36 replies to this topic

[Vibhu batra]

As I explained in my ATP Ranking scenarios post Shanghai Masters, 2012 post, this is how ATP Rankings of TOP 20 looks like along with their points as on 15th October, 2012 ::::

As per the ATP Rankings announced on 15th October, 2012,this week (15th to 21st October, 2012) heralds the beginning of Roger Federer's 300th week at ATP No. 1 (or in simpler words, 299 weeks as ATP No. 1 got completed on 14th October, 2012 & the week 15th October to 21st October, 2012 is Roger Federer's 300th week as ATP No. 1).



Here's a special poster created by Nike on the occasion of Roger Federer completing 300 weeks at ATP #1, which Roger Federer re-shared on his official Facebook -----

So, now, the next logical question is that how many more weeks can Roger Federer remain ATP No. 1 in 2012?



Before, we go any further, let us firstly look at the Tennis schedule of Roger Federer for 2012 (which got announced in December, 2011). Here is the link.

As you can see, only 3 tournaments are left in this year's schedule.

(i) Swiss Indoors, Basel

(ii) Bercy Masters (Please note that, I can't confirm at this point of this if he will play there or not)

(iii) ATP World Tour Finals.

As you all are aware that Roger Federer is the defending champion of all these three tournaments.

How many ATP points does Roger Federer needs to defend from here on (updated after Shanghai Masters, 2012)

Roger Federer has to defend 500 points for Basel 2011, 1000 points for Bercy Masters, 2011 & as he won WTF, 2011 undefeated, so Federer has to defend 1500 points for WTF, 2011.

So, in total, Roger Federer has to defend 3000 ATP points from here on.

Also, for every one interested in knowing why I put up a question mark if Roger Federer will play at Bercy Masters, 2012 or not in spite of being a defending champion there, please have a look at how tightly these three tournaments are scheduled.

Here is the reason why ATP scheduled these three tournaments without any gap in 2012.

So, for knowing for how many more weeks can Roger Federer remain ATP No. 1 in 2012, keep reading the detailed explanation in this topic in the following posts.

If you reached this article while searching Novak Djokovic has regained No. 1 & Roger Federer is now No. 2 on 5th November, 2012, read how the ATP Points & rankings look like as of today & how will the Rankings change after World Tour Finals, 2012, see this detailed write-up here :::::::::::




http://www.rogerfedererfans.com/forum/topic/861-atp-ranking-scenarios-post-world-tour-finals-2012-2012-year-end-atp-rankings/

Edited by Vibhu batra, 05 November 2012 - 02:46 PM.

[Vibhu batra]

As you can see that Roger Federer leads by 195 ATP points from Novak Djokovic as on 15th October, 2012.



This week 15th to 21st October, 2012, thou, there are three ATP- 250 Tournaments going on currently in Vienna, Moscow & Stockholm.



But, neither Roger Federer nor Novak Djokovic is playing in either of them.




So, that means Roger Federer's No. 1 ATP Ranking is 100% sure in the ATP rankings that will be declared on 22nd October, 2012.



The ATP ranking points of TOP 4 will remain absolutely same as on 22nd October, 2012.



So, its 100% confirmed that Roger Federer will complete 301 weeks as ATP No. 1 as per ATP's weekly ranking to be announced on 22nd October, 2012. (for the week 22nd October to 28th October,2012).




Read on for more...

[Vibhu batra]

Now, is the next week 22nd October to 28th October, 2012::






As you are all aware, that during this week, Roger Federer's home town Swiss Indoors, Basel an ATP-500 tournament will be played.

Three very important things that you need to know about this year's Swiss Indoors, Basel ::

(i) This year, Swiss Indoors Basel is happening one week earlier than in 2011. Read more about it & the possible reasons here.

(ii) As explained in the first point above, because of the preponement (pre-scheduling) of Swiss Indoors, Basel, the points of Basel 2011 will come-off on 5th November, 2012. While what ever the players earn at Basel 2012 will get added on 29th October, 2012.

For all of you who might have be having doubts about double counting of ATP points of a tournament because of re-scheduling, I explained this Basel example in great details here.



(iii) Its almost confirmed that Novak Djokovic isn't playing at Basel, 2012 (or for that matter at Valencia Open, 2012). Thou, still Basel organizing committee have a couple of wild cards left, but as we explained here that Novak Djokovic is highly unlikely to take wild card of Basel 2012.




So, now that practically means that Roger Federer's No. 1 ranking is 100% safe from 22nd October to 28th October, 2012.



