30 replies to this topic

[Vibhu batra]

As you will be aware the season ending World Tour Finals (WTF) is starting from 5th November, 2012 at O2, London. The Top-8 players (excluding Rafa Nadal who withdrew from WTF because of a knee injury) will be participating in the World Tour Finals, if you are yet to see the draw, see it here(with the detailed explanation on how the World Tour Finals draw takes place).



In this detailed post of mine, I am covering all the ATP Ranking scenarios that can arise or change after World Tour Finals, 2012.







(Pic Source : ATP WTF GALA)

As I explained in my another article, as ATP had sent me a clarification that Basel/Valencia 2011, Bercy Masters, 2011 & World Tour Finals, 2011 will drop-down in the ATP Rankings to be announced on 5th November, 2012.



So, in a few hours time, when ATP announces the rankings & points on 5th November, 2012, the most noticeable change will be that Novak Djokovic would have regained the No. 1 ATP Ranking & Roger Federer would be on the No. 2 ranking position. Yes, you read it right, Roger Federer after completing 302 weeks at ATP #1 or 2116 days (including the 2 extra days because of leap years in 2004 & 2008) will be ranked #2 on 5th November, 2012.



This is how the Ranking points of Top 10 (including Rafael Nadal) will look like when ATP announces rankings on 5th November, 2012. This is just a brief summary, for the exact details on how the ranking points changed from 29th October 2012 to 5th November, 2012, see this detailed post here.



1. Novak Djokovic: 11420 points (Many people asked me why he got a zero points for Valencia & Basel as well, simple reason Djokovic being a TOP 30 commitment player for 2011 didn't complete the commitment of playing at least 4 ATP-500 tournaments, Olympics is not part a commitment of those 4 ATP-500 tournaments that a Top 30 commitment player needs to fulfill).


2. Roger Federer : 9465 points {yes, for the first time, in ATP open-era History, a player (Roger Federer) is losing 3000 ATP points from his last ranking points,if curious to know the reasons, detailed explanation here}


3. Andy Murray: 7600 points



4. Rafael Nadal: 6795 points (Rafael Nadal has withdrawn from World Tour Finals, 2012 because of knee injury)


5. David Ferrer : 6030 points (updated after his fantastic final victory over Jerzy Janowicz at Bercy Paris Masters, 2012)


6. Tomas Berdych : 4405 points


7. Juan Martin Del Potro : 4080 points



8. Jo-WilFried Tsonga: 3490 points



9. Janko Tipsarevic: 2990 points


10. Richard Gasquet : 2520 points (Richard Gasquet is the stand-by player at World Tour Finals site, if any of the 8 players gets injured, Gasquet will play in their place & as Tipsarevic retired from the quarter-finals of Bercy Masters, 2012 vs Janowicz, so Gasquet has an outside chance of playing at World Tour Finals, 2012 as a replacement).




Keep reading this detailed topic to know, how the ATP Rankings can change after World Tour Finals, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

How many points are stake at World Tour Finals, 2012




The players get 200 points each for every round robin match win. (So, in the group stage, maximum points that a player can get is 600 points).


The winner of semi-finals get 400 points for the win in the semi-final.


The winner of the final of World Tour Finals gets 500 ATP Points for winning the final match.



Thus, the maximum ATP points that an undefeated winner can win at World Tour Finals is 1500 points.



Keep reading this topic if you wish to know, how the ATP ranking points of Top-10 will look like after World Tour Finals on 12th November, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

1. Novak Djokovic: 11420 points



As even ATP has officially declared that Novak Djokovic will end 2012 as No. 1.




If Novak Djokovic wins minimum of one Round Robin match, he will be on 11620 points on 12th November, 2012


If Novak Djokovic wins minimum of two Round Robin matches, he will be on 11820 points on 12th November, 2012




If Novak Djokovic wins all his Round Robin matches, he will be on 12020 points on 12th November, 2012



If Novak Djokovic wins his semi-final match as well, he will be on 12420 points on 12th November, 2012 (provided he won all his 3 round robin matches, as you can see 200 points are added for every round robin match victory).



Thus, in case, Novak Djokovic wins the World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated, he will have maximum of 12,920 points on 12th November, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

2. Roger Federer : 9465 points



As I had explained in another post, Roger Federer is confirmed to end the Year 2012 as #2 irrespective of what ever happens at World Tour Finals, 2012.




If Roger Federer wins minimum of one Round Robin match, he will be on 9665 points on 12th November, 2012


If Roger Federer wins minimum of two Round Robin matches, he will be on 9865 points on 12th November, 2012




If Roger Federer wins all his Round Robin matches, he will be on 10065 ATP points on 12th November, 2012



If Roger Federer wins his semi-final match as well, he will be on 10465 points on 12th November, 2012 (provided he won all his 3 round robin matches, as you can see 200 points are added for every round robin match victory).



Thus, in case, Roger Federer wins the World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated, he will have maximum of 10,965 points on 12th November, 2012 which is still less than the starting points of Novak Djokovic.



That is the reason, why ATP confirmed Novak Djokovic will end 2012 as No. 1 only after Federer officially withdrew from Bercy Paris Masters, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

3. Andy Murray: 7600 points



If Andy Murray wins minimum of one Round Robin match, he will be on 7800 points on 12th November, 2012


If Andy Murray wins minimum of two Round Robin matches, he will be on 8000 points on 12th November, 2012




If Andy Murray wins all his Round Robin matches, he will be on 8200 points on 12th November, 2012



If Andy Murray wins his semi-final match as well, he will be on 8600 points on 12th November, 2012 (Provided, he won all his 3 round robin matches, as you can see 200 points are added for every round robin match victory).



