20 replies to this topic

[Vibhu batra]

This article of mine is in continuation from my previous two articles in which I explained what according to me are the 10 reasons why Roger Federer will win Wimbledon 2012 & 5 things that Roger Federer needs to do to beat Djokovic.



So, the next big question every one seems to be debating, will Roger Federer create H17tory or Andy Murray create H76tory.







As enough has been said about this might be 17th grand slam title for Roger Federer & Andy Murray being the first Brit in 76 years, I won't mention any thing about those well known facts .


I am writing this article just 15 hours before the Wimbledon 2012 final begins at 2 pm BST at Centre court (The Wimbledon 2012 final match start timing as always is 2 pm BST).


Another interesting debate that's currently going on between Roger Federer & Andy Murray fans.


RF fans are taking comfort from the fact that he had those 2 easy Finals vs Andy Murray ( the final of US Open, 2008 & Australian Open, 2010).



While Andy Murray fans are taking comfort from the fact that he is only 1 of those 2 individuals (to have played 10 plus matches vs Roger Federer) & who have a positive win-loss record vs Roger Federer.



For record, Andy Murray still leads the head to head vs Roger Federer 8-7 & here is a screen grab (taken by @federernews ) having summary of their previous 15 matches.







So, in this article, I will be mentioning the 5 biggest things that Roger Federer needs to beware of Andy Murray ahead of their historic Wimbledon 2012 final.

[Vibhu batra]

(i) Top-spin & Side spin especially on Andy Murray's BackHand Slices



Have a close look at Andy Murary's back-hand slice






As was evident in the Tsonga semi-final match, this backhand slice can cause real damage & break your momentum if you are playing from base-line.


Also, this slice has done wonders for Murray & that's why, he has a postive head to head vs Federer & clearly, to negate this, Roger Federer will have to approach net more often.

[Vibhu batra]

(ii) On the Run Passing shots


Andy Murray's on the run passing shots can be majestic at times. See this running forehand on the match-point vs Jo Wil-fried Tsonga in the semi-finals of Wimbledon, 2012







Roger Federer needs to keep this in mind & try to ensure his shots go as deep as possible.

[Vibhu batra]

(iii) Andy Murray's defence



See this video having a point taken from 2011 Tokyo Open & you will get a fair idea on what I mean, when I talk about the defense of Andy Murray.


(video is a copyright of TennisTV.COM)








So, to combat this, Roger Federer will have to play a shot or two extra then what he usually does & needs to mix defense as well as his aggressive shots with caution.

[Vibhu batra]

(iv) Andy Murray's service



The key to Andy Murray's success in Wimbledon 2012 till date has been his flaw-less service. If he managed to beat David Ferrer in that tight Quarter-final match, it was only because his 1st serve was on song. Same thing, happened against Tsonga in the semis.


So, Roger Federer needs to attack Murray's 2nd serve as & when Roger gets a chance. I have often seen when ever Murray misses two or three first serves, he tends to get frustrated & that's when Roger has to take the full advantage.

[Vibhu batra]

(v) Crowd Support



There is no denying of the fact, that the support for Andy Murray is going to be huge & clearly, in these 8 years, Roger Federer for a change, might see crowd cheering & clapping even on his double-faults & unforced errors.


Thou, the support for Roger Federer as always will be great.



Also, Roger might feel a bit pressurized as he hasn't won a grand slam for almost 2 and a half years.

[Vibhu batra]

Having said all this, these are the biggest weakness of Andy Murray :


(i) His temperament can go absolutely hay-wire, even when a couple of things go against him.


(ii) Clearly, Andy Murray, will be under more pressure as he is yet to win a grand slam & the pressure of the crowd & expectations will be huge & he is yet to show that he can fulfill those expectations.


(iii) His 2nd service can be very weak at times.


(iv) Some times, he tends to over do the slices & that will prove very expensive against a great player like Roger Federer.



(v) & the biggest weakness in Murray's game in the last 3 matches has been his inability to put away even some of the easier over-heads away. This will really-2 prove very costly against Federer as Roger Federer makes you earn every point.

[Vibhu batra]

If some one was to put a gun on my head & ask me, what are the % chances of winning of both.


I will put Roger Federer has 54% chance to win while Andy Murray has 46% chance to win before the start of the match.



The most important thing will be the start & I believe, who ever wins the first set will have a 65% chance to win .

