57 replies to this topic

[Vibhu batra]

If you reached this article, wanting to read has Djokovic regained No. 1 ranking before the start of World Tour Finals, 2012, the answer is yes. Read this detailed post to know how the ATP rankings & points look like on 5th November, 2012 & how are the rankings likely to look like after World Tour Finals 2012 ON 12th November, 2012, in this detailed write-up here ----

http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/861-atp-ranking-scenarios-post-world-tour-finals-2012-2012-year-end-atp-rankings/

If you reached this article, wanting to read how will the ATP Ranking scenarios look like post the defeat of Roger Federer at Swiss Indoors, Basel 2012 to Juan Martin Del potro, see this detailed article -------

http://www.rogerfede...t__20#entry7997

If you reached this article to search if Roger Federer will be able to complete 300 weeks at ATP No. 1 or will Novak Djokovic re-gain No. 1 ranking after China Open , Beijing 2012 or after Shanghai Masters, 2012, go straight to this new article -------

http://www.rogerfede...-tennis-player/

As I explained in my last article on how critical Cincinnati Masters, 2012 will be for deciding the No. 1 ranking, perhaps US Open, 2012 promises to be even more interesting as the outcome of US Open will play a very important role in deciding the rankings for the coming weeks as this year Basel, Bercy & World Tour Finals are to be played on three consecutive weeks.

These are the ATP ranking points of the TOP 8 as last announced by ATP on August 20th, 2012 ::

As unfortunately, Rafa Nadal is out of US Open because of his knee problems, the real battle for No. 1 ranking is between Roger Federer & Novak Djokovic.

So, every one seems to be asking :



(i) Will Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer be ranked No. 1 after US Open, 2012?


(ii) How many points will Rafael Nadal lose for withdrawing from US Open, 2012?


(iii) How much the points difference will be between Novak Djokovic & Roger Federer after US Open, 2012?


(iv) Will Roger Federer still be No. 1 if Novak Djokovic wins the US Open, 2012?


(v) What will be the ATP points of Top 4 be in the ATP Ranking points to be declared on 10th September, 2012 (after US Open, 2012)?


(vi) Will Andy Murray reach No. 3 if he wins US Open, 2012 or if he reaches the final of US Open, 2012?


(vii) How many ranking points are at stake during US Open, 2012?


(viii) How much improvement will we see in the rankings of Juan Martin Del potro if he manages to win US Open, 2012 or reaches final or semi-finals?

So, for getting the answers to all these questions, please read on ---

Edited by Vibhu batra, 05 November 2012 - 01:29 PM.
update

[Vibhu batra]

Please keep scrolling down for live ranking points updated immediately after Andy Murray defeated Novak Djokovic to win the US Open, 2012 title




Yes, Andy Murray has regained No. 3 after about 11 months.... Scroll down for exact details -----------




or here is the quick link of live ATP Tennis ranking points explaining how the ranking points of Top 8 will look like now that Andy Murray has managed to beat Novak Djokovic & win the US Open, 2012



http://www.rogerfede...t__40#entry6734





& here is the post in which I explained how the ATP ranking points would have looked like if Novak Djokovic had managed to beat Andy Murray & won the US Open, 2012 ---




http://www.rogerfede...t__40#entry6735



These two quick links are for the real impatient ones & for all serious readers please keep reading all these follow-up posts in this thread to understand how ranking scenarios changed every second before the start of US Open till the final point of US Open, 2012.





Before we go any further, let me firstly remind you how many points are at stake in the grand slams including US Open?


1. The winner gets 2000 points.


2. The losing finalist gets 1200 points.


3. The losing Semi-finalist gets 720 points each.


4. The losing Quarter-Finalist gets 360 points each.


5. The loser of Round of 16 (Round-4) gets 180 points each.


6. The loser of Round of 32 (Round-3) takes 90 points each.




7. The loser of Round of 64 (Round-2) gets 45 points each.



8. The loser of Round of 128 (Round-1) gets 10 points each.

[Vibhu batra]

How many points the Top 4 have to defend in the US Open, 2012?