Also, no ATP Points are to come off on 29th October, 2012.



Thus, Roger Federer will complete 302 weeks at ATP #1 as per ATP's weekly ranking to be announced on 29th October, 2012 (for the week 29th October to 4th November, 2012).



Read on for next weeks.

[Vibhu batra]

Now, is the next week 29th October to 4th November, 2012::



As you all must be aware that during this week, BNP PARIBAS Bercy Masters, 2012 will be played.

Roger Federer is the defending champion, so he has to defend 1000 points at Bercy Masters, 2012.


But, then again, as I have explained above, even Bercy Masters, 2012 is happening one week earlier than in 2011. Read more about the schedule change here.


As I explained in my detailed commentary (which you can once again read here), thou at this point of time ATP web-site is showing points drop down date of Bercy 2011 as 12th November, 2012, thou as per my understanding & explanation, Bercy Masters 2011 points will drop out on 5th November, 2012.



So, the main thing is that this week, once again Bercy Masters 2011 are not going to drop off.


So, what means is that there are no deduction of points even during this week (as even Basel, 2011 points will drop off on 5th November, 2012).



So, now, what that means, even if Federer plays or skips Bercy Masters, 2012 Roger Federer's No. 1 ranking is ensured for this week also.



Thus, Roger Federer will complete 302 weeks at ATP #1 as per ATP's weekly ranking to be announced on 29th October, 2012 (for the week 29th October to 4th November, 2012).

[Vibhu batra]

Now, next up is the week 5th November to 11th November, 2012:


Its the week of World Tour Finals, 2012 & as Roger Federer was undefeated at the year ending ATP championship, so, he has to defend 1500 ATP points at WTF, O2 London in 2012.

Pic taken by Randerer Randi Himle



As I explained here, ATP WTF 2011 points will drop down on 5th November, 2012.

So, what practically means is that on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer's following ATP Points will come off ::::

a. 500 points for Basel 2011

b. 1000 points for Bercy Masters, 2011

c. 1500 points for ATP WTF, 2011.

Thus, a total of 3000 points will come off from Roger Federer's ATP points on 5th November, 2012.

While, Novak Djokovic will lose out only 560 ATP Points on 5th November, 2012 (180 for Basel 2011, 180 for Bercy Masters, 2011 & 200 for ATP WTF, 2011)

Thus, Roger Federer (even if he wins Bercy Masters, 2012) will lose the Number. 1 ATP Ranking on 5th November, 2012.

Disclaimer :This week's calculation is based on the explanation that I explained here(Bercy Masters, 2011 & ATP WTF, 2011 will be deducted on 5th November, 2012).

[Vibhu batra]

Presuming Roger Federer wins Basel, 2012 & Novak Djokovic skips Basel, 2012 :::


Here are some more Ranking scenarios that will arise if Roger Federer wins Basel Indoors, 2012



(i) Roger Federer wins Bercy Masters, 2012 & Novak Djokovic loses in the semi-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012 (after skipping Basel, 2012)



Then on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer will be on 10,665 points & Novak Djokovic will be 11,770 points.



Difference of 1105 points in favor of Djokovic.



(ii) If Roger Federer wins the Bercy Master, 2012 & Novak Djokovic (if by chance) skips Bercy Masters, 2012




Then on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer will be on 10,665 points & Novak Djokovic will be 11,410 points.


Thus, a difference of 745 points in favor of Djokovic.



(ii) If Roger Federer skips the Bercy Master, 2012 & Novak Djokovic loses in the semi-final of Bercy Masters, 2012 :::



Then on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer will be on 9,665 points & Novak Djokovic will be 11,770 points.


Thus, a difference of 2115 points in favor of Djokovic.


(iv) If Roger Federer skips the Bercy Master, 2012 & Novak Djokovic loses in the final of Bercy Masters, 2012 :::



Then on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer will be on 9,665 points & Novak Djokovic will be 12170 points.


Thus, a difference of 2505 points in favor of Djokovic.



(v) If Roger Federer wins the Bercy Master, 2012 & Novak Djokovic loses in the final of Bercy Masters, 2012 :::




Then on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer will be on 10,665 points & Novak Djokovic will be 12,170 points.



Thus, a difference of 1505 points in favor of Djokovic.



Thus, as per all the possible scenarios that can arise after Bercy Masters, 2012, Roger Federer will lose the ATP Ranking #1 on 5th November, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

Also, we need to discuss how many ATP points are at stake at the season-ending World Tour Finals (WTF) to be held in London O2 arena ::::



As you all know, Top 8 players qualify for the season ending WTF. Here is the qualifying criteria for ATP WTF.

