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ATP Ranking scenarios post BNP Paribas Bercy Paris Masters, 2012

atp roger federer novak djokovic andy murray rafael nadal ato ranking scenarios bnp paribas masters bercy masters paris masters atp 1000

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#1 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:15 AM

As you all know, Roger Federer withdrew from BNP PARIBAS Bercy Masters 2012, after losing the finals of Swiss Indoors, Basel 2012 to Juan Martin Del potro & thus, it became 100% sure that Novak Djokovic will be the year-end #1 for the second consecutive year.



But, now after the shock defeat of Novak Djokovic to Sam Querrey, many people messaged me to ask how the ATP ranking points post BNP Paribas Bercy Paris Masters, 2012 will look like?






Posted Image





As I explained in another article, that Valencia 2011/ Swiss Indors Basel 2011, BNP Paribas Masters Bercy Masters, 2011 & ATP World Tour Finals, 2011 ATP Points will come-off on 5th November, 2012. You can read that detailed article here.




Before we go any further, firstly have a look at how the ATP points of TOP 25 looks like as last announced on 29th October, 2012:




ramkings 29oct.png



So, post BNP Paribas Bercy Paris Masters, 2012, on 5th November, 2012




It is now 100% confirmed that Roger Federer will lose 3000 points when the next ranking points are announced. (500 points for Basel 2011, 1000 points for Bercy Masters, 2011 & 1500 points for ATP WTF, 2011).



{yes, for the first time, in ATP open-era History, a player (Roger Federer) is losing 3000 ATP points from his last ranking points,if curious to know the reasons, detailed explanation here}


Thus, on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer will be on 9465 ATP points (150 points for Halle, 2012 will again become countable once Basel 2011 points drop-off).



While Novak Djokovic will lose 180 for Basel 2011, 180 for Bercy Masters, 2011 & 200 points for ATP WTF, 2011 & thou, he will get 10 points for getting a 1st round bye at Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.


So, on 5th November, 2012 Novak Djokovic will be 11,420 ATP points.
(updated after Djokovic's 2nd round defeat vs Querrey)



Now, many people are asking, had Roger Federer played Bercy Masters, 2012 & won it, wouldn't Federer have ended the Year-end as No. 1?

Well, my simple answer to that is an old idiom, "If ifs and buts were pots & pans, there would be no work for tinkers."



Still, if you are too curious to read, had Roger Federer played & won Bercy Masters, 2012, Federer would have been on 10,465 points & Djokovic by virtue of losing out in 2nd round of Bercy Masters, 2012 would have been on 11,420 points.



As I explained here, the maximum points that an undefeated champion can win at World Tour Finals, 2012 is 1500 points, so maximum points that Federer could have reached after WTF, 2012 was 11,965 points & even in that stage, had Djokovic won 2 round robin group matches at World Tour Finals, Djokovic would have been on 11820 points & thus, Federer would have ended 2012 as Year-end #1. Had Djokovic won his 3rd round robin match as well, Djokovic would have got to 12,020 points & thus, got the #1 ranking.


So, as you can see, even in this hypothetical situation, for Federer to end 2012 as No. 1 , Djokovic needed to win maximum of 2 matches at World Tour Finals, 2012 :).



The reality is that Roger Federer has skipped Bercy Masters, 2012 & that is the reason, why ATP confirmed Novak Djokovic will end 2012 as No. 1 only after Federer officially withdrew from Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.




Novak Djokovic will replace Roger Federer as the ATP World No. 1 on 5th November, 2012 & Djokovic's No. 1 ranking is 100% safe till the end of Australian Open, 2013.


Now, it is confirmed that Roger Federer will end 2012 as No. 2 irrespective of what ever happens at World Tour Finals.


Now, that we are back to reality, keep reading this topic to know how the ranking points of next 5 players can change after BNP Paribas, Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.






For ATP Ranking Scenarios post World Tour Finals, 2012 (2012 Year-end ATP rankings), see this detailed write-up






http://www.rogerfede...d-atp-rankings/


Edited by V.K. Batra, 05 November 2012 - 05:38 PM.
edited for letting every one know about ranking scenarios post WTF

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#2 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:20 AM

Before we go any further, let me firstly remind you how many ATP points are at stake in ATP 1000 tournaments including BNP Paribas Bercy Paris Masters, 2012?