Roger Federer had lost in the Semi-finals at US Open, 2011, so he has to defend 720 points at US Open, 2012.



Novak Djokovic is the defending champion as he had won the US Open 2011 , so, Djokovic will be defending 2000 points at US Open, 2012.



Rafael Nadal had lost in the Finals of US Open, 2011, so he had to defend 1200 points at US Open, 2012. Thus, Nadal will lose out whole of these 1200 points as he has skipped US Open, 2012.



Andy Murray had lost in the Semi-finals at US Open, 2011 to Rafael Nadal, so he has to defend 720 points at the US Open, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

The maximum points that :::



Roger Federer can gain by winning US Open, 2012 is 1280 points (2000 points - 720 points deduction for 2011 S.F.)


Novak Djokovic can gain by winning US Open, 2012 is 0 points (2000 points - 2000 points deduction for Winning 2011 US Open),


Andy Murray can gain by winning US Open, 2012 is 1280 points (2000 points - 720 points deduction for 2011 S.F.)...

[Vibhu batra]

So, now the one thing that is 100% certain from this above discussion till now---



As you can see the present gap between Roger Federer & Novak Djokovic is 895 points as on 20th August, 2012. As I explained above, Novak Djokovic won't gain any points even by winning US Open, 2012.


The maximum points that Roger Federer will lose even if by chance, he loses in the 1st Round of US Open, 2012 is 710 points (720-10).


So, even if Roger Federer loses in the 1st Round of US Open, 2012 & Novak Djokovic goes on to win US Open, 2012, then also Roger Federer will remain ATP World No. 1 in the rankings to be declared on 10th September, 2012.



Immediately before the start of US Open, Roger Federer would have been the ATP No. 1 for 293 weeks, so, by the time, US Open ends on 9th September, 2012, Roger Federer would complete 295 weeks at No. 1..


So, yes, for all you stats lover, 75% chances are that Roger Federer will become the first ever male Tennis player in the Open Era to complete 300 weeks at ATP No. 1 when the Rankings are announced by ATP on 15th October, 2012...



So, if you are a Federer fan, mark the date 15th October, 2012 in your calendar as that date has a great chance to witness Roger Federer becoming the first ever Male Tennis player to be World No. 1 for 300 weeks*.





Disclaimer :


* For that to happen, Roger Federer needs to ensure that he wins the US open 2012 title, as in that case, even if Roger Federer skips the Shanghai Masters starting from 8th October, 2012 & Novak Djokovic manages to win the China Open, Beijing (ATP-500) starting from 1st October, 2012 as well as the Shanghai Masters (ATP-1000) starting from 8th October, 2012, still Roger Federer will be ahead by close to 95 points in the ATP ranking points to be declared on 15th October, 2012 after Shanghai Masters.



If by chance, Roger Federer loses the final of US Open, 2012, thou, he is ensured of at least 4 more weeks at No. 1 after US Open, 2012 (if he reaches the final of US Open, 2012), but, just in case, if Federer skips the Shanghai Masters & Djokovic wins both China Open & Shanghai Masters, 2012, then Roger Federer might get struck at 299 weeks (ATP No. 1) for some weeks.



A special permission to all copy-cats that they can start updating their pages (without giving us any credit for this calculation) by stating that October 15th 2012 has a great chance to being a historic day in Mens Tennis history.

[Vibhu batra]

Now, I will start by discussion on other players :



Novak Djokovic :::::


As I explained above, Novak Djokovic for sure will remain ATP No. 2 in the rankings to be declared on 10th September, 2012 even if he loses in the first round.



Even, if Andy Murray manages to win US Open 2012 (as predicted by Goran Ivanisevic today), then, also, at best, he can surpass Rafa Nadal as Djokovic leads Murray by 3975 points as on 20th August, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

Rafael Nadal



As you all know, Rafa Nadal has unfortunately withdrawn from US Open, 2012 because of knee issues & rehab, he will lose out on the entire 1200 points that he had achieved by reaching the finals of US Open, 2011.


So, in the ranking points to be announced on 10th September, 2012, Rafa Nadal will have 8715-1200 = 7515 points.

