ranking system.

 

 

I would like to point out that, according to my calculations (please correct me if I am wrong), Roger does not have to win all his Round Robin matches in order to become the year end number one, and he also does not have to win two live rubbers in the Davis Cup and win the tie with his team.

 

 

The following would have to take place:

 

- He wins the tournament without getting defeated (it would bring him to 10200 points) and Djokovic wins at most two of his RR matches and does not reach the final (if he wins two RR matches this would bring him to 10260 points). In this case Roger has to win "only" one rubber in the Davis Cup to get to 10275 points and surpass Djokovic;

 

-He wins the tournament with one loss at the RR stage (it would bring him to 10000 points) and Djokovic wins at most one of his RR matches (it would bring him to 10060 points). In this case Roger again has to win "just" the one rubber in the Davis Cup to get to 10075 points and surpass Djokovic.

 

I am sorry if I have made a mistake in my calculations, but if I am not mistaken he could surpass Djokovic even if he loses one RR match, the odds would get smaller though.

 

Exciting weeks are ahead. Let's keep our fingers crossed.



#10 Vibhuism

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Posted 03 November 2014 - 06:15 PM

Under your third scenario For Novak - If Novak doesn't win a match at WTF and Roger doesn't win WTF finals, then also Novak will confirm his 2014 yearend No. 1.

 

I believe under this scenario, if Roger gets his 225 points from DC he can still become yearend  No1. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks.

 

 

Yes, Victor, you are right, I have corrected in my above post, thanks for pointing out, really appeciated :)...

 

First of all I would like to thank Vibhu for his continuous updates and explanations, great work which has taught me a lot about the ranking system.

 

 

I would like to point out that, according to my calculations (please correct me if I am wrong), Roger does not have to win all his Round Robin matches in order to become the year end number one, and he also does not have to win two live rubbers in the Davis Cup and win the tie with his team.

 

 

The following would have to take place:

 

- He wins the tournament without getting defeated (it would bring him to 10200 points) and Djokovic wins at most two of his RR matches and does not reach the final (if he wins two RR matches this would bring him to 10260 points). In this case Roger has to win "only" one rubber in the Davis Cup to get to 10275 points and surpass Djokovic;

 

-He wins the tournament with one loss at the RR stage (it would bring him to 10000 points) and Djokovic wins at most one of his RR matches (it would bring him to 10060 points). In this case Roger again has to win "just" the one rubber in the Davis Cup to get to 10075 points and surpass Djokovic.

 

I am sorry if I have made a mistake in my calculations, but if I am not mistaken he could surpass Djokovic even if he loses one RR match, the odds would get smaller though.

 

Exciting weeks are ahead. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

 

 

Thanks, all the scenarios that you posted are 100% correct and I have addedd those to my above posts. Look forward to hear more from you :)...


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#11 Vibhuism

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Posted 03 November 2014 - 09:24 PM

As the draw is now out, if Djokovic beats Wawrinka, Berdych and Cilic, he will secure 2014 year-end #1 before semi-finals..

 

 

 

For #1 to be in Federer's hands, he will need to win all three group matches & hope, Djokovic is #2 in his group & that way, Federer gets the chance to meet Djokovic in the semi-finals...


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#12 Guest_Achim_*

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Posted 03 November 2014 - 09:52 PM

Question: Couldn't Djokovic play a Challenger event during the week of the davis cup final?

If Federer earns 1500 points in London and Djokovic just 400, then Djokovic could make 80 or 90 points by winning one of the challenger events, which would mean that Federer has to win both rubbers.

I'm quite sure that Djokovic wouldn't do that, but is he allowed to do it??



#13 Vibhuism

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 02:35 AM

Question: Couldn't Djokovic play a Challenger event during the week of the davis cup final?

If Federer earns 1500 points in London and Djokovic just 400, then Djokovic could make 80 or 90 points by winning one of the challenger events, which would mean that Federer has to win both rubbers.

I'm quite sure that Djokovic wouldn't do that, but is he allowed to do it??

 

 

You really made me work over-time with this tough question :)......

 

The answer to your question is yes.......

 

 

I will explain the reason as well --->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

if you noticed above in my posts, as I clearly explained, the Tennis calendar of 2014 ends on 16th November, 2014. In the final week (i.e. Davis Cup final week), the following four challengers will be held -----

 

 

LIMA, Peru (CL) $50,000+H
MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay (CL) 50
ANDRIA, Italy (IS) €35,000+H
TOYOTA, Japan (IS) $40,000+H

 

 

So, yes, these Top-8 players can get a wild-card in to any of these challengers if they want & get the required points. But, attention here should be laid out on the fact that a committed player (Top-30) can add only points from 4 majors, 8 mandatory ATP-1000 masters & 6 other tournaments (including Monte Carlo, ATP-500, ATP-250, DAVIS Cup, Challengers, only if he completes the mandatory requirement of playing in 4 ATP-500 tourney, with one of those being after US Open)....

 

 

Hope, you got the answer to your question :)...

 

 

 

& I gotta say, your question was the qtn of the year for me & I also tweeted this ----

 

 

 


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#14 Vibhuism

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 11:49 PM

Two common mistakes that I am noticing people on social networking sites are making:

 

 

(i) To sensationalize the ranking scenarios, people are reporting or call it tweeting that Federer might have to lose the Davis Cup doubles match to have a chance of getting to  #1 rank.

 

 

That is completely wrong information. People spreading this, don't have an idea that Djokovic's 150 points from Davis Cup 2013 finals will come off after World Tour Finals, 2014....

 

 

The Race to London ranking is only up to the end of Bercy Masters and now, we have just one ranking & points from davis Cup finals points will come off after Davis Cup 2014 final....

