As you all know, Roger Federer withdrew from BNP PARIBAS Bercy Masters 2012, after losing the finals of Swiss Indoors, Basel 2012 to Juan Martin Del potro & thus, it became 100% sure that Novak Djokovic will be the year-end #1 for the second consecutive year.
But, now after the shock defeat of Novak Djokovic to Sam Querrey, many people messaged me to ask how the ATP ranking points post BNP Paribas Bercy Paris Masters, 2012 will look like?
As I explained in another article, that Valencia 2011/ Swiss Indors Basel 2011, BNP Paribas Masters Bercy Masters, 2011 & ATP World Tour Finals, 2011 ATP Points will come-off on 5th November, 2012. You can read that detailed article here.
Before we go any further, firstly have a look at how the ATP points of TOP 25 looks like as last announced on 29th October, 2012:
So, post BNP Paribas Bercy Paris Masters, 2012, on 5th November, 2012
It is now 100% confirmed that Roger Federer will lose 3000 points when the next ranking points are announced. (500 points for Basel 2011, 1000 points for Bercy Masters, 2011 & 1500 points for ATP WTF, 2011).
{yes, for the first time, in ATP open-era History, a player (Roger Federer) is losing 3000 ATP points from his last ranking points,if curious to know the reasons, detailed explanation here}
Thus, on 5th November, 2012, Roger Federer will be on 9465 ATP points (150 points for Halle, 2012 will again become countable once Basel 2011 points drop-off).
While Novak Djokovic will lose 180 for Basel 2011, 180 for Bercy Masters, 2011 & 200 points for ATP WTF, 2011 & thou, he will get 10 points for getting a 1st round bye at Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.
So, on 5th November, 2012 Novak Djokovic will be 11,420 ATP points.(updated after Djokovic's 2nd round defeat vs Querrey)
Now, many people are asking, had Roger Federer played Bercy Masters, 2012 & won it, wouldn't Federer have ended the Year-end as No. 1?
Well, my simple answer to that is an old idiom, "If ifs and buts were pots & pans, there would be no work for tinkers."
Still, if you are too curious to read, had Roger Federer played & won Bercy Masters, 2012, Federer would have been on 10,465 points & Djokovic by virtue of losing out in 2nd round of Bercy Masters, 2012 would have been on 11,420 points.
As I explained here, the maximum points that an undefeated champion can win at World Tour Finals, 2012 is 1500 points, so maximum points that Federer could have reached after WTF, 2012 was 11,965 points & even in that stage, had Djokovic won 2 round robin group matches at World Tour Finals, Djokovic would have been on 11820 points & thus, Federer would have ended 2012 as Year-end #1. Had Djokovic won his 3rd round robin match as well, Djokovic would have got to 12,020 points & thus, got the #1 ranking.
So, as you can see, even in this hypothetical situation, for Federer to end 2012 as No. 1 , Djokovic needed to win maximum of 2 matches at World Tour Finals, 2012 
.
The reality is that Roger Federer has skipped Bercy Masters, 2012 & that is the reason, why ATP confirmed Novak Djokovic will end 2012 as No. 1 only after Federer officially withdrew from Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.
Novak Djokovic will replace Roger Federer as the ATP World No. 1 on 5th November, 2012 & Djokovic's No. 1 ranking is 100% safe till the end of Australian Open, 2013.
Now, it is confirmed that Roger Federer will end 2012 as No. 2 irrespective of what ever happens at World Tour Finals.
Now, that we are back to reality, keep reading this topic to know how the ranking points of next 5 players can change after BNP Paribas, Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.
For ATP Ranking Scenarios post World Tour Finals, 2012 (2012 Year-end ATP rankings), see this detailed write-up
http://www.rogerfede...d-atp-rankings/
Edited by V.K. Batra, 05 November 2012 - 05:38 PM.
edited for letting every one know about ranking scenarios post WTF
