Prior to their last meeting at a Grand Slam, under the lights of a warm Melbourne night, the elder statesman joked... Much to the amusement and delight of the viewers: "[Andy] would like to win the first for 'British Tennis' in... What is it? Like, 150,000 years? ..."
And the aftermath [of what would turn out to be a rather resounding thrashing] looked something like this: Roger Federer would raise his arms in triumph while the vanquished Andy Murray would disconsolately lament: "I can cry like Roger. It's just a shame I can't play like him..."
As we all know... Federer would go on a surprising title drought (especially at Grand Slam level) since that festive night. First, losing from match-points up (against Berdych & Baghdatis), seeing his semi-final streak come to an end (Söderling, Roland Garros 2010), losing his #1 ranking (an agonizing week short of tying Pete Sampras' record), another loss from match-points up (Djokovic, US Open 2010) before finally landing a Grand Slam final appearance (l. Nadal, Roland Garros 2011) but again facing new "lows" such as losing from two-sets-to-love up (Tsonga, Wimbledon 2011) and losing from two-sets-to-love and match-points up (Djokovic, US Open 2011)! Not to mention he was even relegated to being the world's fourth-best player for a brief while!
In that period (Australian 2010 - Wimbledon 2012), Roger Federer appeared in a grand total of ONE Grand Slam final and that too, in a lost cause.
Not that Andy Murray fared any better. He also appeared in the same small matter of ONE Grand Slam final (Australian, 2011) and contested in yet another lopsided loss, this time to Novak Djokovic - a fellow the world did not know yet, as **the** Novak Djokovic of 2011...
But also in that period, Mr. Murray did one thing right to boost his confidence, even if by a small margin - get the better of Mr. Federer in a final. He did that, not once - but twice. Including a 6/3, 6/2 pasting at ATP Shanghai 2010. Never before (in the lead up to ATP Toronto 2010, their fourth meeting in an ATP final) had Murray bested Federer in a final of any ATP event, but that changed in Toronto when Murray defeated a valiant Federer (who was coming off a testing semi-final) 7/5, 7/5. At Shanghai, as mentioned in the previous sentence, he performed even better. In fact, Murray would go on leapfrog Federer in the rankings for the first time in his career.
Over now, to Episode XVI of Roger Federer (SUI) v. Andy Murray (GBR).
This is when we place a small asterisk. All of their 15 head-to-heads have been contested on hard courts, traditionally Andy's favoured surface. Not that Roger is any slouch on the cement, but the conditions on which Andy has won most of his titles and feels home at. In fact, the Scot (forgive me, BBC - I am only calling YOUR bluff. Andy wins, he is British. Andy loses, he is Scot) has gone on record saying that he fancies his chances more on the quicker hard courts of Flushing Meadows...
Which brings us back to the cusp of this history-making clash. Their first outside the blue stuff. No, not blue clay either. Poetic that this face-off is on the traditional tennis surface. Federer, a stickler for tradition, against someone from the country where this lovely sport originated [more like an extended garden tea party of the upper class!] on the hallowed and venerated lawns of South West 19.
Enroute the final,
» Both have dropped four sets apiece.
» In terms of opposition, Murray has faced most of the big servers (plus grinders like Davydenko & Ferrer) while Federer has played most of the grinders (plus the odd big game player like Benneteau & Djokovic).
» Federer has fewer aces than Murray (59:74) - a surprise, because you'd normally expect Roger to be aceing past his opponents on the turf - but not too much of a surprise either, looking at how Andy has beefed up his service game!
» Federer has a winners-to-errors ratio of 2.5 is slightly ahead of Murray's 2.3
» Roger is 2-1 on tie breaks won/lost while Andy is 3-2.
» Roger has made a higher % of 1st serves, but only just (66:63).
» Roger has made fewer double faults (8:17), unsurprising because he doesn't take risk on his 2nd serve although it is good enough.
» Roger is slightly ahead in terms of % 1st serve points won (79:77).
» But... May be crucially... Murray is clearly ahead in terms of % 2nd serve points won (67:61).
» And in terms of the average ranking of vanquished opponents, Murray has progressed through an opposition with a combined average rank of 30 while Federer's opposition has had a combined average rank of 42.
The last point, of course, can be looked at in a number of ways - but lets just take it at face value.
In short, there isn't much separating these two this time around. It will boil down to big game temperament. Roger's nous of being in the final round of a Grand Slam a staggering 24 times [where he has only once been defeated by a person not name Rafael Nadal] and his chance to create more history {versus} Andy's nerves on his home court, the grandest stage, on *the* big day, during a Jubilee Year.
With Jonathan Marray triumphing in Saturday's gentlemen's doubles final, you may wonder if the pressure is eased or reinforced on Andy Murray's shoulders! You can argue that he needn't be seen as the "first since xyz", because Jonny beat him to it, and so the pressure is off. But you can also say that Great Britain will be all the more pumped to see not one, but two triumphant Poms (sorry, I had to bring that adjective at some point in this article!) at the end of the world's greatest tennis tournament.
Will the resolute Roger Federer, yet again, stand tall? After all, this is where things fell in-place for him all those years ago...
Or.
Were the tricky third quarter, Rafael Nadal's early exit and Jonny Marray's triumph a sign of things to come for Andy Murray?
In any case, ladies and gentlemen, this is one for the ages. The Championships at Wimbledon will yet again prove that here is where single-handed champions of the world are crowned, where history is made and where dreams are realised.
Like I always say... May the better player on the day win.
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Play!
PS: Aaaaalllllllllllllleeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Federer! (Yes, I **had** to say that, too!)
