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Can Roger Federer regain No.2 ATP Ranking from Rafael Nadal after ITALIAN Open, 2012

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18 replies to this topic

#1 Vibhuism

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 10:43 PM

For the past one month, we have been getting a great discussion on how can Roger Federer regain No. 2 ATP ranking from Rafael Nadal before French Open, 2012.



Ok, now, that Roger Federer has regained No. 2 ranking after Madrid Open, I made a completely new post on what Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal need to do to retain/regain no. 2 ranking after Italian Open, 2012 ::



http://www.rogerfede...lian-open-2012/








These are the ATP points as last declared on April 30th, 2012



Posted Image



So, now, as you can see after the triumph of Rafael Nadal at Barcelona Open, 2012, still the point difference between these two legends is 1290 points.

Since Roger Federer has to retain 360 points at Madrid Open by virtue of being semi-finalist in 2011 & 45 points at Rome (Italian Open) as he lost in 3rd Round in Italian Open, 2011.


While Rafael Nadal has to retain 1200 points more as he was the finalist at both Madrid Open & Italian open in 2012.


Now, these are these are the permutations & combination that can make Roger Federer regain no. 2 ATP Ranking immediately after the Italian Open, 2012 :::::



i) RF needs to reach the finals of both Madrid Open & Italian Open to have any mathematical chance of reaching #2.


ii) Roger needs to win at least one of these two ATP 1000 masters & yes,as I explained above, reaching finals in both is very crucial.

(Thou, RF will gain about 960 points if he wins the Italian Open. If he wins Madrid Open, he gains 640 points more to his overall tally of points).


iii) If Roger Federer only manages to win only 1 out of these two & of course, reaches Final of the other, then for Roger Federer to reach no.2, Rafael Nadal needs to lose in at least one of the two semi finals & the final of other. In a nutshell, I mean to say, if Rafa wins any one of these two, then Roger will have no chance of reaching no.2 before Roland Garros, 2012.


That way if RF wins Madrid open, 2012, Roger Federer will gain 640 points if he wins Madrid Open &

RF reaches final of Italian Open, 2012, RF will gain 560 points more for reaching Italian Open 2012 final, which means an increment of 1200 points.


If Rafael Nadal loses in one of these semi finals, that will mean, he will lose out 240 points.

Thus, Roger will have a difference of 1440 points & thus will be ahead by 150 points from Rafael Nadal after Italian Open, 2012.

So, the only 100% sure condition in which Roger Federer regains No. 2 ATP ranking is when he wins both of Madrid Open & Italian open 2012, as he will gain 1600 points, even if Rafael Nadal reaches final of both.


Just in case, Roger Federer reaches final of both & loses both finals & Rafael Nadal loses in the semi final of both, in that cases Roger Federer will gain 800 points while Rafa will lose about 480 points,


In that case, Rafael Nadal will still be ahead by 10 points after Italian Open, 2012.

So, as you can see this battle for No. 2 is heating up & too bad for me as I will be missing out both Madrid & Rome because of my travel plans.


So, guys do keep me posted :-)...


Cheers

Vibhu








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#2 V.K. Batra

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 01:02 PM

another interesting thing to add to this :

If Roger Federer reaches finals of both

and Rafael Nadal loses in semi of one & QF of other, then Roger Federer will regain no. 2 ATP Rankings.

#3 V.K. Batra

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 01:04 PM

But, yes, even in all my calculation sheets, for roger's best chance to reach no. 2 is to reach finals of both these & yes, it will be a tough job. Lets see, what happens. Good luck :).

#4 sausan

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 06:08 PM

I was always wondering about how the distribution of points in tennis
Thanks for your explanation.
Of course we wish the best for Federer and to reach no. 2.... i want to see him ranked no.1 also

When life gives you a hundred reasons to cry, show life that you have a Roger Federer to smile.

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#5 @batravk786

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 05:06 PM

The purpose of this entire discussion is :


If Roger Federer can get back to no. 2 in ATP rankings,

then possibly, the french open semi finals will be between Novak Djokovic & Rafael Nadal.


That surely, makes it wee bit easier for Roger to win at Roland Garros, 2012... Doesnt it?


Please have your say here........ Thanks ----------

#6 Guest_omnia kamel_*

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 05:47 PM

HOPE SO

#7 sausan

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 07:25 PM

aha yes yes we are wish to see this moment

When life gives you a hundred reasons to cry, show life that you have a Roger Federer to smile.

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#8 Kishore Sharma

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 02:23 PM

Yes of course, believe in Federer.. :)

God I love Roger Federer, Thank you so much for giving us such a genius :).

 

 

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#9 Inez

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 12:23 AM

excellent discussion. i liked the explanation, this is like classroom lectures on tennis..
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#10 Guest_ajitabh baruah_*

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 05:04 PM

I really hope Roger gets to no.2 before RG as that would meen a potential clash between Rafa and Nole. peRFect for roger!!!

#11 Vibhu batra

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 11:06 PM

Now that Rafael Nadal lost out today in the 3rd round,


That means he will lose out 555 points .....


(he was 2011 finalist, so had 600 points to defend, will get only 45 points by virtue of being a 3rd round loser in Madrid Open 2012).



As you can read from above mentioned discussion, Roger Federer trails by 1095 points in the latest ranking points...


Roger Federer has to defend 360 points, as he was losing semi finalist in Madrid Open, 2011.



So, if Roger Federer wins Madrid Open 2012, that would mean he will be ahead by 100 points from Rafa Nadal & this will regain No. 2 ranking this Sunday night.



& If Roger Federer loses the final, that would mean Rafa Nadal will still be ahead by 300 points.



As I wrote above, the race for No. 2 is really heating up, isn't it??