[Vibhu batra]

Andy Murray



As I explained, Murray won't be able to reach No. 2 even, if he wins the US Open, 2012.



Thou, if Andy Murray manages to reach the final of US Open, 2012 he will surpass Rafael Nadal to become No. 3 in the ATP rankings to be declared on 10th September, 2012.



But, if Andy Murray loses in (or before) the semi-finals of US Open, 2012, he will remain as the ATP world No. 4 in the ATP rankings to be declared on 10th September, 2012 after US Open, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

As I feel, Juan Martin Del potro, David Ferrer, Jo Wil-fried Tsonga & Tomas Berdych have an outside chance at US Open, 2012, I will be updating the ranking scenarios/possibilities of all of these guys by tomorrow.



Feel free to ask any question about any other player or add any other scenario that strikes your mind or to point any mistake by me in this calculation without any hesitation.

[Vibhu batra]

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[Vibhu batra]

For Seedings and PDF Printable draw of US Open, 2012, see this post ---



http://www.rogerfede...f-us-open-2012/

[sausan]

Word of thanks is not enough for this amazing explanation.... Vibhu u r great
i wish the victory for Federer and ya wait this date 15th october
all the best FED God bless u

[Yami]

nicely explicated as usual...so another record awaiting Federer,,,waiting 4 d Historic day...Gud luck roger...

[Vibhu batra]

Well, the next 4 seeds at US Open,



Ferrer lost in the Round of 16 at US Open, 2011, so, he will be defending 180 points.


Tsonga lost in the Q.F. at US Open, 2011, so, he will be defending 360 points.



Berdych lost in the Round of 32 at US Open, 2011, so, he will be defending 90 points.




Del potro lost in the Round of 32 at US Open, 2011, so, he will be defending 90 points.



So, as you can see, if any of these 4 manage to win US Open, 2012, they will have a sharp increase in their ranking points. Feel free to ask any question or discuss any other scenarios .

[Vibhu batra]

Also, see this detailed discussion on the draw of US Open, 2012 ----



http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/625-seedings-and-pdf-printable-draw-of-us-open-2012/

[KRISHNA SINGH]

THANK YOU FOR SUCH A GREAT INFORMATION AND FOR GOOD EXPLANATION

[sausan]

after i read it again
There is a small question, Just to understand it better
you said that if Federer loses in the 1st round and Nole win the US Open, Federer will remain ATP World No. 1...so it's mean that if Roger loses in any round he will remain no.1 after US Open???

[Yami]

As far as my understanding of the article goes yes Federer will remain no. 1 after the U.S. open,in whichever round he looses(though i hope he wins the grand slam)...the worst thatt can happen is Federer loosing in 1st round(i.e. loss of 710 pts.) n nole is nt going to gain any points evn if he wins the trophy...in that case FEderer will still b ahead by 185 pts(if I've nt calculated wrong) ...so at the end of the tour Federer is stil going to have max. points nd so the top spot... ))cheers:)))
Rest Vibhu himself can explain better...

[Vibhu batra]

after i read it again
There is a small question, Just to understand it better
you said that if Federer loses in the 1st round and Nole win the US Open, Federer will remain ATP World No. 1...so it's mean that if Roger loses in any round he will remain no.1 after US Open???

As far as my understanding of the article goes yes Federer will remain no. 1 after the U.S. open,in whichever round he looses(though i hope he wins the grand slam)...the worst thatt can happen is Federer loosing in 1st round(i.e. loss of 710 pts.) n nole is nt going to gain any points evn if he wins the trophy...in that case FEderer will still b ahead by 185 pts(if I've nt calculated wrong) ...so at the end of the tour Federer is stil going to have max. points nd so the top spot... ))cheers:)))
Rest Vibhu himself can explain better...

Yes, Yamini is 100% right . Even, if Federer prefers to sleep during the first round match or sleeps mid way during the first round match (just like I sleep while working or playing ), then also, he will remain No. 1 in the rankings to be declared on 10th September, 2012 ..........


The real fun starts or as Federer fans will say, the real challenge starts during the month of October when the Asian leg of tour starts in China .