[Vibhu batra]

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[Vibhu batra]

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[kartnite]

Vibhu:

As usual... A detailed breakdown! Nice!

Couple of quick points, please, if I may -

As enough has been said about this might be 17th grand slam title for Roger Federer & Andy Murray being the first Brit in 72 years, I won't mention any thing about those well known facts .

» Murray is attempting to become the first Brit in 76 years to win Wimbledon (or any Slam, for that matter). Not 72.
» He is the first Brit in 74 years to reach a Wimbledon final.

Moving on to your analysis:

1.) Yes, he has improved off those wings, thanks to Lendl.
2.) I see what you mean, but I wouldn't call those as "on the run" shots. What Sampras hit were the actual 'on the run' shots. Also, just for the sake of interest, did you see the almost eerie similarity between Murray smacking that go-for-broke winner on match point and Djokovic's *shot* from last year's US Open?
3.) Absolutely! His defence is solid, but what awaits to be seen is how he uses this on grass against Federer.
4.) His serving has improved under Lendl. Check my post - I have included some stats. Federer, like you said, NEEDS to make the most of any second serve that Murray may offer.
5.) Ha ha ha, true!! But Murray is facing an opponent who - literally - transcends nationalities!!! I expect the crowd to be, just for the sake of Andy, 51% on his side. Ok, ok may be 52%. I can still remember how the US crowd supported Federer over Roddick! But they were probably 55-45 in favour of Agassi - purely because of the age factor.

» Another weakness - Andy's forehand which I'd say is weaker when compared to his backhand. If Roger gives it a good workaround, Andy will get more and more frustrated. Although he has done a good job of reining in his emotions. The Lendl effect, again!

» Finally... Something Roger can probably do nothing against! Fates! Ha ha! Everytime Andy has won, he has looked up to the heavens, thanking someone! He has openly agreed that there is something in this gesture but he is not going to reveal it even if he wins. So... I'd say Roger now needs all the good karma his fans can pass on!

» No gun-pointing from my end. I don't have a license to own a gun.

A typically Vibhu-esque post. Look forward to celebrating together.

[Vibhu batra]

Couple of quick points, please, if I may -



» Murray is attempting to become the first Brit in 76 years to win Wimbledon (or any Slam, for that matter). Not 72.
» He is the first Brit in 74 years to reach a Wimbledon final.

Thanks, for pointing that 76 thingy ....


https://twitter.com/...981628880912384


Mate, such unforced errors are quite common especially when u r writing in at 6 am on a sunday morning & clearly, when u have not slept for almost 2 weeks now ...

[kartnite]

No problem, bro'. I am used to nit-picking... As a student - that's how I used to make sure I got an extra point on my answers despite the Prof's opinion.

Kindly excuse.

[Vibhu batra]

No problem, bro'. I am used to nit-picking... As a student - that's how I used to make sure I got an extra point on my answers despite the Prof's opinion.

Kindly excuse.

Lol, ha ha, I am also learning the skills of being a Devil's advocate from you ))))))))))........


Here is another interesting unforced error of this 76,74 & 72 thingy ))))


https://twitter.com/...981628880912384

[sausan]

Oh God it will be a very tough match. please, God

[Poorna]

must be a very interesting one to watch! good one vibu!! finally more positive words to vibhu's from KArtz than the previous one

[V.K. Batra]

For ranking scenarios after wimbledon 2012, see this article ----

http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/393-atp-ranking-scenarios-post-wimbledon-2012/

[Anna]

Well, for me, the most interesting thing will be, who can handle the pressure better. Murray is yet to show that he can handle pressure when things are really tough.


Thou, I said above, that the match will be decided in 3 sets, but, I expect the first 2 sets to be very tight.


Won't it be a bit sarcastic or opportunist if I say, that as the match has a 99.99% chance of being played under the roof, we are favoring Roger Federer only because he defeated Djokovic under the roof (I say this, because before the nole match, every one every where was saying, Djokovic under roof on grass has a better chance to win).

[Inez]

As always, a brilliant easy to read article . Thou, all this time, I have been away, have actually been reading all the topics that get delivered to me via e-mail subscription. Hope, to see a 4 setter win today. Will feel sorry for muzza thou... Vamos Roger

[Vibhu batra]

For every one reading this, also, do read this one more interesting preview of the Wimbledon 2012 final ----

http://www.rogerfede...wimbledon-2012/