1. The winner gets 1000 points.


2. The losing finalist gets 600 points.


3. The losing Semi-finalist gets 360 points each.


4. The losing Quarter-Finalist gets 180 points each.


5. The loser of Round of 16 gets 90 points each.


6. The loser of Round of 32 takes 45 points each. (but, the top 8 seeds who get a bye in the Round of 64 will get only 10 points in case they lose out in the Round of 32).


7. The winner of Round of 64 gets 10 points each.



8 points are awarded to first round losers only if the main draw is larger than 56 players in case of ATP 1000 Tournaments.



Also, it needs to be mentioned that the the top 8 seeds get a bye in their first match in ATP 1000 Tournaments having 56 players in the main draw while 16 Top seeds get a bye in a 96 players main draw ATP 1000 Tourny.



PS: Please be informed that the above mentioned points are valid only in a 56 players ATP 1000 tournament.




e.g. in Indian Wells & Miami , as 96 players are in the fray, so, the points allotment system changes a wee bit.


Ranking scenarios of next Top 6 players are discussed in the following posts in this very topic, keep reading.

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#3 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:44 AM

Andy Murray :




had to defend 180 points for Paris Masters, 2011,



So, if Andy Murray had won BNP Paribas Bercy Paris Masters, 2012, Murray would have been on 8510 ATP points on 5th November, 2012. (805 points less than Roger Federer on 5th November, 2012).


But, now that Murray has lost in the 3rd Round of BNP Paribas Bercy Masters, 2012, his ATP Points on 5th November, 2012 will be 7600 (180 points deduction for 2011 & 90 points for 2012).


One thing, that is 100% sure, that Andy Murray will finish 2012 at least as No. 3 ATP ranked player as neither Rafa Nadal, nor David Ferrer can exceed Murray this year.


Another Hypothetical situation which is not valid now after the defeat of Andy Murray in the 3rd Round of Bercy Masters, 2012.

If Andy Murray (had won Bercy Paris Masters, 2012) & won the World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated (1500 points) & Roger Federer had failed to go beyond the semi-finals of World Tour Finals, 2012 (600 points), then Andy Murray will end 2012 as No. 2.




Thus for Andy Murray to snatch No. 2 ranking from Roger Federer on 12th November, 2012 (ATP year-end post World Tour Finals) :



(i) Murray needed to win BNP PARIBAS Bercy Paris Masters



(ii) then Murray needed to win World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated & hope, Federer lost out on or before the semi-final stage of World Tour Finals, 2012.



(iii) or if Murray lost one round robin match at World Tour Finals, 2012 , in that case maximum points that Murray can earn 1300 points & hope, Federer won maximum of 2 round robin matches (400 points) & lost during the semi-finals of World Tour Finals, 2012.




Thus, in that hypothetical situation (had Murray won Bercy Masters, 2012) for Federer to ensure his No. 2 ranking was 100% in tact at the end of 2012, Federer was needed to win his semi-final match at World Tour Finals, 2012 if Murray had won Bercy Masters, 2012. (but, now, its not valid).



Update : Now, that Murray has lost in the 3rd Round vs Janowicz at Bercy Masters, he will get only 90 points at Bercy Masters, 2012 & a deduction of 180 points for Bercy 2011. Thus, Murray will now only remain No. 3 at the end of 2012, even if he wins World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated.



Thus, now Federer is confirmed to end 2012 as year-end No. 2

Edited by Vibhu batra, 05 November 2012 - 02:58 AM.
Murray lost, so update of scenarios

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#4 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:50 AM

Rafael Nadal:: As Rafa Nadal has already withdrawn from Bercy Masters, 2012 & World Tour Finals, 2012,



Thus, after World Tour Finals, 2012, Rafa Nadal's ATP Points will be 6795 points. (zero points from Bercy Masters, 2011 & 200 points from WTF, 2011)



David Ferrer can snatch the No. 4 ranking from Rafa Nadal after World Tour Finals on 12th November, as explained in my following post.