& I will end up with this if & buts discussion with a very old idiom,


"If ifs & buts were pots & pans, there would be no tinkers."



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#12 sausan

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 02:10 AM

oh my god i'm waiting for this moment i hope that
I hope Fderer to reach the final & win with his tough draw
god please him

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#13 Guest_BackhandFlick_*

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 02:45 AM

A 2nd french open title? This will no doubt cemet his legacy as the GOAT.

#14 Guest_MasterYster_*

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 03:32 AM

Federer will have a very good chance if he wins madrid and his odds are looking very good. Djokovic isn't as good on the courts and Nadal is out, effectively eliminating his real competition.

With the madrid points subtracted from the players during the tournament, the rankings look like this
http://www.atpworldt...gs/Singles.aspx

Rafa - 9615
Federer - 8520

Since Nadal went out in the 3rd round, he will make a gross gain of 180 points (3rd round), making his new score
Rafa - 9815
If federer manages to get by djokovic and win the tournament (1000), his score will be
Federer - 9520


The following scenarios entail what he would need at rome

Scenario 1:
Therefore when Federer goes to Rome, winning Rome would automatically give him a score of (Winning is +1000, but he had 90 points from last year so a net gain of 910)
Federer - 10430
while Nadal at best would not gain any points, since he was a finalist last year, giving him
Rafa - 9815

Scenario 2
Federer makes the finals and loses to someone other than Nadal. Federer would gain 510 (600 for finalist but 90 points from last year). Giving him
Federer - 10030
While Nadal would lose at the semis or worse. So at best he makes the semis or net loses 240 giving him
9575

Scenario 3
Federer makes the semifinals, giving him a net gain of 270
Federer - 9790
And then Nadal would have to lose in the semifinals or before.

Basically the scenarios are limitless. But Roger's chances will be VERY GOOD if he wins madrid, which I think he will. If Federer goes in seeded 2 at the French and Rafa and Djoker are on the same side of the draw, Roger will have the best chance since 2009 to win the French Open

#15 Guest_MasterYster_*

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 03:33 AM

Federer will have a very good chance if he wins madrid and his odds are looking very good. Djokovic isn't as good on the courts and Nadal is out, effectively eliminating his real competition.

With the madrid points subtracted from the players during the tournament, the rankings look like this
http://www.atpworldt...gs/Singles.aspx

Rafa - 9615
Federer - 8520

Since Nadal went out in the 3rd round, he will make a gross gain of 180 points (3rd round), making his new score
Rafa - 9815
If federer manages to get by djokovic and win the tournament (1000), his score will be
Federer - 9520


The following scenarios entail what he would need at rome

Scenario 1:
Therefore when Federer goes to Rome, winning Rome would automatically give him a score of (Winning is +1000, but he had 90 points from last year so a net gain of 910)
Federer - 10430
while Nadal at best would not gain any points, since he was a finalist last year, giving him
Rafa - 9815

Scenario 2
Federer makes the finals and loses to someone other than Nadal. Federer would gain 510 (600 for finalist but 90 points from last year). Giving him
Federer - 10030
While Nadal would lose at the semis or worse. So at best he makes the semis or net loses 240 giving him
9575

Scenario 3
Federer makes the semifinals, giving him a net gain of 270
Federer - 9790
And then Nadal would have to lose in the semifinals or before.

Basically the scenarios are limitless. But Roger's chances will be VERY GOOD if he wins madrid, which I think he will. If Federer goes in seeded 2 at the French and Rafa and Djoker are on the same side of the draw, Roger will have the best chance since 2009 to win the French Open

#16 mohit

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 08:52 AM

great discussion.

#17 V.K. Batra

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 06:13 PM

Federer will have a very good chance if he wins madrid and his odds are looking very good. Djokovic isn't as good on the courts and Nadal is out, effectively eliminating his real competition.

With the madrid points subtracted from the players during the tournament, the rankings look like this
http://www.atpworldt...gs/Singles.aspx

Rafa - 9615
Federer - 8520

Since Nadal went out in the 3rd round, he will make a gross gain of 180 points (3rd round), making his new score
Rafa - 9815
If federer manages to get by djokovic and win the tournament (1000), his score will be
Federer - 9520


The following scenarios entail what he would need at rome

Scenario 1:
Therefore when Federer goes to Rome, winning Rome would automatically give him a score of (Winning is +1000, but he had 90 points from last year so a net gain of 910)
Federer - 10430
while Nadal at best would not gain any points, since he was a finalist last year, giving him
Rafa - 9815

Scenario 2
Federer makes the finals and loses to someone other than Nadal. Federer would gain 510 (600 for finalist but 90 points from last year). Giving him
Federer - 10030
While Nadal would lose at the semis or worse. So at best he makes the semis or net loses 240 giving him
9575

Scenario 3
Federer makes the semifinals, giving him a net gain of 270
Federer - 9790
And then Nadal would have to lose in the semifinals or before.

Basically the scenarios are limitless. But Roger's chances will be VERY GOOD if he wins madrid, which I think he will. If Federer goes in seeded 2 at the French and Rafa and Djoker are on the same side of the draw, Roger will have the best chance since 2009 to win the French Open



many thanks for yr excellent views. Loved reading your post. I request you to become a member of our forum which is world's one of the fastest ever growing forums (as per alexa rankings)....


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#18 V.K. Batra

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Posted 12 May 2012 - 05:38 PM

Just now updated the points that will be announced on 13th May, 2012 if Roger Federer wins the Mutua Madrid Open, 2012. Please see this post --



http://www.rogerfede...drid-open-2012/

#19 Vibhu batra

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 08:23 PM

These are the ATP Ranking Scenarios post French Open 2012 ----



http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/345-atp-ranking-scenarios-post-french-open-2012/

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