Thus, in case, Andy Murray wins the World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated, he will have maximum of 9100 points on 12th November, 2012 which is again less than the starting points of Roger Federer.



Thus, in all these scenarios, Roger Federer is confirmed to end the Year 2012 as #2 irrespective of what ever happens at World Tour Finals, 2012.


Also, Andy Murray will end 2012 as No. 3, irrespective of what ever happens at World Tour Finals, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

Rafael Nadal:: As Rafa Nadal has already withdrawn from World Tour Finals, 2012,



Thus, after World Tour Finals, 2012, Rafa Nadal's ATP Points will remain 6795 points.



David Ferrer can snatch the No. 4 ranking from Rafa Nadal after World Tour Finals on 12th November, 2012 as explained in my following post.

[Vibhu batra]

5. David Ferrer : 6030 points



As you can see, the difference between Ferrer & Nadal is 765 points as on 5th November, 2012.



Thus, for Ferrer to snatch the No. 4 ranking from Rafa Nadal on 12th November, 2012,



Ferrer needs to reach at least the finals of World Tour Finals, 2012 (with at least 2 round robin wins & 1 semi-final win will ensure him 800 ATP Points).


Even, if Ferrer wins all his round robin matches & loses in the semi-final stage, then Ferrer will gain only 600 points & thus, Rafa Nadal will end 2012 as No. 4.

[Vibhu batra]

6. Tomas Berdych : 4405 points



Tomas Berdych cannot gain a (2012) year-end ranking higher than his current No. 6 as even if he wins World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated, as the maximum points which he gain from WTF is 1500 points, which will still be less than the starting points of David Ferrer.



Thou, it must be stated that Berdych will face a stiff competition from the in-form Juan Martin Del Potro who has a chance to snatch the No. 6 ranking from Berdych as explained in my following post.

[Vibhu batra]

7. Juan Martin Del Potro : 4080 points



The best that Del Potro can manage is a No. 6 year-ending ranking if he manages to win even 2 of his round robin matches provided Berdych fails to win even a single Round Robin Match.

[Vibhu batra]

8. Jo-WilFried Tsonga: 3490 points




The best that Tsonga again can manage is a No. 6 year-ending ranking post WTF, 2012 if he manages to win World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated & Berdych fails to win any round robin match at WTF, 2012 & of course, Del Potro loses on or before the semi-final stage of World Tour Finals, 2012.

[Vibhu batra]

9. Janko Tipsarevic: 2990 points



As explained in Tsonga's example, the best that even Tipsarevic again can manage is a No. 6 year-ending ranking post WTF, 2012 if he manages to win World Tour Finals, 2012 undefeated & Berdych fails to win any round robin match at WTF, 2012, also Del Potro's points come in to play as you can make-out .

[Vibhu batra]

The points of 5th November, 2012 as explained in the first post are after the deduction of World Tour Finals, 2011 points & unlike, every other tournament, points of World Tour Finals are always deducted after the last ATP tournament is over. If interested to know, read the exact quote from the ATP Rule book here.



If by chance, you are guessing why the Normal Ranking points & the Race to London points have become equal on 5th November, 2012, I had explained that in great details here.

[Vibhu batra]

Its been an absolute pleasure bringing you all these ranking scenarios for the entire calendar year 2012, look forward to your company in 2013 as well with some more interesting charts & lay-outs to explain you ranking even better .

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[Anna]

Perhaps, I owe the most cups of coffees to you as I have benefited the most from these ranking scenarios articles.


So, it seems that this World Tour Finals from a 2012 Year-end rankings point of view is a fight just for the 4th or 6th & maximum the 7th rankings, else all the rankings are done with.


Would have been more interesting if the No. 1 ranking was to be decided at World Tour Finals, 2012, no?

[Vibhu batra]

One important clarification, the Halle 2012 150 ATP points have become countable in Roger Federer's points, thus he has seen a net loss of 2850 points on 5th November, 2012.


For details, read this explanation here.

[sausan]

Great article, i really enjoyed reading.

[V.K. Batra]

The 200 points that even a single round robin win can give a player surely makes every match interesting, that's the real beauty of World Tour Finals.

[V.K. Batra]

Now, that after Del potro has defeated Federer & reached the semis & David Ferrer is out from World Tour Finals semis race, (read the detailed explanation of Ferrer being knocked out from WTF, after Del Potro's victory here )




One thing more that is 100% sure, that now, Rafa Nadal will finish 2012 as #4 as even if Ferrer wins his last match vs Tipsarevic, Ferrer will be on 6430 on 12th November, 2012, where as Nadal will end 2012 at 6795 points.

[Vibhu batra]

Here are the live ranking ATP points of TOP-10 as on 11.11.12, before the start of semi-finals of WTF, 2012 :

1. Djokovic : 12020

2. Federer: 9865

3. Murray: 8000

4. Nadal: 6795

5. Ferrer : 6430,

6. Berdych : 4605

7. Del Potro : 4480,

8. Tsonga: 3480,

9. Tipsarevic : 2990,

10. Gasquet: 2520..

The winners of Semi-final matches will get 400 points and winner of final another 500 ATP points. . . So, maximum points that any of these 4 semi finalists can win by winning WTF, 2012 is 900 points..

[Vibhu batra]

Here are the live ranking ATP points of TOP-10 as on 12.11.12, after the semi-finals of WTF, 2012 : (updated after Djokovic & Federer's semi-final wins)



1. Djokovic : 12420*

2. Federer: 10265*

3. Murray: 8000

4. Nadal: 6795

5. Ferrer : 6430,

6. Berdych : 4605

7. Del Potro : 4480,

8. Tsonga: 3480,

9. Tipsarevic : 2990,

10. Gasquet: 2520..

The winner of the final will get another 500 ATP points (& that's it for 2012 ). . .