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#5 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:53 AM

David Ferrer: Ferrer is defending 180 points at Bercy Masters & 400 points at World Tour Finals,


Thus, if David Ferrer wins the Bercy Paris Masters, 2012, David Ferrer will be on 6030 ATP Points on 5th November, 2012.


Thus for Ferrer to snatch No. 4 ATP ranking from Rafa Nadal :::



Ferrer needs to win Bercy Masters, 2012 &


Ferrer needs to reach at least the finals of World Tour Finals, 2012 (with at least 2 round robin wins & 1 semi-final win will ensure him 800 ATP Points).



Thus, Ferrer still has an uphill battle if he is to snatch No. 4 ranking from Rafael Nadal.

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#6 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:06 AM

Tomas Berdych:



has to defend 360points for Bercy Masters, 2011 & 400 points for World Tour Finals, 2011..


Thomas Berdych can snatch No. 4 ATP ranking from Rafael Nadal on 12th November, 2012, if Berdych wins Bercy Masters, 2012 & World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated.



In that case, Berdych will be on 6725 points & thus, snatch No. 4 ranking from Rafa Nadal on 12th November, 2012 post World Tour Finals, 2012.



Update: Berdych today lost in the Quarter-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012, so post Bercy, Berdych's ranking will continue to be #6 & Berdych will have 4405 points on 5th November, 2012.

Edited by Vibhu batra, 05 November 2012 - 02:33 PM.
update after berdych lost

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#7 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:15 AM

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga



still needs to win at least one more match at Bercy Masters, 2012 to ensure his place in World Tour Finals, 2012.




But, Tsonga needs to defend 600 points for being the defending champion at Bercy Masters & 800 points at World Tour Finals, 2011.


So, Tsonga has an uphill task of defending his 7th rank as he will face a stiff challenge from the in form Juan Martin Del Potro.



Update: Tsonga lost in the Quarter-Finals of Bercy Masters, 2012, thus, Tsonga will be on 3490 ATP Points on 5th November, 2012 & thus will get down-graded to No. 8 in the ATP rankings.

Edited by Vibhu batra, 05 November 2012 - 03:01 AM.
Update because Tsonaga lost

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#8 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:21 AM

Juan Martin Del Potro:



Del potro hadnt played at Bercy Masters 2011 or World Tour Finals, 2011.

Thus, if Del Potro wins Bercy Masters, 2012, he will surely climb to a minimum of ATP 6th rank on 5th November, 2012.


& if by chance, Ferrer loses before the Quarter Finals of Bercy Masters, 2012 & Del potro wins Bercy Masters, then Del Potro will be ranked 5th on 5th November, 2012.



Update: Even Del Potro lost today in the 3rd round, so, that would mean Del Potro would gain only 90points by virtue of reaching 3rd round at Bercy Masters 2012, so on 5th November, 2012, Del Potro's ATP points will be 4080 & its almost confirmed, Del Potro will be No. 7th in rankings on 5th November, 2012 until & unless Tsonga wins the Bercy Masters, 2012.

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#9 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:34 AM

Janko Tipsarevic :::



has to defend only 90 points at Bercy Masters, 2012 & 200 points at World Tour Finals, 2012.



So, a possible semi-final or a final in any one of these 2 tournaments can take Tipsarevic to possibly No. 8 or best case scenario, No. 7th in ATP Rankings on 12th November, 2012.




As Tipsarevic lost in the quarter-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012, Tipsarevic will be on 2990 points on 5th November, 2012.

Edited by Vibhu batra, 05 November 2012 - 03:02 AM.
Tipsarevic lost in the quarter-finals vs Jerzy Janowicz

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#10 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:36 AM

For ATP Ranking Scenarios post World Tour Finals, 2012 (2012 Year-end ATP rankings), see this detailed write-up



http://www.rogerfede...d-atp-rankings/


Edited by Vibhu batra, 05 November 2012 - 02:35 PM.

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#11 Anna

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 03:09 AM

So, well explained, cant stop laughing at the idiom that you used to answer those, had Federer played & won Bercy Masters, 2012, would he have ended 2012 as No. 1 :).