 

 

(ii) Second set of confused people - are not aware that World Tour Finals 2013 points came off on 3rd November, 2014 along with the Bercy Masters 2013 points.  This happens every year. As ATP had clarified to me in 2012 (which you can read here), Points from WTF always come off along with Bercy Masters points...

 

 

Hope, this clarifies all doubts....

 

 

For comprehensive coverage on #1 ranking scenarios, click here.


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#15 Guest_Ianesq_*

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Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:41 AM

Correct me if my math  and reading is wrong.  But the total points of Federer before Bercy and after subtracting the points that he has to defend should be 8760 points (9520-360-400 = 8760) and not  8520.

Here we are in to the final week of 2014 Tennis calendar. What a hectic year its been. From a ranking point of view, I need to give a special mention to Roger Federer. Last year, he was struggling to book his spot in the World Tour Finals & now a year later, with only a week left in the calendar, he still is in the race to end 2014 as year-end #1.

 

Though, after Federer's loss in the Quarter-final of Bercy, number-1 ranking is clearly in Djokovic's hands. 

 

 

DSC_0108.JPG

 

Federer & Djokovic (in picture) at Dubai Duty Free Tennis championship. (Pic taken by me)

 

 

As per the rankings points announced by ATP on 27th October, 2014 :

 

 

Novak Djokovic: 11,510 pts

 

Roger Federer: 9,280 points

 

 

Points to Defend till the end of the 2014

 

Djokovic has to defend 1000 points at Bercy, 1500 points at World Tour Finals & 150 points that he won by winning both his Davis Cup Final singles matches will get erased on 16th November, 2014. Thus, a total of 2650 points.

 

 

While, Federer had to defend 360 points at Bercy and 400 points at World Tour Finals, 2014. Thus, a total of 760 points.

 

 

 

Effective points before the start of Bercy Masters

 

 

Thus, effectively before the start of Bercy, this is how the ranking points of both these looked like:-

 

 

Novak Djokovic: 8860 points

 

Roger Federer:   8520 points

 

 

 

For further analysis of #1 ranking scenario post Bercy Masters, World Tour Finals & Davis Cup finals, scroll down to the following posts.



#16 Vibhuism

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Posted 06 November 2014 - 12:38 AM

Correct me if my math  and reading is wrong.  But the total points of Federer before Bercy and after subtracting the points that he has to defend should be 8760 points (9520-360-400 = 8760) and not  8520.

 

 

It was actually 9280 and not 9520 before the start of Bercy Masters. Was a typo, thanks for bringing that to my notice.


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#17 victor

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Posted 09 November 2014 - 06:43 AM

Hi Vibhu:

 

Thanks for all your input. It is so helpful. I have a few clarifications which I'll outline below and would appreciate your feedback.

 

You had written above that Novak's DC points will drop off the rankings on November 16 after the conclusion of the WTF.

However, I read elsewhere on your blog where the DC points from 2012 dropped off and the DC points from 2013

added simultaneously after the conclusion of the DC in 2013.

 

You had also written that the DC points from DC finals for 2014 will get included in the yearend rankings for 2014 and will also

carry forward to the Race to London points for 2015. In this regard, when will the rolling 52 weeks ranking points and the Race to London ranking points be separately shown since they've both become equal after the Bercy Masters. I am wondering if the DC

points from 2014 will get included in the 52 weeks rolling ranking points as opposed to the Race to London ranking points since

the latter will only include all points earned in 2015 as per your explanation in an earlier post.

 

Thanks once again.



#18 Vibhuism

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Posted 10 November 2014 - 05:26 AM

Hi Vibhu:

 

Thanks for all your input. It is so helpful. I have a few clarifications which I'll outline below and would appreciate your feedback.

 

You had written above that Novak's DC points will drop off the rankings on November 16 after the conclusion of the WTF.

However, I read elsewhere on your blog where the DC points from 2012 dropped off and the DC points from 2013

added simultaneously after the conclusion of the DC in 2013.

 

You had also written that the DC points from DC finals for 2014 will get included in the yearend rankings for 2014 and will also

carry forward to the Race to London points for 2015. In this regard, when will the rolling 52 weeks ranking points and the Race to London ranking points be separately shown since they've both become equal after the Bercy Masters. I am wondering if the DC

points from 2014 will get included in the 52 weeks rolling ranking points as opposed to the Race to London ranking points since

the latter will only include all points earned in 2015 as per your explanation in an earlier post.

 

Thanks once again.

 

 

(i) Yes, u r right, Davis Cup 2013 final points will come off after Davis Cup 2014 finals, was a mistake above, corrected now.

 

 (ii) The Race to London 2015 rankings will start flashing after Davis Cup 2015 finals...

 

 (iii) Yes, Davis Cup 2014 finals points will get added in Normal 52 weeks rankings and race to london 2015 rankings. That's the only way by which these two can match after Bercy Masters.

 

 

Feel free to post other questions (preferably, in question serial number to make it easier for me). I am posting this at 5:30 am, hope, I haven't missed any of the qtns :)..


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#19 Wendy_redRobin

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Posted 11 November 2014 - 03:36 AM

Roger Federer talks of his 2014 season and his thoughts re regaining the World No1 ranking in a press conference at the ATP World Tour Finals


 2014Wimbledonavatar-reducedampedited_zps .... peRFection ~ it's nice to be important, but it's more important to be nice


#20 Guest_Gilles_*

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Posted 12 November 2014 - 09:24 PM

Thank you for all the analysis here.

 

I have one question: why don't you make your calculations based on the Race? At this stage of the year when there are only two tournaments remaining at the most, it is much simpler: we just have to add points to the current race ranking to make forecasts. It avoids taking into account the points to defend and doing subtractions...





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