Most Important : Please be informed that I am writing this post about 12 hours prior to the start of French Open, 2012 (will keep updating latest info in the follow up comments, so keep reading).
Here is how, the ranking points looked like of the top eight players immediately before the start of French Open, 2012 :::
Since, Rafael Nadal was winner of 2011 French Open, so, he stands to lose 2000 points from his 2011 points & gain the points that he will garner during French Open, 2012.
So, here are the different scenarios :
i) If Rafael Nadal loses the Semi-final of French Open, 2012,
then he loses 2000 points of 2011 & gains 720 points of 2012.
Thus a net loss of 1280 points, in that case, Roger Federer will reach No. 2 in the rankings to be declared on 10th June, 2012.
ii) If Rafael Nadal loses the final of French Open, 2012,
then he loses 2000 points of 2011 & gains 1200 points of 2012, thus a net loss of 800 points.
Thus, in this case, if Roger Federer beats Rafael nadal in the finals, Roger Federer will reach No. 2 in the rankings to be declared on 10th June, 2012.
But, if Roger Federer loses in the semi-finals of French Open, 2012, then of course, he will remain No. 3.
iii) If Rafael Nadal wins the final of French Open, 2012,
then he loses 2000 points of 2011 & gains 2000 points of 2012.
So, net net, no gain or loss. In this case, Rafael Nadal will remain No. 2 even, if he beats Novak Djokovic in the finals.
Roger Federer will climb up to Number. 2 in ATP Rankings if Rafael Nadal loses in the final to Novak Djokovic as Rafa will lose 800 points by virtue of losing in the finals.
Thus, in that case, Roger Federer will be ahead by 50 points from Rafa Nadal & thus, most likely will get No. 2 seeding @ Wimbledon 2012.