May be, if Federer was playing, who knows, then Djokovic would have played a bit more seriously, who knows :). So, clearly, the next 2 interesting battles left this year are for No. 2 & probably, No. 5 :).
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#12 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 12:43 PM

For every one who inquired,



i. The hypothetical situation discussed above was just to let you know, even if ROGER FEDERER had played Bercy Masters, 2012 & won both Bercy Masters, 2012 and World Tour Finals, 12 undefeated, so then also, Federer ending the 2012 as No. 1 was virtually impossible. . .



That is the reason, why ATP confirmed Novak DJokovic will end 2012 as No. 1 only after Federer officially withdrew from Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.


ii) as the situation stands, Djokovic will regain the No. 1 on 5th November, 2012 & his No. 1 ranking is 100% safe till 31st January, 2013.



iii) For all your doubts, please ask questions here, rather than asking at all those social networks.



Iv) The Basel 2012 points got added on 29th October, 2012 , thou, deduction of Basel 2011 points will happen on 5th november, 2012. This change is because of the re-scheduling of tournaments in 2012.

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#13 V.K. Batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:17 PM

For all of you who might be having doubts about double counting of ATP points of a tournament because of re-scheduling, here's the explanation why Swiss Indoors, Basel points are being counted twice (2011 points & 2012 points for a week) in great details in this detailed post ------



http://www.rogerfede...ayer/#entry7103



#14 sausan

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 04:44 PM

Excellent explained, jus hope that Ferrer or Tsonga to win in Paris Masters

When life gives you a hundred reasons to cry, show life that you have a Roger Federer to smile.

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#15 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 07:23 PM

I repeat again that Novak Djokovic will be the #1 on 5th November, 2012 & his No. 1 ranking is 100% safe till 28th January, 2013.



Please be informed that all the Ranking scenarios mentioned above are relevant for ranking points post Bercy Masters, 2012 & World Tour Finals 2012.

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#16 V.K. Batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 09:13 PM

Update : Now, that Murray has lost in the 3rd Round vs Janowicz at Bercy Masters, he will get only 90 points at Bercy Masters, 2012 & a deduction of 180 points for Bercy 2011. Thus, Murray will now only remain No. 3 at the end of 2012, even if he wins World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated.



Thus, now Federer is confirmed to end 2012 as year-end No. 2 as under no scenario, can Murray exceed Federer's point at the end of World Tour Finals..

#17 Vibhu batra

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 11:30 PM

Sadly, even Del Potro lost today in the 3rd round, so, that would mean Del Potro would gain only 90points by virtue of reaching 3rd round at Bercy Masters 2012, so on 5th November, 2012, Del Potro's ATP points will be 4080 & its almost confirmed, Del Potro will be No. 7th in rankings on 5th November, 2012 until & unless Tsonga wins the Bercy Masters, 2012.

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#18 Vibhu batra

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Posted 03 November 2012 - 05:19 PM

For the Update on ATP rankings of Jerzy Janowicz post Bercy Masters, 2012, see this detailed write-up :::



http://www.rogerfede...y-masters-2012/


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#19 Vibhu batra

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Posted 03 November 2012 - 05:24 PM

Update on rankings of Gilles Simon -------



If he loses in the semi-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012, he will be close to 16th Rank on 5th November, 2012.



If he loses in the finals of Bercy Masters, 2012, he will be close to 12th Rank on 5th November, 2012.



If Gilles Simon wins the finals of Bercy Masters, 2012, he will be Ranked 10th on 5th November, 2012. Thus, Richard Gasquet will be No. 11 if Gilles Simon wins Bercy Masters, 2012.



Thus, if Gilles Simon wins Bercy Masters, 2012, he will be the reserved player for World Tour Finals, 2012 & will replace any player who is injured or not well at World Tour Finals, 2012.

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#20 Vibhu batra

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Posted 03 November 2012 - 05:29 PM

While Michael Llodra will be back to Top-50 on 5th November, 2012, even if he loses the semi-finals of Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.




Michael Llodra will be 37th on 5th November, 2012, if he reaches the finals & loses in the finals of Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.



Michael Llodra will be 25th on 5th November, 2012, if he wins the finals of Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.

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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: atp, roger federer, novak djokovic, andy murray, rafael nadal, ato ranking scenarios, bnp paribas masters, bercy masters, paris masters, atp 1000

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