Here is how the ATP Ranking points work at ATP WTF

The top 8 players get divided in to two groups.

In the Round Robin stage, for every win, players get 200 ATP points.

(as you can see, each player will play a maximum of 3 matches, so the maximum ATP Points that a player can earn in the group or the round robin stage is 600 points).

Top Two players from each group qualify for the semi-finals.

400 ATP Points are given to the players for winning the Semi-finals of ATP WTF

& the Winner of WTF gets 500 ATP Points for winning the final of ATP WTF.

Thus, an undefeated winner can earn a maximum of 1500 points for winning the season-ending ATP WTF.

[Vibhu batra]

Thus, from the above discussion, it is almost 100% sure that if Roger Federer skips Bercy Masters, 2012, then Novak Djokovic will surely end the Year-2012 as ATP No. 1....



For Roger Federer to have a realistic chance as ending the Year-ending ATP No. 1, he needs to win Basel, Bercy & WTF 2012 (undefeated) & hope, Djokovic :::


(i) Loses on or before semi-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012 & wins not more than one match at ATP WTF, 2012.


(ii) Loses on or before the Quarter-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012 & wins not more than 2 round robin matches at WTF, 2012.



Just to give you an idea,


If Roger Federer wins Bercy Masters 2012 & Djokovic loses in the semi-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012 &


then after that if Djokovic wins 2 round robin matches at WTF, 2012, even if Roger Federer wins WTF, 2012 (undefeated), then also Djokovic will be ahead by about 5 ATP points from Roger Federer in the ATP Ranking points to be declared on 12th November, 2012 & thus, Djokovic will end the 2012 season as ATP #1.

[Vibhu batra]

Disclaimer: The rankings for the week 5th November & 12th November that I have discussed above is based on the fact that Bercy 2012 & WTF 2012 ATP points will be deducted on 5th November, 2012.


I have discussed that in great details here.




If, for a moment, we are to believe ATP's web-site that Bercy Masters & WTF, 2012 will be deducted on 12th November, 2012, then Roger Federer will almost surely complete 303rd week as ATP #1 on 5th November, 2012.



But, after that the above explanation made by me holds 100% true.



PS: For every one willing to know, in that case, Novak Djokovic will hold on to No.1 ATP ranking at least till the end of Australian Open, 2013. Roger Federer's next crack at ATP No. 1 will come at Australian Open, 2013.

[Vibhu batra]

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[Yami]

Nicely explicated everything,as usual, Vibhu lets c if Federer plays at Bercy or no...

Thanx on behalf of Vibhu, Tulip...for more such intresting n informative articles do register yourself as a member here...

[Vibhu batra]

Finally, ATP has confirmed to your forum about the drop-down date of ATP points of Bercy Masters, 2011 & ATF WTF, 2011.

Here is the copy of the reply from ATP :::::::::

http://www.rogerfede...2012/#entry7663

So, now the above calculations holds 100% true.

[Wendy_redRobin]

A very thorough explanation, covering all eventualities. Looks like 5th of November is going to have a significance greater than Bonfire Night for UK Federer Fans

[Vibhu batra]

After the clarification that I received from #ATP, its now 100% confirmed that Roger Federer will complete 302 weeks as ATP number 1 on 4th November, 2012.



But, as on 5th November, 2012, as 3000 ATP Points will drop down, so, Roger Federer will be back to No. 2 rankings in the ATP rankings to be declared on 5th November, 2012.

Here is the copy of the reply from ATP :::::::::

http://www.rogerfede...2012/#entry7663

[V.K. Batra]

A very thorough explanation, covering all eventualities. Looks like 5th of November is going to have a significance greater than Bonfire Night for UK Federer Fans

ha ha, very well said ,,, Its true on 5th November, 2012, 3000 ATP points will come off from Roger Federer's ranking points, so, yes, its an one of a kind day for sure...


Thou, frankly, Fed has had such a good year, it wont matter much even if he ends the year as #2.... Hope, for a good 2013 ...

[sausan]

i hope that Federer win all the tournaments specially the WTF, it doesn't matter if he end the year as No.1 or not. just wish him a luck

[Inez]

Was a very comprehensive post explaining every thing like a classroom lecture . Thou, its highly unlikely that Federer will now play at Bercy Masters, 2012, so yes, the hopes for ending Year as No. 1 are very-2 slim for him.


Will be interesting how he plays at Basel & WTF thou.